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13:30 Steps to Freedom
14:05 Cue Card
14:40 Magnanimity
15:20 Zarkandar (nap)
16:00 Scotsirish
16:40 Quevega
17:15 Bless the Wings

[venjee]

I’m going to take a chance Consigliere (FR) will stay the 3miles at Kempton he seems to have a lot going for him small field all wins in races of 10 or less, Tom Scudamore has won on him 5 times the only thing I’m worried is that he has never won over 3 miles but I suppose if he is going to win a 3mile race Kempton is as good a place as any.
The one I am worried about is Sarando if he is in anything like the form of his Aintree run last year I think he is a live contender.
Mount Oscar might run well also.
Nothing like covering all your bases lol.

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Anybody got any views on Consigliere (FR)
I’m thinking if the race cuts up and there is 10 or less runners he might have a squeak!
The only problem is he has’nt won over 3 miles although he did run quite well in the Peter Marsh on heavy ground.

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Thanks for the reply Blues
Personally I do not take weight into account with my ratings as most books I have read it appears that weight is not to much of a issue to affect the ratings in any way?
I use the american method for my ratings it is not perfect but my strike rate is acceptable so far this year. 26 bets 9 wins 34%
I have sourced the book you mentioned will have a read when it comes.

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Blues Brother

Have you read Andrew Beyer’s book Beyer on Speed?
Because this is how he works his speed ratings out.
Where a lenght is worth say for (I have rounded)
Ascot 5f 3.5 Epsom 3.8 York 3.6
Ascot6f 2.8 Epsom 3.0 York 2.9
Ascot7f 2.4 Epsom 2.6 York 2.5
Ascot8f 2.1 York 2.1
Based on standard times for each different course.This will vary some what.
Now do you take into account weight when you do your ratings?
Or do you ignore what weight a horse has carried in each of its races?

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My two for the national are Planet of Sound ran a really good race in the Hennessy at Newbury
I also like the look of On His Own that is if he runs?

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I honestly can’t see Magnanimity beating Boston’s Angel they have met at least 3 times and Boston’s has come out on top each time?
Boston is a general 7’1 I would rather take a chance with him.
The only one I would be worried about, would be Quel Espirit if his jumping does’nt let him down!!

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Here are my thoughts for what there worth!!!
On offical ratings

Kauto Star 183
Long Run 182

The rest are at least 14 points below Kauto Star.

So are we to assume the race is just between these two.

I can only find 6 horses that have won back to back Gold Cups since 1924 so is Long Run up there with the likes of
Best Mate,L’Escargot,Arkle and Cottage Rake?

I’m wondering if Kauto Star is going to go out on a winning note and then be retired.
Of the others the only one that might be of interest if he runs is Grand Crus given his time in the deltham was better than Kauto’s in the King George.

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My first ever ante post bet and the horse is a non runner lol

Anyway I was thinking anyone remember this horse

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zT6FLppRHik

Maybe the pipe team thinking to look after Grand Crus and not overface him? with what happened to Gloria Victis.

Anyway My revised bet if I have one it might be Time For Rupert,

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Zarkava

Everybody is entitled to there point of view.

What is wrong with Nick Mordin?

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I suggest reading a few books like:-
Beyer on Speed
Picking Winners
The Winning Horse Player

All by Andrew Beyer

Also there are a couple by Nick Mordin that are worth a look.

I believe there are chapters on the effect of weight on horse’s in races!!

Hope this helps

[venjee]

Here’s my two penny worth

I think Diamond Harry & Time for Rupert need it soft to bring the best out of them don’t think thats going to happen forecast is dry for the weekend.

Captain Chris was btn 10 lenghts by Silvinico Conti over hurdles at chepstow Oct 2010 Grand Crus bt this horse in the Feltham By 2.25 lenghts.

None of the others appeal to me.

So Grand Crus is my selection missed the 5’2 maybe settle for 9’4

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Hi all long time since I last posted anything everybody is going on about AL Ferof and Finian’s Rainbow.
What about Somersby only beaten a sh at levels by Master Minded in this last year are the two above as good or better than Master Minded?
At A best price of 6’1 I think I would take a chance with Somersby,
Your Thoughts?

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Power @ 3’1 has the form in the book.
But possibly Spiritual Star might be the fly in the ointment just looked at the run at Newmarket and he could not have won any easier.

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Casper Netscher looks tempting @ 5’1
3’4l behind him in the Mill Reef was Saigon best price 20’1 maybe a little each way

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Anyone think 33’1 for Treasure Beech is to big 2nd in the English Derby and winner of Irish Derby.
Not that far behind Reliable Man.
I quote "His trainer thought this may have come too soon after hard races at Epsom and the Curragh, and he is likely to give the colt a break now."
Then wins a Grade 1 in America.

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Personally I think Best Terms might get beaten!!
If the ground is good to firm or possibly firm Shumoos at a best price 12’1 is a better bet only beaten a short head

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