Tails from the blackcountry II

[Blackcountry Kid]

Watched part of ‘the opening show’ this morning purely to get an update on the ground.Couldn’t help but laugh the way one of the biggest sprint handicaps of the year was dismissed in a blink of an eye as though totally irrelevant to viewers in a segment that lasted a minute or two?
Anyway it’s to that handicap I’m turning for the selection being put forward for your consideration.Because of the underfoot conditions horses are being withdrawn and maybe we will end up with the smallest Wokingham Stakes field in years.Although PENDLETON e/w could be said to act on any ground the simple fact is for me his performances on surfaces with some give are superior.All his best numbers have come on under such conditions with the last two,following a 560 day break,setting the standard.Off a career high mark today this is no doubt a tough task but I don’t think we have seen the best of this gelding yet and hopeful of at least hitting the frame.
I don’t know how many readers will recall the competition ATR used to run a few years ago during the winter?
It was basically a tipster comp with the winner decided on profit gained as long as a certain number of selections were made during the time the competition ran with all selections having to come from the a/w.
Anyway one year I decided to give it a go but because of one thing or another I didn’t really get started until the January when it had already been running for a couple of months.In order to try to make up ground and ensure enough selections were made in the remaining time I came up with a process with minimum requirements which was quick,simple and easy to use.Starting with no great expectations it quite surprised me ….to cut a long story short I finished in the top fifty from several hundred entries.
Then allowed it to lie dormant until yesterday when I revived the method.
Four selections in chronological order they went…
1st 5/4 …5 ran
5th 13/2…14 ran
1st 5/1….8 ran
3rd 4/1….11 ran
Today we have five selections using the same criteria,should be interesting.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

Although Pendleton let me down the method I’m trailing had another good day.the five selections all ran in their respective races with the following results ….all prices are SP
1st 5/6 ..1st 6/5 ..1st 5/2 ..L L
Nothing figures from it today but I shall continue to monitor.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

With nothing on Sunday and Windsor being abandoned the method I’m trailing has had a sole runner since Saturday which finished 2nd but that changes today with five spread over 3 courses.I shall continue to monitor.
Having a small bet myself on PEERLESS at Bath this evening who looks to have Isabella Swan to overcome who the gelding narrowly lost out to as a juvenile,however on revised terms has every chance of reversing form.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

Apologies for the lateness of this post.
INDIGO TIMES e/w …have just taken the 20/1 to a small investment
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

Just lost out with Indigo Times as a lot of bookies were paying first 5,but it was a good run and I can’t complain.
Going to Sandown for SAAHEQ e/w in the opener.This gelding has been around a while and it never ceases to amaze me that they took so long to work out he’s an out & out minimum trip sprinter,with his last try over longer being in January this year.His record speaks for itself raced a total of 46 times being tried as far as 8f on debut.In 15 attempts beyond 5f he’s never won,admittedly placed a number of times but never getting into the winners enclosure.Over the minimum trip he has a strike rate of being successful of 1/4 besides placed efforts.This is a course he goes well at as shown last time out when he registered his best numbers for a while,second highest in career.He goes well with some give underfoot and under today’s jockey has recorded two wins and three places from the five times they have connected.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

While still experimenting,which is forever an ongoing thing with me,the aim being not just to find those elusive winners but also try to cut out losing bets which not only curtail the profits but can do so much damage to one’s confidence.While one approach may do best for a particular type of race with a slight tweak it can open up a completely unexpected avenue to investigate.The method I’m looking into which started last month continues to evolve and may over time if current trends prove fruitful I will submit here for a full trial.Combining two separate ways doesn’t always bring about the desired results,however adding a third element can turn things on there head and make for an interesting project to run alongside.At present results are going the way one would hope and I look forward to redeeming my reputation here following the bad run of results this year.
Going to Ascot this afternoon to take on a William Haggas hotpot with SURREY GOLD.This colt has done exceptionally well in my book considering such a late foaling date,24 April.Having won a maiden at Dunstall Park on his final juvenile outing this colt reappeared late April when I believe only race fitness denied him a successful return to the course.This was corrected in very spectacular fashion just over a fortnight later when romping home in a Newbury handicap registering numbers that make him a player today.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

