Tails from the blackcountry II

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  • #1474658
    Blackcountry Kid
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    • Total Posts 37

    greenasgrass …..thanks for your kind words.
    Not anything for me at all this week until perhaps Saturday,thus the reason for my posts having been absent.
    I must admit surprise at the SP of Jeffrey Harris when posting I thought perhaps 7/1 tops.Therefore I can’t take all the credit some must go to the very generous bookies,although such odds are always gratefully accepted.
    At this time of year my betting opportunities become scarce so I supplement my UK bets by taking in Meydam turf contests with the occasional,and I do mean occasional.dirt runner thrown in for good measure.
    Thank you to all that have taken the time & trouble to read my scribbling’s but would be interested in knowing if there any others that tend to specialize in a particular area and whether this has improved profitability and/or strike rate?
    All comments welcome but please try to be positive.
    good luck to all

    #1474663
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16545

    Good winner the other day kid.

    Thankfully the AW detractors are getting less and less.

    I enjoy the AW more each year, plenty of nice types about.

    #1475094
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 37

    Thanks VtC,
    The present structure to the a/w season gives owners & trainers something to aim at for some of their horses that may have missed out for one reason or another during the turf season with a rich finale at Easter which has led to better horses being campaigned over the winter months in search of that pot of gold.
    I would always say to watch out for some of the maidens at these courses with the exception of Southwell as top trainers have used them to introduce really promising horses at the start of their career.
    When betting on the various a/w tracks one should always be aware of the differences between them like Lingfield,Kempton & Chelmsford which all have a polytrack surface but in my opinion the make up as a mixture isn’t the same in each case.Tapeta,which I think to be a superb surface is at Wolverhampton & Newcastle with the odd track out being the aforementioned Southwell which has a fibresand track.This is without taking into account of the courses individual characteristics.
    Today we have quite an interesting card at Lingfield with the only race offering an investment opportunity for myself being the Golden Rose stakes due off at 3.15.Although Above the Rest stays much further and I admit not an obvious selection for this contest so many of the others have various questions to answer not least the current market leader Gifted Master who for me now needs more of a trip than his younger days.I will say that Tinto intrigues me however previous a/w runs and stable form don’t inspire me enough to lay my money on him but in time I think we can expect better.Some contenders to me look out of their depth while others have trip concerns but with so many of today’s participants liking to be prominent or leading for me this gives an ideal scenario for the selection.Lets now look at Above the Rest e/w and his credentials for this contest and why I believe the drop in trip won’t be the problem some may think.First RPR,three from five of his top career ratings are on the a/w with all being in group company.Of four runs at this trip on the a/w ….1st Gp 3,4th in this race last year ahead of Gifted Master giving him 5lb, 5th of 6 in what looked an above average renewal of the Chipchase stakes run in a rather slow time and finally 3rd of 14 carrying top weight of 10st in a class 2 handicap.Thus is my reasoning for the selection ….you may agree….or think I’m loopy …but whatever I believe this gelding has a better than average chance of at least hitting the frame.
    good luck to all

    #1475428
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 37

    Apologies …. Above the Rest just ran nowhere near the level I expected.
    I must admit the opportunities I hoped would come about are far fewer than one could have foreseen,however there’s a gelding running tomorrow at Chelmsford who’s finally learned again where the winning post is located.As a juvenile Kingsley Klarion a late April foal crammed in six races from his debut,Oct 6,until the year end being successful in the last three and achieving an handicap mark of 82 following victory in a class 2 nursery at Lingfield in late December which on the face of things looked to make him a half decent handicapper at least.But the wheels came off big time as a 3yo in fact only a single win was recorded throughout his 3rd,4th & 5th years.Although glimpses of the geldings ability were shown during this time he slowly drifted down the handicap ladder until off a mark of just 55,claimer ridden,he tasted glory once again in good style readily drawing clear from his rivals leaving them trailing by over 3L after taking up the running at the furlong pole.There seems to mixed opinion among bookmakers as to what the win’s worth but I believe at decent odds he’s worth risking off an 8lb higher mark.An each way price should be available.
    good luck to all

