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The Racing Post Chase takes place on Saturday and is reasonably strong on trends.
KF makes Hectors Choice [/color:3bjagndw]his selection and after backing him the last thrice I can see why however he misses a vital trend for me so I will leave him and bang him in a RFC cometh the day.
2 that catch my eye are:
Cannington Brook[/color:3bjagndw] now that the Tizzard yard appear to have picked up a bit, BUT the main selection is from a Southern trainer who does well in this area:
FRUITY O’ROONEY[/color:3bjagndw] was extremely unlucky not to win LTO after the saddle slipped and the jock did very well to finish! For me he meets all the criteria required and at 12s is a comfortable EW selection.
Disgusting aftertiming by me but after I read Hold On Julio would be out and I realised they weren’t running Captain Chris and Nacarat is about 2 stone worse than he was last year, I thought there’d be a bit of value knocking about, so I quickly jumped on Planet of Sound twice at 10s. I don’t rate anything else in the field.
I think it’s a shockingly poor renewal and i’ll say again – yet another big race without a Henderson runner.
There must be horses in that yard going stir crazy.
Hector’s Choice each way at 11-1 as it needs to place for the National and the trip and course should suit.
The Racing Post Chase takes place on Saturday and is reasonably strong on trends.
KF makes
The trend being the trip I guess GDC?
Just watch him running up the Cheltenham hill against this years Grand National Winner,he wasn’t stopping!
Jennie Cavendish must have been pulling her hair out when Fiendish Flame was given a mark of 150 after beating a 135 rated horse. That was 5lbs higher than his best rating after beating Calgary Bay 8 lengths. He does look like he’s going places so I’m going to ignore his new mark
Last time out he made all, made Long Run look like the best jumper in the world when he hit just about every fence on the course and all but demolished one of them.
He has never attempted 3 miles before but he looked like he could have gone round again when racing over 2m4f.
tbh it looks a crap renewal to me and while Planet of Sound is the most obvious one to beat Fiendish Flame gets 9lbs which could be crucial in the closing stages if he gets an easy lead.
I doubt if Nacarat will want to be too prominent too early which might just allow Fiendish Flame a bit of rope.
Not backing him until the decs are out as I have no idea if she will run him.
Race has certainly cut up a bit, but there have been worse renewals of this…….but not many.
My early preference would be Seabass, who I don’t thinks finished improving, however, couldn’t possibly rule out Planet of Sound, Consigliere, or Deep Purple.
At this stage…..tricky
I would have liked Nacarat if he had dropped just a little more in the weights. This looks like a fairly weak renewal so he still has some hope, though.
I haven’t looked in detail yet, but apart from the obvious allure of Seabass, I like
Billie Magern
at the bottom. After being targeted at the race, he ran very well (staying-on) in the Paddy Power Gold Cup from out of the weights. Perhaps he was the victim of the
Twiston-Davies Christmas slowdown
when lifeless afterwards, but came back to form when staying on behind The Giant Bolster recently.
It looks like Billie Magern will benefit from stepping up to three miles, he is on a winnable mark, the trainer has had a recent winner of this race and it looks like a weak year. I haven’t looked at the prices yet but I guess Billie Magern will be quite juicy.
Notorious for top weights and good ground specialist and a cut above this field, Planet of Sound for the taking. Might have to have a go on this even at the 5-1.
Michel Le Bon is decent and jumps dam well. quite short after the way he emptied in the hennessy.
Disgusting aftertiming by me but after I read Hold On Julio would be out and I realised they weren’t running Captain Chris and Nacarat is about 2 stone worse than he was last year, I thought there’d be a bit of value knocking about, so I quickly jumped on Planet of Sound twice at 10s. I don’t rate anything else in the field.
Two lots of after-timing within a week, new record. Like Planet of Sound, but can not have him at 5/1. Hennessy form working out rather poor. Fruitey O’ Rooney and Deep Purple appeal at current prices.
JJM, is there any point to your observations? I saw you’d posted and somehow knew you’d make a mention of my post.
But if I must…it’s only a tenner at 10s ffs. Don’t even care about the race.
I’m not going to lie about any bets I’ve placed for the simple reason of why would I lie about any bets I’ve placed? I’ve got the money to place them, and if I didn’t, I’d lower my stakes.
You need to stop being so suspicious.
I put my Betfair Balance up but then thought better of it cos you’d probably go silly buggers again.
Stop taking life so friggin seriously Zark you’ll have a heart attack
KF: That and he has not won a Class 2 or above event
I was on him small EW at Chelts and he flew but never looked like winning, agree he looks a nice EW bet and will deffo have him in my RFC
I would have liked Nacarat if he had dropped just a little more in the weights. This looks like a fairly weak renewal so he still has some hope, though.
I haven’t looked in detail yet, but apart from the obvious allure of Seabass, I like
Billie Magern
at the bottom. After being targeted at the race, he ran very well (staying-on) in the Paddy Power Gold Cup from out of the weights. Perhaps he was the victim of the
Twiston-Davies Christmas slowdown
when lifeless afterwards, but came back to form when staying on behind The Giant Bolster recently.
It looks like Billie Magern will benefit from stepping up to three miles, he is on a winnable mark, the trainer has had a recent winner of this race and it looks like a weak year. I haven’t looked at the prices yet but I guess Billie Magern will be quite juicy.
I’m with you there – I am an ardent NTD fan (as my avatar suggests!) and he has a good record in this race. Good ground is key to this horse so will wait to see what the weather has in store before having a bet.
Billie Magern has been begging for 3 miles since being dropped back down in trip at the start of the season. I understand he won over 2, 5 at Cheltenham, but that hill can make any race feel half a mile longer. Plus he’s won a couple of times at this distance, so absolutely no worries there. 20’s is value.
I reckon Deep Purple is past the 3 mile stage of his life. Might just get outpaced.
Billie Magern has been begging for 3 miles since being dropped back down in trip at the start of the season. I understand he won over 2, 5 at Cheltenham, but that hill can make any race feel half a mile longer. Plus he’s won a couple of times at this distance, so absolutely no worries there. 20’s is value.
I reckon Deep Purple is past the 3 mile stage of his life. Might just get outpaced.
Twiston-Davies is in worse form than Nicholls. Several horses running a few stone below their ratings.
Anybody got any views on Consigliere (FR)
I’m thinking if the race cuts up and there is 10 or less runners he might have a squeak!
The only problem is he has’nt won over 3 miles although he did run quite well in the Peter Marsh on heavy ground.Billie Magern has been begging for 3 miles since being dropped back down in trip at the start of the season. I understand he won over 2, 5 at Cheltenham, but that hill can make any race feel half a mile longer. Plus he’s won a couple of times at this distance, so absolutely no worries there. 20’s is value.
I reckon Deep Purple is past the 3 mile stage of his life. Might just get outpaced.
Twiston-Davies is in worse form than Nicholls. Several horses running a few stone below their ratings.
Had a 16/1 winner the other day, wouldn’t worry too much about the stable form, especially in a big race, BM will be well primed. NTD never does well mid season historically; always has been a start/end of jumps season yard. Watch them pick up 2 or 3 winners at the festival.
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