Going for a rather lightly raced individual for tomorrow’s Stewards Cup who as long as the ground doesn’t deteriorate further I believe could scoop the lions share of the prize money but being naturally cautious I think a each way bet will cover all bases.Although now a 5yo EJTILAAB e/w hasn’t had a lot of racing.Unraced as a juvenile & gelded he didn’t see a racecourse until midsummer of his 3yo career which even then turned out to be his only appearance.Sent off favourite for a Doncaster 6f maiden got up near the line to make a winning debut without looking anything special.Wasn’t seen again for almost a year when reappearing over 7f in a Newmarket novice under 10-4 against 10 3yo’s where he got upset in the stalls and with the saddle slipping shortly after the start made this a throw away race.Upped in trip for both his next two races over 8f at Ascot and although gaining 3rd in both it was quite plain the gelding didn’t really stay.Dropped a furlong for his remaining races last year and winning a class 4 handicap at Chelmsford he was only just doing enough at the end of the race for one to consider another drop in trip might be in order.After three more attempts over longer distances this season was finally dropped back to sprinting on his last two outings.What a difference it made producing back to back wins and registering career high numbers in successive races.To date the gelding has been successful on good/firm,polytrack,good/soft & tapeta so one would have to trust the trainers judgement if the underfoot conditions went soft.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

Although I believed Ejtilaab had a better than average chance when I posted here a couple of weeks ago never when my money went on @ 16/1 did I think he would end up going off favourite.Afterwards new trainer Charlie Fellowes said the horse ran flat which I considered to be a massive understatement.I couldn’t believe what I was seeing as the gelding struggled before even reaching halfway,for me something troubled the horse and he wasn’t ready for this.I would be interested in others opinion of the performance.Going for the big sprint handicap at Ripon this afternoon with MR WAGYU e/w.This gelding,although he’s had plenty of racing,has taken his form to a higher level this season registering career high numbers at Goodwood.This will be tougher off a higher mark but with the trainer and jockey doing reasonably of late hoping we can at least hit the frame.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

A course which I imagine is a favourite for many here & a meeting that sets pulses racing.no pun intended,today’s the start of the fabled Ebor meeting.Going to kick off with a selection for your consideration in the opening sprint and for an April foal this gelding has done well and I dare say exceeded connections expectations.In saying that I believe the horses overall record would have been enhanced if they had realised earlier that although he stays 6f WHENTHEDEALISDONE e/w is better at the minimum trip.Last time out at Goodwood registered career high numbers beating today’s current fav 3L in receipt of 2lb,now 6lb worse.However reviewing the race once the afterbuners were turned on he fairly scorched home putting clear daylight between himself and the rest.I have no real reason to believe the extra distance today will be of concern but having never run at York before I admit to a slight worry about the track.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

So glad to see Winter Power live up to the billing I gave her for Royal Ascot.However I’m still of the opinion that she would be even better if settling and being ridden with some restraint,not talking about dropping her completely out the back,but to have the jockey keep some of that energy for a finishing kick.The most natural target for her would now be Longchamp in October.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

When I first looked at today’s racing midweek there were a number of races and possibilities to take into account,however the rain has put paid to all but a single selection.Although not a particularly late foal SPIRIT DANCER didn’t debut as a juvenile until the third week of October at my local course putting up a promising performance when a closing third.Wasn’t seen again until the following August when finishing 3rd,promoted to 2nd because of interference,behind the very useful Llaraab in a novice event back at the same venue.Lost his maiden tag at Ripon later that month closing his 3yo campaign with two solid handicap efforts.Made a somewhat disappointing reappearance this season in a Newbury handicap before only just being caught over this course & distance in May.A return to the a/w at Newcastle in June saw an improved performance under top weight when disposing of his rivals without any undue fuss.While this gelding can go from the front but isn’t adverse to taking a lead.The jockey & stable are doing ok at present,ground isn’t a problem nor should be the course or trip.This is however a sterner task than his last one but I’m expecting the gelding to be involved at the business end of this race.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

On Sat thought Spirit Dancer was given slightly too much to do and although closing couldn’t get to the winner before the post.
Going to the seaside today at Yarmouth for a sprint where in my opinion they have a false favourite who will have class & trip problems.Following a promising seasonal debut KING OF STARS was pitched into a couple of quite hot handicaps where the soft ground seemed to do for the geldings chances at Goodwood and just wasn’t quite up to the standard needed in his next race at the Shergar Cup meeting.However bounced back in a lesser contest next time out where he made all and never looked in danger of defeat despite the RP saying ‘just held on’ registering career high numbers.Although now off his highest mark to date I don’t believe today’s race is much better than his last contest and runs against mostly out of form horses or ones that will face a class issue.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