    #1476443
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 37

    I’m sorry about my absence from here,just that I’ve been a bit under the weather.
    However I’m hopefully recovering now.
    Have a little bet bet I wish to put up for your consideration which runs at my local track.For those of you that have never visited can I urge you to do so as it’s facilities are better than many tracks boasting a higher profile.Easy to get to with free parking and an hotel onsite if you should wish to avail yourself.
    Ok that’s enough of the promo …to business……
    All told THREE LITTLE BIRDS has had 33 races,winning 5,7 seconds & ten thirds
    Take out the runs over 6f ….it reads 28 ..5 .. 7 .. 7
    If one only looks at a/w starts it gets better 11 ..3 .. 5 .. 1
    Considering only outings at today’s venue 6 ..2 .. 3
    While the draw & higher grade might look tough there are more than enough reasons for hope that this contest isn’t beyond her.Being a late March foal I didn’t find it surprising it took to her final outing as a juvenile to register a first victory,but my what a scalp!…….Gold Filigree,the horse she beat that day now runs off marks in the nineties.Following a six month absence a rather lack luster 3yo campaign.After another six month lay off she’s come into her own as a 4yo,although it’s taken a few races to find her feet with her last time out win being one of the filly’s best career performances to date which is backed up by the numbers produced recently.E/w looks the solid option but I shall leave that to one’s individual choice.
    good luck to all

    #1477305
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 37

    With political events over I now can have more of an input although I do have to confess to having a few profitable investments which I didn’t have time to pass on ….for this I apologize.
    Today I’m putting forward a progressive 3yo who caught my eye earlier this year as one that can rate much higher in time.This however will be the geldings toughest task to date by some margin but TOTAL COMMITMENT looks unlikely to have come to the end of his improvement yet but we have the age old argument of ‘proven vs potential’ to ponder.Although the gelding has improvement to find on the book he’s answered every call except at Ascot in Sept when the race may have come too soon and it’s this potential that persuaded present connections to fork out £200,000 to acquire him in Oct.To be fair there are negatives I should make one aware of too,stable form hasn’t been great this year,but do like the jockey booking.Not the best of draws but over this trip at Dunstall Park it’s not critical and can hopefully at least hit the frame.
    good luck to all

    #1477620
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 37

    One of the things that annoy me,although not privy to instructions to riders,is the way some horses are ridden in order to obtain a particular ‘position’ which in my opinion is nothing but detrimental to the horses chances in said race.I was confused to say the least,although I could be accused of ‘talking through my pocket’,of the way Total Commitment was taken to the front in a contested lead when the gelding’s most potent weapon has been shown to be a turn of foot,At the business end the gelding had nothing left fading away to finish out of the frame btn almost 2L into 4th.
    Why oh why do they keep doing such things?
    Moan over!
    MERRY CHRISTMAS………. and a prosperous New Year in which may all your wishes,hope & dreams come true.

    #1478079
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 37

    greetings,
    hope everyone had an enjoyable break returning refreshed and energized.
    A single race interests me for betting purposes today,although that doesn’t mean I shall not be watching Kempton.
    The final race of the card indeed the day is where I will be making an investment in the 6f class 2 Betway Conditions Stakes which to be fair looks dull if the betting is to be believed.Taking the contenders in racecard order.
    Baby Steps ….probably the geldings best showing was here in Oct when 2nd to Power Link although his numbers to date are nothing special and would need to show a big jump in form.
    Corinthia Knight …a very useful performer who’s lost his way of late and I believe,although won at 6f,is superior at the minimum trip where he’s won 7/22 but only 2/13 @ 6f.Best sf at 6f only 5th with it being 7th on RPR.Passed over today although I would say he’s the one who will put pace to the race.
    Documenting …quite a warm favourite,but I can’t have it!……From the limited attempts (3) to my thoughts he just hasn’t the pace to live with these rivals when they turn on the afterburners.Not a single top ten number at 6f and to me looks a false market leader although he does possess useful figures over 7f.
    Merhoob … is an interesting character and although reaching the veteran stages now has shown useful form this year.A funny quirk with the geldings form is that of the 8 wins registered 6 have come in the first half of the year and only 2 in the second this is despite the number of runs is split almost 50/50 (28-24).Recent runs don’t point to an immediate return to form and I’m prepared to let him run without the burden of my expectations.
    Royal Birth ….can be a most frustrating horse.10/46 @ 5f but 1/13 @ 6f tells it’s own story Comes fast & late over the minimum trip but although not been running too bad of late find it hard to believe this veteran will be taking home the money.Although is another possible pace angle if nothing else wants to lead which would increase his chances.
    Finally SUMMERGHAND … where my money will be landing this afternoon.Has never raced this late into the season,indeed never tried on an artificial surface in public previously.With many trainers & training centers having access to such surfaces I’m not worried as most seem to operate ok on tapeta…some prove even better!
    The selection has without winning had a successful & progressive season registering career high numbers which now fill the top six places.Last time out was probably his only disappointing run all year and can I believe be put down to reappearing just 7 days after his previous race.
    good luck to all

