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only seven line up for the sprint, no Ertijaal. Eight will face the starter in the 1000 Winter Lightning,Rayya rematch
To be honest, those decs are not too encouraging for me, so I will stay away from this
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Good luck to everybody who won’t!Winter Lightning will be short in the 1000 Guineas this Thursday and we have some other old sparring partners clashing again, as well as Rayaa and Winter Lightning in the exotic sounding Guineas, which is actually only a Listed race. Winter Lightning was the stronger finisher last time and the extra furlong this time must surely favour her over the beaten fav from the earlier meeting.
Tangled is entered up again but he stank the place out last time, so it seems sure the Godolphin horse Zaman will be a warm order in the 7F Meydan Classic Trial. The son of Dutch Art had some good form in Group 2 races last season, running behind Expert Eye and Gustav Klimt, both prominent in the 2000 Guineas betting. He also beat Unfortunately at Pontefract in what probably looked an ordinary conditions race at the time but the Karl Burke runner up won a Group 2 next time and then landed the Group 1 Prix Morny from Havana Grey, before finishing the season with a tame effort in the Middle Park.
I suspect those two races won’t offer much in the way of odds for the favourites.
Heavy Metal did me a good turn last time and he faces much the same field again potentially. He blew them away that day in what looked a personal best to me. Thunder Snow and North America were second and third there and you would say they were thumped, however, the worry for Heavy Metal this time is that the race is an extra furlong and a half and he has never won over that far.
Comicas was also a winner for me last time and he will face much the same opposition again. Much will depend on the prices offered because Comicas had been thumped 6 lengths by the favourite the previous time they met, so you wouldn’t want to trust implicitly at too short a price.
With a view to the future I have backed Benbatl at 5/1 for the Dubai Turf on 31st March. He looks a horse going places and I can see him starting a good bit shorter. He is due to run again before that race and will surely go shorter if he keeps his sequence going.
Will wait for the odds before picking anything for Thursday.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Zaman looks very hard to beat on his last two bits of form in The Vintage(behind Expert Eye) and Superlative(behind Gustav Klimt) . The hope for Tangled fans is that a return to turf will bring about a return to form.
Certainly wouldn’t put you off Benbatl steve, looks a different horse this spring (he was not to shabby last season winning the Hampton Court)
Looks a below par card and could well be struggling to have a bet, unless the books let us in with a ‘rick’
Good luck to all
Out picking up husband returning from NEC Birmingham at moment but have had a quick look at first race and think I’m going to go:
Winter Lightning – WIN
Expressiy – Each WayHave always liked Expressiy and think she is improving.
Reverse ForecastMore later
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I’ve had a double on Winter Lightning 11/10 and Zaman Evens.
I think Winter Lightning is a gift at 11/10. I have her 4/6 myself and the Doug Watson form is pretty poor at the moment, denting confidence in a Rayya form reversal.
I am confident Zaman will have improved past Tangled and as already pointed out by Raymo, Hannon has not had a winner at Meydan. Tangled just ran as if he may not have trained on/settled in last time out.
Later on I am a bit concerned for Heavy Metal at 6/5. Having secured much better odds than that on him last time, this looks poorer value over a trip that he has yet to conquer. Thunder Snow gave the impression that he was staying on and would have got closer to Heavy Metal last time they met. There is a chance he may get a good bit closer this time. 2/1 Thunder Snow is on the cusp of offering a bit better risk/reward and I’ll hang fire until I see more odds offered.
I’ll play some of last weeks profit on the double Winter Lightning/Zaman, as I am surprised that Rayya is so close in the betting after being mown down last time. The extra distance should surely play to her strength. I would have priced it 4/6 Winter Lightning and 13/8 Rayya myself.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I have stepped in on Thunder Snow at 2/1. As I had suspected, 6/5 has seemed too tight on Heavy Metal, given the longer trip this time. You can now get 7/4 Heavy Metal in a few places.
Hills look to have gone bigger than anyone else on Winter Lightning, Zaman and Thunder Snow.
Tangled varies hugely across the boards. As low as 7/2, he is as high as 8/1 in enough places to be very concerned about it.
A double, a single and a cheeky wee treble on Winter Lightning/Zaman, Thunder Snow and then all three together.
I think I’ll leave the Sprint. Comicas and Muarrab are both 2/1 in places. That means they are 1/2 combined to win the race. Slight preference would be for Comicas, purely as the more recent winner, but I am not confident enough with the score between them 1-1 of late.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The 1000 Guineas looks like it could be a trap. I’m not sure which way it will go. The feeling was after the trial that Rayya would be better over further and Pat Dobbs wasn’t sure himself whether he had kicked on too soon. Also, once Winter Lightning goes past we saw Rayya battle back and run on well, possibly even getting back up to win with another 50 yards.
One thing that is fact though is Rayya had a fitness edge on WL that day and more improvement would be likelier on her 2nd run this season.
Put a gun to my head and I’d say Winter Lightning but I want an 11/10 shot to fill me with complete confidence much like a Benbatl 11/10 last week. There’s no doubting which trainer is in the better form though.The rest of the card is too much hassle this week.
305 – What a race, what a terrible race. Sorry if anyone is genuinely excited about this one.
