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Newish to racing, could do with a few pointers

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  • #20843
    jibbyreznor
    Member
    • Total Posts 3

    Hello guys,

    I’ve really enjoyed looking round the forum and feel it is the best place to come to when in need of advice about horse racing. Which leads me onto my first post and some queries.

    A little about me first, I’ve only been into horse racing past year. I normally do well out of it, I have a strict system of how much I put on a horse and how often I do it. Lately though things have been going down hill and feel I may be doing something wrong. So i was hoping for a few pointers from you guys.

    Firstly I dont use systems as such. My system is studying form on racingpost website then onto attheraces.com for their study. I then normally compare the two and make my selection. Firstly is this a good way of doing it?

    Secondly, handicaps are becoming a nightmare for me. I think I may have not grasped the effect weight has on a horse. I will use an example of a race I had a bet on not an hour ago at Leicester.

    For the full race card heres a link:
    http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards … ceTabs=sc_

    Now i will try and explain how I came to my selection and what could have gone wrong.

    1.Drom 12-4 100
    2.Cesium 11-12 94
    3.Rustic Gold 11-4 86
    4.Carriglea Wood 11-3 H/C debut
    5.Esteem 10-11 79
    6.Glenfly 10-5 73
    7.My Faithful Annie 10-1 69
    8.Ilongue 10-0 64
    9.Cloonavery 10-0 64
    10.Kilfinnan Castle 10-0 63
    11.Ben Travato 10-0 46

    The result was
    1.Drom 2/1
    2.Kilfinnan Castle 12/1
    3.Cesium 9/2
    Esteem, The Favourite unseated
    Carriglea Wood – My selection forth.

    Now lets examine the winner, Drom.
    Drom was up in trip from 17 to 20f. He was rasied 7lb for winning last time out. He was different ground, heavier than used to. His mark of 100 is the highes he has ever had. He only won by 3 lengths last time out and he front runs. I just looked at him and thought no I can’t possibly back him. Yet he wins! why? Everything points to him not being able to back it up.

    The second horse is equally baffling. Kilfinnan Castle hadnt won for two years. and according to the racing post comments "out of the weights, others prefered" What does out of the weights mean? I always thought this was a negative thing so put a line straight through him.

    So yeah sorry if this sounds like a bit of a rant, its just it keeps happening, I don’t want to keep coming forth. I’m not asking for a mathmatical genius system or a complicated explanation of weights. Just some pointers into where you think I went wrong.

    Thanks for any help guys,

    Jibby

    #388110
    venjee
    Participant
    • Total Posts 116

    I suggest reading a few books like:-
    Beyer on Speed
    Picking Winners
    The Winning Horse Player

    All by Andrew Beyer

    Also there are a couple by Nick Mordin that are worth a look.

    I believe there are chapters on the effect of weight on horse’s in races!!

    Hope this helps

    #388117
    Zarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4704

    Jesus, the guy asks about a handicap and you recommend a Nick Mordin book to him!?!

    Jibby, welcome to the forum. I don’t know anything about handicaps, can’t stand them, but in the case of Kilfinnan Castle, he ran off 9-11 (declared with 10-0, but the 3lb claiming jockey brings it down to 9-11). However, if you look just underneath the race card, you’ll see something called a Long Handicap. This shows you what the horses would be running off if a 10-0 minimum weight rule wasn’t in effect.

    So Kilfinnan Castle should’ve been running off 9-9 but he ran off 9-11. This is what’s meant by ‘out of the weights’.

    Drom could’ve just been a progressive horse who improved for the step-up in trip. Heavy ground also means it’s harder for horses to come from behind.

    #388127
    venjee
    Participant
    • Total Posts 116

    Zarkava

    Everybody is entitled to there point of view.

    What is wrong with Nick Mordin?

    #388176
    Zarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4704

    Tongue-in-cheek, Venjee ;)

    #388178
    GDC
    Member
    • Total Posts 942

    Jibby: Firstly welcome :D and also good to see you manage your gambling! Best advice I was given over 30 years ago was only bet with what you can afford!

    For me a few pointers that assist me are:

    Once you have made a selection check to ensure the trainer is in good form, if on the cold list or not had a winner for a while I would take a watching brief or have a very small wager!

    2ndly the same applies to the jockey!!

    Handicaps are a complete nightmare, you have so many ponderables to take into account and weigh up that it can take ages, Pricewise is well worth a look :wink:

    Horses for courses and trainers for courses will also help you out a lot!! You can find all the required details on Sporting Life website or in the Racing Post mate.

    Good luck and happy punting :lol:

    #388180
    graysonscolumn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6965

    Now lets examine the winner, Drom.
    Drom was up in trip from 17 to 20f. He was rasied 7lb for winning last time out. He was different ground, heavier than used to. His mark of 100 is the highes he has ever had. He only won by 3 lengths last time out and he front runs. I just looked at him and thought no I can’t possibly back him. Yet he wins! why? Everything points to him not being able to back it up.

