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The actuaries I know say Brown just gave companies an excuse to do what they’d been gagging to do for years.
In other words it would have happened anyway.
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Get well soon.
<br>Philip Larkin did this rather well.
<br>AT GRASS
The eye can hardly pick them out<br>From the cold shade they shelter in,<br>Till wind distresses tail and mane;<br>Then one crops grass, and moves about<br>- The other seeming to look on -<br>And stands anonymous again.
<br>Yet fifteen years ago, perhaps<br>Two dozen distances sufficed<br>To fable them: faint afternoons<br>Of Cups and Stakes and Handicaps, <br>Whereby their names were artificed<br>To inlay faded, classic Junes –
<br>Silks at the start: against the sky<br>Numbers and parasols: outside,<br>Squadrons of empty cars, and heat, <br>And littered grass: then the long cry<br>Hanging unhushed till it subside<br>To stop-press columns on the street.
<br>Do memories plague their ears like flies?<br>They shake their heads. Dusk brims the shadows.<br>Summer by summer all stole away,<br>The starting-gates, the crowds and cries -<br>All but the unmolesting meadows.<br>Almanacked, their names live; they
<br>Have slipped their names, and stand at ease, <br>Or gallop for what must be joy,<br>And not a fieldglass sees them home,<br>Or curious stop-watch prophesies:<br>Only the groom, and the groom’s boy,<br>With bridles in the evening come.
I’m looking forward to this.
In the last 10 years I don’t suppose I’ve even had 10 bets in total on 2 year old races.
When I started taking the betting seriously I decided to ignore a whole raft of race types: 2yr olds; bumpers; hunter chases; novice handicaps; 3yr old hcaps; all-weather racing.
Later on I added a class barrier (Class 3 races and above only).
However, I’ve been full-time the last 2 years and have found myself with enough time to incorporate some of those races I’d hitherto ignored. The dabbling in the all-weather over the winter was much more successful than I imagined, so let’s have another go!
I picked up a lot from that thread, and hopefully some of those involved will share their wisdom on here.
Regarding 2 yr old racing I don’t have much to go on.<br>In my head I have fragments of articles I most probably skipped over, or "Mordinisms" that I may or may not have rightly remembered. I’ll be interested in confirming these small prejudices or otherwise.
Things I’m interested in learning:
1) "2 year olds improve around 7lbs for their first run" – I’ve lost count of the times I’ve heard presenters say that. How true is it?
2) "Back the horse with form over the unraced big stable fave". I’m fairly sure this is an old Mordin system, and fits my gambling philosophy. However, does it still hold water?
3) The importance of the draw seems to be given less priority here than in handicaps. Ability will win the day and all that. However, when I have watched the youngsters I’ve always been struck by just how important the draw seems. They don’t have much racecraft and so those, say, stuck wide – even in small fields – seem doomed. I’m interested in whether I can use the approach I use with sprint races to determine pace/draw bias.
4) How effective are speed ratings for 2 yr olds?
5) What I know about breeding could be tattooed on the leg of a centipede and still leave room for sock and shoe. Let’s see what I can pick up here.
I’ll bet to a maximum of 3pts per race using my current racing fund. (3pts = half per cent of fund).
<br>Under starter’s orders…
I think the summary report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is well worth reading, or at least browsing.
Go to
and click on "download the summary for policymakers"
<br>I don’t think the media is very good at explaining what is happening. This is probably because the media is full of pratts with arts degrees who think it’s a badge of honour not being able to count. Instead of actually reading this report they probably got bored on page one and phoned up their favourite rent-a-quote rogue scientist.
Throw in politicians full of agendas and hypocrisy; season with a bunch of sad cynical paranoics seeding the internet with their conspiracy spunk and you have a heady mix of ignorance, misinformation and denial.
The report is probably the best world-wide attempt at objectively measuring the situation. Page 9 gives a very good breakdown as to the likelihood of human contribution to various weather trends. It’s the first time consensus has been reached by the scientists involved as to our contribution, and the first time probabilities have been assigned to the findings.
I’m not saying it’s fact, but then clearly neither are they.
As a tangent the way they ascribe terms such as "very likely" to percentages should be of interest to anyone who gambles.
I used to run training courses on project management and problem solving and often asked a group of trainees to ascribe a percentage chance to certain phrases – such as "likely". The range of answers was always stunning!
(Edited by tooting at 7:52 pm on Mar. 20, 2007)
Idle Talk ran a great race in the Gold Cup – stayed up in the van all the way around, jumped well, showed a lot of spirit, threw it down to Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer two out and stayed on well up the hill.
Of course, he may not be as good with a jockey on his back…<br>
Corm,
I’m sorry I’ve just read the thread again properly and in particular your bets, and realise I was talking at cross purposes. I was talking about exposure, yet you are actually fully exposed.
Serves me right to browse down here half-cut!
It’s given me another idea though, so thanks.<br>
I don’t stray down to the basement workshop very often! Interesting thread Corm.
One question. Why 2%?
