- This topic has 25 replies, 16 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 3 months ago by
.
- Posts
I love handicaps. Big field handicaps is mothers milk.
I would suggest, for a time, watching a race, looking at the result and
then
looking at the form and the Postdata section for that race in the Racing Post. It will help you form your own ideas. Often the Spotlight write-ups appear to have been written by people who have been drinking rather heavily…
Also two biggies – are the trainer
and
jockey in form and do they have winners at the track ?
Often the Spotlight write-ups appear to have been written by people who have been drinking rather heavily…
Like to see you do better Mark.
With the amount of write ups they do, no wonder there’s the occasional howler.
Value Is EverythingI do totally agree with those of you who think the spotlight verdicts are poor. They always seem to go with the 5/4 odds on and then the following race the second favourite who inevitably gets pulled up. I did a little study and found both the racing post spotlights and time form operate at about a 2/6 race success per meet. Of course they have good days but they have shockers too. That said they are human!
Just wondering if Im not betting in handicaps what during the week do i do? i know at weekends we have group, listed etc. but during the week its novices and maidens?
surely their more risky given that there is so little to go on??Go to the British Horseracing Authority and download their guide to handicapping horses. It will give you good overview of that side of the game.
General rules I have found to be useful:
1) NEVER have a bet, a real bet, unless you have read the form for every horse in the race and thought about the chance of each one.
2) Respect form stats: if it’s looking like a horse is no good on soft then he’s probably no good on soft and vice versa, unless he or she is good on all surfaces. There are exceptions to this of course.
3) Never have a decent sized bet in a race worth less than five or six grand to the winner: there will be too many non-triers, rubbish horses, ill horses and horses being trained in public. You will lose more often than you win and it will affect your confidence come the big race days. That’s not to say don’t have an interest in lower grade fare, particularly jumps; but recognise it for what it is and bet accordingly: small doubles, forecasts, speculation-style fun. It was revealing recently when the big bookies said ‘punters don’t care about quality racing, they just want quantity.’
Nothing would please the big boys more if all the racing was Class 6 farces on the all weather, so that should tell you something. Whatever Ladbrokes want more of is usually a bad thing.
Every year my best wins under either code come in Class 3s and above. That is where you find yards that have come to have a serious go for serious money. Owners that want glory not a guaranteed lay on betfair etc4)It’s not about finding winners it’s about finding value. If you back horses at 5/2 that should be 7/2 the bookie will skin you eventually; if you do it the other way round you stay ahead of the game. Of course, you want to be finding 16/1 shots that should be evens favourites, but you take my point. Look for form angles that give you an edge. Sometimes I see races that that to my mind have been priced up completely crazily. A horse that hasn’t had its ground or trip for a while and whose mark has slipped to something reasonable is chalked up at 20/1. Everyone’s lumping on a favourite that is up 8lb and on the wrong ground. The bookie must know I suppose, but they realise that the majority of punters won’t see that angle. That’s when it’s time to step in. It goes 16/1. . . It’s not called the Turf for nothing. . . In other words never let a price put you off and investigate the rags of the race. It is these that will help you to show a profit.
5) Never have a serious bet in an all weather handicap or any other type of all-weather race. It will just eat your profit and confidence. I like an evening on betfair with Wolverhampton/Kempton racing but it’s small stakes equine roulette.
6)When you’ve backed a loser,go straight to the form and figure out your error and examine the winner’s form closely. Betting shop mugs never do this, they just sulk. Mistake.
7)If going racing do your study EARLY and get it straight before the drinking starts.
Remember it is one of the greatest and most ancient games in the world. The Sport of the Kings is a very beautiful thing in itself, and gambling is the spice, or the gravy if you will: when you win, savour; when you lose know that you will win again. Don’t chase losses, there is always another day.9) This is purely personal: don’t bet at southwell: it’s painful to watch.
10) Jockeys can be geniuses but not magicians: if the handicapper’s got the horse’s he’s got the horse’s measure and that, as superpunter Robert DeNiro says at the end of Casino, is that.
Superb post. I particularly agree with sticking to Class 3 and above. Personally I don’t do anything outside of pattern company, excluding handicaps other than at the Festival and Nationals, but do NOT get sucked into the equine lottery that the Professor describes so accurately (fantastic term btw, you hold the copyright on that? Permission to use it with friends?).
I’d also add;
11) NEVER EVER EVER EVER change your mind. Once you’ve made your mind up with a firm selection due to instinct or form or anything else, do not sway from that selection. Occasionally it will pay off – normally it won’t.