The Ayr Gold meeting for me signals the start of the autumn campaign for flat horses where trainers/connections look at opportunities for horses for one reason or another have missed out earlier in the season and as always I will be looking out for these individuals.Just such a filly,although she’s run regularly,is CHOCOYA at Chelmsford who throughout the season has been tried in Listed events but never seemed to quite make the grade despite some near misses at a/w tracks.After a two month break and a disappointing run at Pontefract connections finally bite the bullet and allowed her to take her chance in a Salisbury handicap off a mark of 92.Tucked in behind the leaders Moore had to sit and suffer until as they hit the furlong pole switched to the outside she fairly flew home coming over the top to grab the spoils close home.The winning margin in my opinion no way reflects her superiority that day and I don’t consider the 3lb rise she’s been given as anything like sufficient to stop her.From a stable in form and which does well on the a/w along with a top jockey what’s not to like?
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

While I can just about stomach having consolation races for horses that miss the main event such as today’s Ayr Gold Cup the idea of a second consolation race is just sheer stupidity as the class of runner in yesterday’s Bronze Cup was below what one should expect for a grade 2 contest,ok I’ve had my little moan now down to the serious stuff.Hoping to carry on the good work with a lightly raced individual who only since midsummer has begun to show his true worth.It’s not surprising that KING OF CLUBS e/w is a late developer with a foaling date in the second half of April and a pedigree that suggests a trip of around today’s distance was needed for him to show his best.A Dec a/w debut was his only run as a juvenile which showed promise although he failed to get among the places.Probably wasn’t seen to his best when next seen about a fortnight later at Lingfield in another novice event when upped to 10f which in hindsight came too quick,race & trip,after which he was put away for nearly four months.Since his return in late April it’s been a progressive profile returning in another novice over an extended 8f,just missing out,before returning to Nottingham about 3 weeks later to lose his maiden tag over the same course & distance.Registered career high numbers on his last outing,the second winning next time out,with the rest well beaten off.Expecting a good run and this colt to be involved at the business end of this contest.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

There’s a horse I like from an e/w perspective for Saturday’s Cambridgeshire,however the fly in the ointment is the present handicap mark and not at all sure enough of those higher up will defect for this improving gelding to be allowed a chance to run.This late April foal made a single uninspiring juvenile appearance but has been making up for it since returning midsummer showing a progressive profile from race to race.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

Unfortunately the horse I posted about here on Wednesday,although would have made the cut,wasn’t declared as a runner.Three horses qualify as potential bets in todays big handicap with the first in my book just doesn’t cut the mustard and looks outclassed.The highly touted Chicester,on which we are told there was a midweek plunge,looks well in under a penalty compared to his new handicap mark however I’m struggling to understand where his last performance came from?While it can be said that it probably was on his favoured ground this rather exposed 4yo suddenly took a giant leap forward for no apparent reason,which to my mind needs explaining.So I’m putting forward for your consideration the relatively less exposed IRISH ADMIRAL e/w who will to my mind relish this extra distance compared to the 8f he’s been running over lately.Trained over the water in Eire for his first two starts as a 3yo,didn’t run as a juvenile,showing plenty of promise after a maiden success at Dundalk & a place in a Listed contest at Leopardstown.Moved to present connections in the second half of April winning a novice event less than a week later and arguably improved on that 3 weeks later with a place in a extended 10f York handicap.Dropped in trip for all his races since to my mind he’s needed a move back up in distance and I believe this gelding’s a live contender for at least a place.
good luck to all

[Blackcountry Kid]

While The Aga Khan’s colours aren’t seen in this country as much as they were they are over at Longchamp where I think his gelding DILAWAR e/w is cable of shaking up the principals in the Prix Daniel Wildenstein.Unraced previously as far as I’m aware the RP database records his first runs this year as a 4yo.After winning a small 12f conditions event in mid June but beaten for the only time when next seen over a similar trip at this venue.Dropped to 10f at Deauville in early August this gelding won pretty much as he liked in another minor event.However at the back end he really showed his worth when dropped in trip again to 8f he comfortably disposed of some fair opposition in the Gp3 Prix Quincey at Deauville again.The fact he will handle the underfoot condition has to be left to connections but we have an improving horse onside who I believe is underrated.
good luck to all

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