    #1478742
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 37

    First may I wish one & all a happy & prosperous New Year.
    Decided to do a summary of 2019 as short as it’s been to see how I’ve coped with writing this new blog.
    I make it 16 selections put forward for consideration with winners at SP of 9/2 5/1 11/1 & 11/2 which by my mathematics put’s us nicely ahead.Also within the horses selected were some put forward as e/w prospects which hit the frame so the profit is a little enhanced overall.
    However the horse being advanced for Chelmsford tomorrow evening although registering career high numbers last time did so at Southwell so there is a question as to whether these can be replicated on this different surface & around a bend,(Southwell is a straight 5f).But one must say the evidence is limited so no firm conclusions can be drawn as regard course or surface,what cannot be disputed is the horses 3/5 record at the minimum trip where over 6f it’s 5/20 and 7f 0/5.
    good luck to all
    ps …woke up this morning with this horrible thought!
    I hadn’t named the horse in my blog …….Tawney Port is the horse in question.
    apologies about my slip.

    #1479226
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 37

    Sorry but I’m rather rushed this morning so won’t have time to go into any depth with today’s selection being put forward for your consideration.After showing a fair level of ability in his juvenile year WASNTEXPECTINGTHAT started his 3yo campaign with a promising run but then went into decline until being tried on the tapeta at Newcastle where from a reduced mark he’s registered two quite stunning runs although both in a lower class than today.Each has been marked by a distinct change of gear which I believe can once again be used to good effect.
    good luck to all

    #1479264
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16545

    Enjoying the posts Kid, keep up the good work.

    #1479301
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 37

    Thank you Venture…plan to make it more varied and hopefully intriguing for future readers.
    Apologies but once again I find time is of the essence and cannot do the selection the full consideration deserved within this posting.For your consideration today returning to Newcastle and putting forward LOULIN.A very late April foal,I know that sounds silly considering he’s now 5,but only now seems to have found his feet after a career peppered with absences and connections finally settling on the fact the gelding is best at the minimum trip.
    good luck to all

    #1479773
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 37

    During my time on RaceCaller I started a second thread under the heading ‘reflections’ which basically describes the nature of it’s content.Although it began life as a look back over the preceding 12 months it also became a ‘philosophical’ journey to inner calm and contentment for me whatever the highs & lows life would throw at you.
    However this has been sorely tested since the 2016 referendum where jubilation at the UK coming to it’s senses and wanting independence from the insidious clutches of Brussels and their ever closer ties pushing Europe into one federal state ruled by appointed bureaucrats and a rubber stamp of a EU parliament which could be called so in name only as no proper debates take place over legislation passed.
    A more relaxed feeling that democracy had been restored came with the general election and a pledge from the new government that the referendum result would be honoured.I have no disagreement with anybody as regard how they voted in 2016 but will take to task ‘remoaners’ who refuse to accept the result and have tried their utmost to stop and overturn a democratic vote just because they didn’t like the outcome.
    The likes of Gina Miller,Bercow,the Supreme court,(what a joke they are) along with John Major,Tony Blair and sitting MP’s at the time who opposed the will of the people can now go sulk and no doubt will continue to bleat and call names to anyone who dared defy ‘the establishment’.
    You may have guessed that I’ve not been a supporter of a federal europe.I wasn’t back in the 70’s,when it was the EEC (European Economic Community) as the UK seemed to my mind to be giving up an awful lot and getting very little in return.Since then I’ve watched Brussels demand more power and money from members slowly directing them down a carefully selected path to the Federal State of Europe.Even the Euro is one big con on a step down this road,sold to the public as boosting trade,it’s real objective ….as let slip by someone in Blair’s government?
    Question ..what does every member country have that Brussels doesn’t?
    …..
    …..
    …..
    A TAX SYSTEM TO FUND ITSELF!
    Could you imagine trying to administer a system using many different currencies……a nightmare.
    So I believe by hook or by crook the EU will need to get all members to use the Euro.
    You may ask what brought on this pique to the surface today when my long held dream of leaving the EU is coming to fruition?
    Switching on the tv to get a weather update a little before 11am the tail end of the prog on at the time was discussing whether BIG BEN should be sounded at 11pm on Jan 31st.Coming to the end a viewers comment was read out ……a remoaner who said that he considered it a slap in the face for people who voted remain.I know many people who voted the opposite way to myself and although dismayed are prepared to accept the verdict.I ask you you how can this country move on beyond this distasteful period of infighting if some just deny the rights of others to think differently?
    Despite there being no love from me for the EU I am practical and don’t see any reason why the UK can’t have a free & far ranging trade agreement as long as Brussels and some EU bureaucrats get over the idea they have to punish the UK for daring to leave.Sort of reminds me of in the Star Wars films ….Princess Leia to Governor Tarkin ….”..the more you tighten your grip ,Tarkin, the more star systems will slip through your fingers..” aka more members voicing dissent.
    But my wish for this year is for those who backed remain to set their sights on making the most of the new opportunities that lie ahead.