For a straight backing or laying system that would seem a sensible liability. Is it enough for a trading system though?
I’ve never purposely tried it myself, so genuinely don’t know. My gut-feel would have put it somewhere between 5 and 10%. (That would get you off MacDonald’s wages quicker – or broke of course).
The only person I’ve ever talked to about it was Nick Hatton who used to post on here, and trades professionally. He used to trade to sums proportionally far in excess of his occasional what we would consider normal backing bets.
I’m due an R&D project (my last one sunk with all hands!).<br>I think I may try something similar but on an aggressive 10% and see what happens. I’ll drop back in when I’ve bust the research kitty!
Dave’s point about good traders being ruthless at closing out bad trades is a point very well made. My hitherto lack of discipline to do that is the main threat to my attempt and may be why a 2% approach is more sensible.
Good luck!<br>
As I’ve always understood it Occam’s Razor is a means of dealing with data in an elegant and straightforward way to avoid getting lost in the woods.
It requires you to have some data in the first place though!
An interesting aside on Occam’s Razor and horse racing was a study someone (Mordin probably) mentioned that analysed US horseplayers and the criteria they were using for their selections.
They had to say what factors they used in order of importance. As quoted, the study found that the first 5 factors on any horseplayer’s list accounted for their profitability and any further factors added no further value. I think some people interviewed were using 20 or more factors. This finding stood regardless of what each individual’s 5 factors were.
I always wanted to look at the raw data involved in that in more detail, to see exactly how factors were defined.
See, I can’t help myself.
I do know I’d rather analyse my own raw data, over the raw data of the form book, and cerainly over statistics produced from other’s raw data – not that I don’t use all three. <br>
Am I the only one who immediately loses my patience with, and respect for, anyone moaning about paying school fees?
I don’t know if it’s vital. I do know I keep a lot. But then I have the time.
I keep two lots of records.
1. I keep handwritten records of every race I’ve looked at with a view to betting in. This is essentially every class 3 race or higher. Each race takes up one page of a notebook. It include all the runners, my notes on their pre-race chances (spotlight style if you like), my tissue, the best morning odds available, my bets and any reasoning for them. I then add a post race analysis of the race overall and any relevant trip notes. So, in the end I compile my own formbook.
2. I also keep a spreadsheet. This lists all bets made and on-going profit or loss. It then collects data for profit and loss against any number of criteria which I decide I want to measure at the start of each season. This has included such as:<br>- Bet type (win single, ew, place, lay etc)<br>- class of race<br>- type of race (novice chase, hcap ch etc)<br>- type of race (competitive, basic, lesser of evils, leg fave etc)<br>- Reason for bet (‘value’, horse to follow, etc)<br>- course/trainers/jockeys (usually tracking specific ones)<br>- whether backed horses were hot/cold<br>- day of the week<br>- going (eg I know I’m pretty hopeless when the going’s heavy!).
And so on.
At the very least it makes me feel methodical and professional. At its best I learn to handicap myself – my strengths and weaknesses are plain to see and so I can work to improve.
That’s the theory anyway!
Have a good time in Boise toad.
The thread was terrific, and actually profitable as well!
I’m toying with the idea of a similar one for 2 year olds on the flat (another area I’ve always shunned in the past). Any takers?!
Quote: from Grasshopper on 9:59 pm on Feb. 26, 2007[br]<br>
<br>I wish you and your profile well. My own profile is barren, because mere words cannot adequately describe the depth of the shine on my shoe, and the sweetness of the song in my heart.
<br>LOL.
On the whole I’m with Cormack. It may be the thin end of the wedge jimminy but then I think jump racing is essentially doomed as cruel – and soon. (And yes this will no doubt be whilst factory farming ever propsers – progress is never logical or fair.)<br>
Add West Tip.
<br>Personally I don’t think the horses ploughing through the mid-winter mud have quite the right prep. Unless of course the mud sticks around until April – god forbid.
That’s 8 consecutive losing weeks on the jumps for me.
The All Weather has been a breeze in comparison!
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I’m not sure I’m going to play in any of these.
2:30 – Down to four, but the draw hardly inspiring for Waterside, Marajaa nor Bomber Command, and Orchard Supreme really looks like he needs the extra furlong round here. Of the four I do like Marajaa best but at a tissue price of 4/1 it’s looking unlikely.
<br>3:05 No reason to desert Areyoutalkingtome – the price is probably fair.<br>
3:40 Put Blue Bajan, Grand passion and Mighty all in at 3s in a tricky race. I’ll sit and ponder.
LOL.
I used to do quite a lot of work in Penkridge. I guess we’re looking at living somewhere in the square drawn by Bridgnorth- Shifnal – Penkridge – Wolverhampton, preferably with a rail link fairly close by.
You may make a Walsall fan of me yet! (I fondly remember when you were promoted along with Fulham a few years ago and Keegan had our players form a guard of honour).
By the way, I passed a stable with gallops outside Sherrifhales the other day – anyone know who the trainer is?<br>