    A few thoughts spring immediately to mind;

    1) The ground at Leicester was only heavy on the hurdles course – it was mostly good with the odd good to soft bit on the chase equivalent. As such, it wouldn’t have been completely far removed from the good to soft he encountered at Towcester.

    There is a small handful of courses on which you can get this massive variance between racing surfaces over hurdles and over fences – Leicester is certainly one, and Folkestone can be as well. In both those examples, the hurdles track will have been used for the Flat during the summer and taken a greater amount of hammer consequently.

    2) A step up to the extended 2m4f of Leicester was still within Drom’s stamina compass judged on his endeavours in Point-to-Points in previous years. Wins at Black Forest Lodge (sharpish, undulating, right-handed Devon course), Whitwick Manor (left-handed stayers’ track), Ashorne (nice, fair, right-hander) and Buckfastleigh (ex-Rules course; right-handed and tight) were all gained over the full Pointing distance of 3m and all on good or good to soft going.

    3) All of those Pointing wins were gained making all, which would have taken a bit of doing at the testing line at Whitwick in particular.

    4) The gelding’s two wins in the last few days have been gained on his first two starts for Robin Dickin, having previously run (including in Points) for Paul Davies. Whilst Dickin is at pains to point out he can’t claim this to be a great training feat on his part, as he’s not had Drom for very long (last ran for Davies on December 14th), it does actually look like his new recruit has benefitted from a change of scenery.

    Davies is far from incapable, as his exploits with the likes of Cannon Bridge will confirm, but at the same time he remains winless as a trainer outside of Points and hunter chases since taking out a full license earlier this season.

    gc

    The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.

    #388207
    Leeknowles1
    Member
    • Total Posts 100

    Hi there, in a bit of a rush but will scan through this properly later on, so apologies if its already been brought up,

    A pointer towards the WEIGHTS of horses, The old saying is that a 3lb claim is a length over a mile, so for example if a horse runs a mile handicap rated 83.. and gets beat a length… say he then gets dropped 3lb to a rating of 80, and then a 3lb claimer rides it next time, hes effectivley rated 6lb better than last time, and if everything goes to plan, will be 2lengths better off over a mile next time… that being said dont rely on claimers!

    or in another case, a horse wins over a mile by 1ength rated 80… and the horse that came 2nd was rated 80 also.. if the winner gets put up 6lb and the 2nd horse does not, if they run again over a mile.. the winner is effectively 2 lengths worse of if the 2 horses run again!

    but obv different factors come into play with track, jockey, conditions and many more!

    But that is the theory for weights, at the end of they day, Weight will stop any horse! this is just a round figured example!

    Good luck

    #388246
    Coggy
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1293

    Welcome to he forum mate.
    I may be a seasoned cynic but I would advise that you treat all handicaps, and especially lower grade ones, with a healthy degree of suspicion.
    Even if one believes that every horse is running on its merits / at full potential, there are a sizeable proportion of inconsistent and / or ungenuine types who may not be in love with the game (and thats just the horses, before you even consider the connections, lol).
    There are a number of form students on here who are definitely worth listening to (sadly I am not one of them).
    I was also given the same advice as mentioned earlier re don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. There is a law of inevitable consequence that dictates that when you really need to win, you never do, and generally it comes equipped with bad luck also.
    I would advise keeping records and reviewing them , especially your losers. Always be sceptical of those with supposed inside information as generally they have no such thing. Even when you may be party to first or second hand genuine good info on a horses chances remember that they are horses not machines, and things can, and do go wrong.
    Good luck with your future bets and enjoy the forum.

    #388282
    jibbyreznor
    Member
    • Total Posts 3

    Hey guys,

    Big thanks to all that replied. I think I have resolved my issue with weight now and indeed front runners.

    I had one that won today actually – 3.00 Hereford : Quinte Du Chatelet (for future reference)

    I do agree that there certainly is no exact science to picking winners. The favourite in the race i just mentioned came 6th, miles away.

    If i need any more advice I’ll know where to come. Thanks again everyone.

    Jibby

    #388311
    aji
    Member
    • Total Posts 469

    Jibby – low-grade handicaps are a nightmare. Apart from the stuff that you can research there is the big unknown – do the connections want the horse to win today? Is it running here to win, or to improve its mark for a future race?

    #388341
    Himself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3777

    Be selective, very selective. Stick mainly to better class non handicaps. Narrow the field down by separating the wheat from the chaff. Don’t take too much heed what Hurdygurdyman and Gingertipster have to say and you won’t go too far wrong :lol: – and remember, there IS such a thing as a certainty ! :wink:

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #388346
    Ghost of Rob V
    Participant
    • Total Posts 825

    Pointer Jibs?

    Putin in the 4:35 at Kempton today! :P

    #388366
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    Rob of course meant you to lay Putin not back it he gets confused sometimes :lol:

    Only advice I would give to anyone nowadays is forget you are a punter. You should wear as many faces as possible. Ew Lays, Lays win bets, place only bets, trade in running just make your mind up what your best option prior to each race and go with it.

