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Haven’t a good luck at the race yet FSL but the one that caught my eye glancing at the weights was Cloudy Lane. He’s looked a real sound jumper that looks on a good mark on his hurdling form. Can see him developing into a real good handicapper in the coming seasons so he’d have to have a chance off his current mark.
Preacher Boy does look to be a similarly unexposed stayer so he’ll have to be on the shortlist.
<br>Preacher Boy has been declared for Wincanton, not Haydock. Only five runners at Wincanton might be the reason.
AP
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Thanks for the welcome Stormont and Cormack! Have been reading the board for weeks but thought it was time I added my viewpoint.
Reet hard, I have gone throuh it and not sure if you are right! A tenner on the nose of the top ten of the betting would to me work out the following:
2006 Numbersix… 11/1 – WIN £20<br>2005 Hedgehunter 9 11-1 W P Mullins R Walsh 7/1F Lose £20 <br>2004 Amberleigh House 12 10-10 D McCain G Lee 16/1 Win £70<br>2003 Monty´s Pass 10 10-7 James Joseph Mangan B J Geraghty 16/1 Win £70 <br>2002 Bindaree 8 10-4 N A Twiston-Davies J Culloty 20/1 Was this in the top ten of the betting? Lose £100<br>2001 Red Marauder 11 10-11 N B Mason Richard Guest 33/1 Lose £100<br>2000 Papillon 9 10-12 T M Walsh R Walsh 10/1 Win £10 <br>1999 Bobbyjo 9 10-0 Thomas Carberry P Carberry 10/1 Win £10 <br>1998 Earth Summit 10 10-5 N A Twiston-Davies C Llewellyn 7/1F Lose £20 <br>1997 Lord Gyllene 9 10-0 S A Brookshaw A Dobbin 14/1 Win £50
I reckon you would be £10 down and you would have lost in 4 of the seasons. Unless Bindaree was in the top 10 of the betting…
I was actually surprised how close you would come to breaking even from your backing the top 10 in the market…but still would not advise doing it… :)
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Call it even then!
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Aaftershock
I wasn’t suggesting it as a method, merely illustrating that it is no longer the lottery that many perceive. (Having said that, it did show a profit, if you work out Bindaree’s win correctly).<br>If one can eliminate 3/4 of the field, 9 years out of 10, without even looking at the form, (Incidentally, in Red Marauders year it was an absolute bog, with only a handful of finishers), or turn a profit simply by blindly backing the favourite, it leaves a great deal of scope for the discerning punter to regularly come out on top, even when backing 4 or 5 in the race.
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But the original point I made was that it was not a ‘serious’ punting race to bet big in.
You surely would not recommend punting largely on the National by covering 4 or 5 of the field every year?
Understand totally your point that you can rule out 3/4 the field. So for an educated punter, you can narrow it down to 10 horses (I would say nearer 12-14 horses is more likely). Still if you cover yourself with 5 you are still open to lose cash as half or more of the horses can win?
Would personally say it is not one to bet hard in. But anyone who can make a serious wedge in the National is a good judge in my book.
Rough Quest and Miinnehoma also ran personal bests in the Cheltenham Gold Cup just prior to their Aintree success.
You need a touch of class to win a modern National. Armaturk has the right kind of class but not the stamina. This is a two-miler pure and simple. I hope they don’t run him in the National as he’ll be needing an oxygen cylinder by Becher’s second time around.
At this point I would rather back Armaturk than Far From Trouble though, I think he would get a bit further round the course.  Horses with just six starts over fences do not win Grand Nationals.
(Edited by Kifill at 11:27 pm on Feb. 16, 2007)
of to the national so first antipost bet on this weekend ossmoses hope it rains from now till then
Quote: from class tells on 11:37 pm on Feb. 18, 2007[br]of to the national so first antipost bet on this weekend ossmoses hope it rains from now till then
They’ll still be running next year if it does! Good luck with Ossmoses class tells, I’ve promised myself I am sticking with Eurotrek and Far From Trouble;)
(Edited by FlatSeasonLover at 11:40 pm on Feb. 18, 2007)
Anyone think Nil Desperandum, Simon or Homer Wells could be this years national winner based on there weekend performances.
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