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So who will Tom Segal put up tomorrow morning? Or more interestingly who would you suggest if you were in his comfy hotseat?
For me the first two into this year’s portfolio will have to be last year’s one-two: Numbersixvalverde 14/1 and Hedgehunter 16/1. Not very imaginative but both are likely to start close to single-figures.
A fluent jumper of the big fences, Hedgehunter is to my eye the best National horse since Red Rum. He will have the assistance of the great Ruby Walsh. It is arguable that it was the tacky nature of the going rather than the weight that beat him last year. Off a mark only 2lb higher if he gets a faster surface he is the one they will all have to beat.
Numbersixvalverde was a good winner last year. His hurdles runs this winter suggest he is in good shape and his trainer can be relied upon to have him spot on for the big day.
Admittedly the race is more competitive in recent years in the sense that all of the runners are in the handicap but this compression nevertheless favours the better horses and I am surprised these two are available at such big odds given their proven credentials.
As an outsider I will be looking to Take The Stand. He has slipped quickly down the ratings after some poor performances this winter. Yet he has never had his favoured fast going. The tight left-handed circuit will be further in his favour and his run in the Betfair Bowl at last year’s meeting represents a level of form about a stone higher than the 144 he will be asked to race off in the National. He can’t jump but 1001/ is a big price!
Dun Doire and Nil Desperandum look the two biggest duds at the front end of the market and if Mr Segal suggests either of these two I will be thinking his punting pots have completely gone. I would guess that 33/1 Homer Wells will be one of his suggestions.
Agree regarding Numbersixvalverde, his trainer is sure to have him ready for this and trained to the minute. Not so sure about Hedgehunter, especially with the doubts over his health at the minute and top-weight makes it difficult for any horse here.
Why do you classify Dun Doire and Nil Desperandum as duds?
Maybe he’ll go with Celtic Son. <br>Weren’t his words in the Weekender after his wincanton win as a novice something like, "anyone can see that this horse is going to take top rank and one day win a major race"
What about this French import of Pipe’s, Little Brick?
Backed @ 100-1 today, hasn’t run for 18 months but only got btn 1L by L’Ami receiving 3lb a couple of years ago.
May run this weekend….
(Edited by PAULCS at 11:07 pm on Feb. 13, 2007)
Unless Pipe’s unearthed some very well hidden talent, I wouldn’t be too quick to back him. He won what looked to be a fairly weak Grade 3 chase last time out, a number of those behind having been (well) beaten since.
I don’t think the weights favour Eurotrek much, given that he’s only 4lb behind Exotic Dancer and Hedgehunter, but the manner of his last three victories has been very impressive. He jumps and stays and could go close.
Iris Royal and Patricksnineteenth are interesting also, further down the weights, but I’m looking towards 100/1 chance Armaturk. Best known as a two miler, two and a half at a push, he’s admirably consistent and will get round barring accidents. One of the better handicappers in training for me and will run his heart out.
Don’t know the answer to that DJ but Armaturk better be if he’s to stand a cat in hell’s chance :biggrin:
Tom Segal has tipped Nil Desperandum. :o
prospero, I dont see Dun Doire being able to keep – he is slow. And ND just doesn’t win races. All of this, of course, can only be offered with the qualifier ‘imo’!
by the way, good to see a familiar name on this forum ;)
According to the Irish firms everyone wants to get on Dun Doire.
The problem is, with any Tony Martin runner it only takes a few firms to cut him a point or two without seeing any money and then the public money comes flying in.
I can’t fancy it at all.
Rather than making some smart-arsed comment, why not put one up against it? And why just pick out one of four suggestions, can you not find something wrong with those as well?
It may seem an unusual selection, but the National is an unusual race and is one where you can take a real punt; to make it a little more interesting as much as anything else.
If it were a race to take seriously from a betting perspective, no-one in their right mind would bet at all.
Have to stick up for letsgoracing, most of the time the National is invariably won by out and out stayers. Armaturk while unlikely is not beyond the realms of possibility, witness 1987 & Maori Venture a classy 2 & 1/2 miler, ridden like a non stayer gradually creeped into the race by Steve Knight, Armaturk has a little bit of class, so if ridden similar "who knows ?". Rough Quest and Minnehoma were doubtful stayers too.<br>For what its worth heres my tip, Our Ben another Trevor Hemmings horse trained by the brilliant Willie Mullins.<br>Of course he has to turn up.
If it were a race to take seriously from a betting perspective, no-one in their right mind would bet at all.
Rough Quest and Minnehoma were doubtful stayers too.
I don’t agree with either of those statements.
<br>As for Maori Venture, all his runs prior to the National in the 86/87 season were over a minimum of 3m and he won the Mandarin over 3m 2f at Newbury.
The reason he had to ‘creep’ into the race was the catalog of mistakes he made on the first circuit.
And anyone who saw Minnehoma win novice chases at Chepstow and the Cheltenham festival would have had no doubts at all about him staying any trip.
AP
According to Paul Jones here, every winner since Gay Trip 37 years ago has won a race over 3m so I wouldn’t be backing Armaturk
Hello,
The theory goes a good two and a half miler that has been upped to 3m, tends to win the National.<br>A thing called a "second wind" my old Dad used to say.
If you can nurse around such a horse for the first circuit [to be fair the field don’t go TOO fast early on], the 2m+ horses’ speed factor comes into play later on.
Maybe a fable, but one I have heard from various sources.
As I have stated before, my selection is LONGSHANKS -stood up twice over GN fences, great cruising speed, goes extremely well fresh, and trainer has won race prior [Mr Frisk]. Will definitely stay and thrown in on 10st 7ib. Just browse his form.<br>One negative, tends not to turn up on occasions !<br>Gets himself injured in training!!
regards,
doyley
Quote: from doyley on 4:35 pm on Feb. 14, 2007[br]Hello,
The theory goes a good two and a half miler that has been upped to 3m, tends to win the National.<br>A thing called a "second wind" my old Dad used to say.
If you can nurse around such a horse for the first circuit [to be fair the field don’t go TOO fast early on], the 2m+ horses’ speed factor comes into play later on.
Maybe a fable, but one I have  heard from various sources.
Well how many 2-milers in the last 40 odd years have been able to do that?
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