The same applies for a horse you don’t rate. If you think a particular horse is crap or a dog, don’t back him, and if you find a race where that horse is running & he ends up being your selection because you think he’s better than the others, don’t back him and leave the race well alone.
Whether you’re
betting greyhounds
or the much
bigger horses
keep a very
strict record
of your petsI expect most of this has already been said, but these are just a few things that I think are important.
Just practice. The more time you put into form research, the better your analytical skill set is going to become. When I became serious about studying the form, every day I would look go through a racecard looking at every horse in each race. Be thorough in your selection methods, whatever they may be, and never make a bet unless you have put your usual amount of work into studying the race.
Keeping a spreadsheet of your bets is also a good idea. This is good for tracking your profits and ensuring you don’t get deluded by occasional good days if you’re actually dribbling away your bankroll. Also, keep track of your thought processes. As well as documenting your selections, be sure to record your reasoning which led you to pick them.
Afterwards, it is beneficial to review a race just as closely as you studied it beforehand. Ask yourself whether the result has given you any new information about a particular horse – what conditions you now know it can handle etc. Also be sure to evaluate yourself and give reasons as to why your losing selections did not win.
A few others to make sure you are a responsible and sensible punter:
1. Don’t blame the jockey. You backed the horse. You knew who was riding it. You have plenty of evidence about their capabilities and the likelihood of a riding error, so cannot complain when a ride gets misjudged.
2. Don’t give tips to family/friends. They usually lose! You probably won’t be asked again.
3. Avoid the sentimental bets. Just because a horse has been good to you in the past, don’t give it preferential treatment. By all means keep a list of your ‘horses to watch’, but don’t follow them blindly.
4. Following on from that, don’t hold a grudge if one of your confident selections gets sunk. Check the trainer’s website, Racing Post and any source you can to look for a legitimate excuse. If you find one, there’s always next time.
5. Do not pay much attention to race times. When someone says "the time in this graded race was only three seconds faster than the handicappers later in the afternoon" or something similar, it really isn’t an indicator of the form’s overall value. There isn’t much sense in comparing two races; where one might have seven lunatic front-runners and another may have a steady pace and sprint for home. Any subtle difference in front-end pace is going to affect the time.
6. Keep looking for ways to improve your selection methods. This forum is great because people explain the reasoning behind their picks. You don’t have to agree with them, but consider borrowing some of their logic if they are successful.
7. Manage your bankroll responsibly. Since losing runs are inevitable and can be damaging in a hurry if you make a high volume of selections, I never put more than 2% of my total betting bankroll on a particular horse.
8. Don’t be ashamed to admit a race is too difficult. You don’t have to make a selection in every one. Money saved is like money won!
Superb post. I particularly agree with sticking to Class 3 and above. Personally I don’t do anything outside of pattern company, excluding handicaps other than at the Festival and Nationals, but do NOT get sucked into the equine lottery that the Professor describes so accurately (fantastic term btw, you hold the copyright on that? Permission to use it with friends?).
I’d also add;
11) NEVER EVER EVER EVER change your mind. Once you’ve made your mind up with a firm selection due to instinct or form or anything else, do not sway from that selection. Occasionally it will pay off – normally it won’t.
The same applies for a horse you don’t rate. If you think a particular horse is crap or a dog, don’t back him, and if you find a race where that horse is running & he ends up being your selection because you think he’s better than the others, don’t back him and leave the race well alone.
Equine roulette? Be my guest! Another phrase often crosses my mind when watching all weather racing: GIANT ESCALADO!
Further to avoiding under Class 3s.
A little while ago I tried an experiment with an all-weather card. I thought: ‘I’m a pretty reasonably good punter. My single bets keep me in profit except now and again at the dodgy seasonal switchovers, particularly when three-year-olds return to the Flat. But I’m not frightened of cavalry charge sprints, big field chases in extreme conditions, love cheltenham, found Oiseau de Nuit at a VAST betfair price in the Grand Annual etc anything decent with a dose of form I will have a go at. I usually win or put a horse in the frame for the National etc.’ So I decided to carefully study the form of a few Class 6s on the all weather and make some theoretical bets. Did I win? Did I ****. Two of the winners could never have been backed by the sane man. There is a lesson here.
Remember it is one of the greatest and most ancient games in the world. The Sport of the Kings is a very beautiful thing in itself, and gambling is the spice, or the gravy if you will: when you win, savour; when you lose know that you will win again. Don’t chase losses, there is always another day.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.