340 – Two questions: Will Reynaldo improve for that comeback run (great record fresh)? Will My Catch take advantage of his low draw? Something he hasn’t had on his last few efforts. No definitive answer/opinion from me so I’ll have to leave it.
415 – Maybe if Hit The Bid was 2/1 I’d have a go but then again maybe not. Either way, 5/4 is short as even though he did run a blinder behind Ertijaal lto. Apparently the Aussie raider Shaf was Lame on his first run so we could perhaps see a different horse as that run was too bad to be true.
450 – Heavy Metal is awfully short for this distance. Thunder Snow looks the likeliest for this but North America has shown from his exploits in Britain that he can handle the distance on turf albeit it was lower level stuff, but he’s clearly better on dirt and could be a big danger at an each way price. I’ll think about this one. There’s also no reason why Furia Cruzada wouldn’t run another big race on her return after winning this last year when fresh.
525 – Zaman is a class apart on form but I’ll take a back seat on this one as that 2 year old to 3 year old transition doesn’t always work out.
600 – Blair House is another one that just is that little bit too short at 5/2 to even tempt me to have a bet. We saw last week in the final race that things can get messy and stall 13 tempers my enthusiasm.
I had to do a small write up because I haven’t had a bet and that is so annoying. Maybe I just need a bit more Clarity in my thought process so I’ll let it fester inside my mind throughout tomorrow.
Good luck with your selections!!Not going into too much detail here are my all picks for tomorrows card…
2.30 … Winter Lightning WIN
Expressiy EW
Reverse Forecast3.40 … How can you split Comicas and Muarrab
Comicas really loves Meydan still a young horse and Muarrab, multiple trainers and now a 9yo!!..Comicas – WIN
Muarrab – Reverse Forecast4.15 … Dutch Masterpiece
Any horse that has beaten Jordan Sport is worth another go4.50 … Thunder Snow – WIN (NAP)
Grendisar – EW
Away from his beloved Lingfield where his performance has been a bit lack lustre of late…Who knows what a bit of Meydan sunshine might do for him tomorrow.5.25 … Zaman will probably romp home but Expert Eye did not live up to his billing when appearing at Newmarket for his last run of the season, soit has to be…
Racing Country – WIN
Zaman
Reverse Forecast6.00 …Banksea – WIN
Certainly prefer this one over Blair House who can be unrealiable.
Primero – Each Way
Reverse Forecast
Always like a David O’Meara challenger. He’s been held up with lots to do last two races, would like to see him more prominent tomorrow as he may struggle in rear here.Hoping not to draw a complete blank this week, taken one or two chances with the each ways but fingers crossed and will enjoy seeing how they go through the afternoon.
Good luck ‘N’, Chivers and Steve and everyone else playing…Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...GL Jac,steve chivers and all. Prices of some I had on my mind are to short to play today.
Did manage to get around a few shops last night a managed to get a few pennies EW on Basateen at 10s in the 6.00.
Although I am not a dirt player, i am looking forward to the rematch in the 1000.
With Chivers in the sprint, chatting over the race with my son last night and said can we believe Hit The Bid’s latest effort? He said at 2s he is a play but at current prices will sit and watch.Finally Zaman is a stand out in the (5.25) but again the odds temper my enthusiasm
Lets hope the thread can keep churning out the winners
Looking at Chivers and N’s confidence in Hit The Bid have thrown him into a £5 Acca with the big 3.
Winter Lightning, Thunder Snow and Zaman.The bookies will be crying into their empty satchels if these four power houses romp home but it always seems that something comes out of the pack to save them so hopefully the each way bets and R/F’s will cover it.
All will be revealed later.
Have fun..JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I really don’t like Blair House in the last for today, I want to take him on. He seems to run very well fresh (I backed him last time out), but I can’t see him backing it up, after twenty one days. He takes a chunk out of the market, so I’ve taken a chance on the Singapore runner Gilt Complex @ 10-1 with a saver on Banksea.
Good luck all.
GL Nausered
I see Librisa Breeze has been entered for the Al Quoz sprint been put in at around 7/1 with PP, still no sign on oddschecker though
Hi all,
Short and sweet from me:
14.30 Winter Lightning
15.05 Sea Skimmer
15.40 Muarrab
16.15 Dutch Masterpiece
16.50 Thunder Snow
17.25 Zaman
18.00 ElhaameGood luck players
Hi all Good Luck today folks.
Looks to me that a few skinny ones could win today which is not ideal for me
In the 2.30 a am siding with Winter lightning at 11/10 in what looks a match but have to have an each way on Expressiy at 16/1 in case the front two blow out!!
3.05 I think Grand Argentier could lead all the way from a decent draw and 16/1 looks a big price to me. Also have backed Dehbashi at 10/1 to pick up the pieces if they go to fast up front.
3.40 No bet but if there had been eight runners I would have backed My Catch each way.
4.15 Once again no bet as Hit the Bid is too short but I think it will win.
4.50 Shame there is a non runner reducing it to seven as I was going to back North America each way at 9/2 but with the non runner I have missed the price so once again no bet!
5.25 I have backed two in this race each way four places. Racing Country at 6/1 is my main bet with a smaller interest on Picture No Sound at 40/1
6.00 Again two in this each way four places Banksea at 11/2 and Sanshaawes at 25/1. The last named won this last year off a pound higher and has Christophe back on board today!!
Be Lucky Folks
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