    Oh! and don’t forget to back me selections in big races just ask my old mate Zarkava he’ll tell u I’m a genius :P unfortunately all my other selections get beat and I am now living in a wooden shed in the middle of flea infested jungle in Thailand with no electricity or running water :mrgreen:

    #388367
    Ghost of Rob V
    Participant
    • Total Posts 825

    LMAO Hurdy! :lol:

    #388370
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28423

    Don’t take too much heed what Hurdygurdyman and Gingertipster have to say and you won’t go too far wrong :lol:

    You’re half right there H, which is pretty good for you. :lol:

    And I hadn’t even said a word. Which is unusual for me. :wink:

    Value Is Everything
    #388387
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28423

    Hello guys,

    I’ve really enjoyed looking round the forum and feel it is the best place to come to when in need of advice about horse racing. Which leads me onto my first post and some queries.

    A little about me first, I’ve only been into horse racing past year. I normally do well out of it, I have a strict system of how much I put on a horse and how often I do it. Lately though things have been going down hill and feel I may be doing something wrong. So i was hoping for a few pointers from you guys.

    Firstly I dont use systems as such. My system is studying form on racingpost website then onto attheraces.com for their study. I then normally compare the two and make my selection. Firstly is this a good way of doing it?

    Secondly, handicaps are becoming a nightmare for me. I think I may have not grasped the effect weight has on a horse. I will use an example of a race I had a bet on not an hour ago at Leicester.

    I just looked at him and thought no I can’t possibly back him. Yet he wins! why? Everything points to him not being able to back it up.

    The second horse is equally baffling. Kilfinnan Castle hadnt won for two years. and according to the racing post comments "out of the weights, others prefered" What does out of the weights mean? I always thought this was a negative thing so put a line straight through him.

    So yeah sorry if this sounds like a bit of a rant, its just it keeps happening, I don’t want to keep coming forth. I’m not asking for a mathmatical genius system or a complicated explanation of weights. Just some pointers into where you think I went wrong.

    Thanks for any help guys,

    Jibby

    Welcome Jibby,

    Jeremy Grayson has brilliantly explained your example race so won’t go in to that.

    Firstly, with so little experience of racing, don’t expect to make a profit for a while (few years at least). To be truthful your early success was probably down to luck. Any punter making an over all profit needs to have a vast knowledge of form and (more importantly) know how to interprate form to find the "V" word.

    It’s a good idea to look around and compare the places you get information until coming to conclusions on what best suits you.

    Things that need to be looked in to include:

    Trainer form

    : Much more important than jockey form. ie Is each trainer’s recent runners been running to form (not neccessarily winning).

    Going

    : Does each horse act on the going? If unproven on it, is it likely to act given the sire (father), dam (mother) and action (how the horses legs hit the ground?

    Distance

    : Is each horse proven at the distance? If not, how likely is it to "stay"? Look again at its breeding and temperament. A lazy horse likely to stay further than breeding suggests; one that wants to get on with it unlikely to stay as far as breeding.

    Temperament

    : As well as for distance purposes, how likely a horse is of being willing to go through with his/her effort is important.

    Pace

    : Look at how many runners like to race prominently. The more prominent runners in a race the more likely it is to be truly run / a stamina test at the trip (provided it is in those prominent runners best interests to make a good pace). Some might want a lesser test and prefer a slowly run race.

    Track

    : Some might have a good record on a particular track. Some might be best on sharp (tight) courses or some need a more galloping track. Some are better on an undulating course. Some need to go right or left-handed.

    Jockeyship

    : How good is each jockey? Has a particular jockey got a very good or poor record on the horse? Beware of taking too much notice of runners ridden by top jockeys; their mounts are often priced up shorter than they should be. Better to identify good conditional jockeys before their ability becomes well known. These often have a better chance than their price suggests.

    Form

    : What rating are the horses capable of given prevailing conditions? And how likely are they of running to that rating given all the above characteristics?

    Improvement and on downgrade

    : Which horse/s are capable of improvement? Some horses might be capable of improving given conditions (eg an increased test of stamina). Some might be showing progressive form. Some might be regressing.

    Best fresh / needing the run

    : Some horses show their best form only after a long time off the track. Some usually need a run (or two) to get to full fitness.

    Look away now lads and lasses, you know what’s coming next! :lol: For the benifit of Jibby…

    Value

    : Once you’ve worked out all of those things, don’t be fooled in to just backing the one you believe has the "best chance" of winning. Only bet if you believe its chance is better than the price available indicates. Don’t have any definite bet sorted out until knowing the prices. Consider backing any horse in the race, whichever is "value". Every horse has a price to back. If a punter wants to make an over all profit it helps enormously to know what each price means in percentage terms. Once a punter understands this, no result is a surprise.

    Hope that helps Jibby.

    Value Is Everything
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