    My other great disagreement is with ‘political correctness’ who constantly signal their virtues,as they see them,lecture others on how righteous they are,but react with indignation when someone dare question anything they say or have an opinion that differs from their own.’Groupthink’ is now getting to proportions when organisations are infected like the BBC and are prepared to push their views however bias as ‘the truth’.Why do I pick on the BBC you may ask ……?Free speech and the balancing of views shown has taken a back seat to anything ‘trendy’ which the producers,directors & presenters seem to prefer to promote.I bring this up because of a recent incident connected with a guest editor on one of their radio shows.This person was denied the right to interview a ‘climate sceptic’ simply because BBC heads had decided it was discussion over and nothing more was to be added.
    Although not all views turn out to be right or even partly right to deny them an airing is akin to sticking your head in the sand and all should be allowed to say their piece …however nutty Jeremy Corbyn seems to be.My point is simply that proper free speech ..the right to say what you believe……should be one of of our most cherished freedoms and protected by law not shut down because you don’t agree with a particular view.
    As one of my favourite comedians used to say ….”Goodnight and may your god go with you”

    #1479902
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 37

    Must admit to being slightly surprised that my last posting here hasn’t created any reaction/comment?
    I will say that at the time of writing to be unsure as to the forum’s ‘taste’ for said articles,but glad to see that one is allowed to express one’s view & opinion.
    Now to business in hand for today.
    It’s this time of year that Meydan really starts to kick in with good cards and even better betting opportunities and although the filly I’m putting forward for consideration is making her handicap debut looks likely to take higher order considering the progressive nature of the form shown in public to date.
    The first record the Racing Post gives is her race course debut at Newcastle last Sept when sent off a well backed 4/7 fav.Reviewing the race to me she looked ‘green’ and not ready to do herself justice and thus has been a work in progress since that time.However showed much more when losing the maiden tag in a minor event at Wolverhampton registering the kind of numbers needed to be involved in today’s contest.Although on jockey bookings she would seem to be the stables 2nd string I believe she holds distinct claims as a good e/w prospect at the double digit odds currently available.With only three races under her belt it’s not clear whether the drop to 6f will be best but being by Slade Power one cannot argue there’s no pace in her pedigree.Her RP & SF numbers show progress on each run and despite being off the track since mid November think Moment of Silence worth the risk as the rating she’s been allotted doesn’t in my opinion overburden her ability.
    good luck to all

    #1480104
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 37

    The way so many of the ‘tipsters’ writing for papers,periodicals,tipping services etc would look at the race under review today and use collateral form ….Storm Over was beaten a head by KATHEEFA off level weights but is now 7lb better off so must turn around the placings ….so the argument reads…….totally wrong from my way of looking at things.Since that run,Dec 19,where the selection Katheefa gave Storm Over a hefty start the latter has run and been beaten in a similar race where today’s pick has won again.Over the same trip but at Southwell Katheefa led all the way never in any serious danger and won with the jockey hardly moving a muscle or without being touched with the whip registering career high numbers in the process.Versatile as regard tactics and the underfoot conditions on a synthetic surface while on turf a single win from 13 races tells it’s own story.Unsuccessful at the minimum trip 0/5 @ 5f and the two attempts @ 7f finds the intermediate 6f perfect.A record of 6/21 with 8 places shows a consistent performer when things fall right and although he’s now racing off his highest handicap mark this gelding has probably never been better and worth the risk at Chelmsford this evening.
    Looking at the other contenders topweight Lancelot Du Lac just doesn’t seem to possess his old ability although will probably put the pace to the race from his draw.
    Calder Prince just doesn’t look to have the pace to get involved.
    El Hombre hasn’t won any race once his handicap mark goes above 90 from 13 attempts.
    Concierge just looks best at the minimum trip.
    Red Alert looks out of form.
    Shamshon best in my opinion at the minimum trip with a record of 1/21 over 6f kinda says it all.
    good luck to all.

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