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i dont think armaturk is such a silly idea. in his races he seems to stay on at the end after looking cooked, so he will be there at the end i think barring accidents. <br>but the horse i am really interested in is monkerhostin. he keeps on galloping, he seems to have lost his class this season, but grand national types arnt usually classy!<br>i dont bet on the national until the day, but i like the look of him. he has come down the handicap a fair bit too recently and hasnt had his fast ground for ages.
Eurotrek (unlike a lot of these) is still pretty unexposed, despite his age
I think hes genuinely suited to this race (we know he likes the course and handkles the fences) and the national is tending to favour the classier animals these days. PN has stated that he has GC ability
my best betting race but one i cannot be bothered with until i know the going. Aintree is quite capable oif real extremes of conditions at that time of year
One horse which I will be watching is Southern Vic ; has run well over 3m in the past , albeit some time ago , but may rediscover former abilities in the coming months.
I will also look at Longshanks among others.
LGR, I have posted on a different thread what my two against the field were for the National but I’ll paste it here for your benefit.
Quote: from davidjohnson on 10:08 pm on Feb. 1, 2007[br]Preacher Boy looks like the sort of unexposed stayer that should improve for a stiff test. Trainer thinks he’s better on decent ground too but I remember Galjade saying he was lame after Sandown so if you are reading this Galjade, is there any update on his condition?
<br>Far From Trouble would be the other one that looks of interest. Couple of good staying efforts in the 4miler at Cheltenham last year and looked likely to be involved in the finish of the Irish National till he came down 6 out. Made amends over a trip that looked sharp enough for him in the Galway Plate. He’s not been out since, presumably to protect his mark because if he wasn’t on target for the race he’d be bigger than 22’s on betfair right now.
Quote: from madman marz on 3:06 pm on Feb. 14, 2007[br]Have to stick up for letsgoracing, most of the time  the National is invariably won by out and out stayers. Armaturk while unlikely is not beyond the realms of possibility, witness 1987 & Maori Venture  a classy 2 & 1/2 miler, ridden like a non stayer gradually creeped into the race by Steve Knight, Armaturk has a little bit of class, so if ridden similar "who knows ?". Rough Quest and Minnehoma were doubtful stayers too.<br>For what its worth heres my tip, Our Ben another Trevor Hemmings horse trained by the brilliant Willie Mullins.<br>Of course he has to turn up.<br>
I consdiered Our Ben, but his jumping can be terrible and that really put me off in the end.
Regarding Armaturk, I just can’t see how anyone can him any chance at all. The only chance he has of staying 4m 4f is in a horse box.
He’s only had one race over 3m and came last of 5 beaten 39l. He did win a 4-runner event over 2m 5f in Feb 03 but apart from that his record at 2m 4f+ is 80564P32, and in the last two he was beaten 20l+. That isn’t the profile of a National winner.
Much the same goes for Fota Island whose entry looks similarly futile. I may be wrong, but I doubt it!
Rob
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I am in the Far from trouble camp as well. Though I should have a saver on Eurotrek as he cleaned up last time for me and he goes well fresh.
But lets be honest, the National is not race to be punting big on. You really need the luck in running. Just ask Clan Royal…
Hi aftershock – welcome to the forum.
You are right about Clan Royal, and Liam Cooper would testify to the same effect!
Quote: from aaftershock on 1:41 pm on Feb. 15, 2007[br]I am in the Far from trouble camp as well.  Though I should have a saver on Eurotrek as he cleaned up last time for me and he goes well fresh.
But lets be honest, the National is not race to be punting big on. You really need the luck in running. Just ask Clan Royal… <br>
Welcome to the forum.
I agree, it isn’t a race worth lumping on as you cannot really say any of the runners offer much value you coming to the day.
My father always says "you want 10’s to get round" which in theory is true, which adds to your luck in running comment. I think my biggest bet on the national has been £10 e/w on Monty’s Pass. I have an awful record in the race, so usually its nothing more than a fiver e/w on 2 or three runners.
I’m very much in the Far From Trouble corner, i just hope we get to see him there.
Bewley’s Berry as my ‘reserve’ bet i think
The national used to be a very good race for betting purposes as there were frequently only a small number of runners in the handicap of which an even smaller number were likely to relish the trip or ground or be sound enough jumpers to suggest they might get round.
These days the fact that it is not such a harsh test and involves less risk has led to a much larger quantity of quality horses running. It is likely this year that the entire field may be in the handicap proper and, given good ground, the race is now a very competitive staying chase and is therefore harder to solve (unless of course you simply back an Irish trained horse who ran over hurdles lto that is – then you’ve cracked it).
It is fairly obvious these days to concentrate on the top 5-6 in the market. With much of the chance eliminated due to safety etc, the market will invariably get it right. The housewives will still have their few bob on the 66/1 shots but surely thats about it.<br>Ill prob back Numbersix again, and FFT if he lines up. Im not in to choosing more than 2 horses. I dont see the point. I wouldnt do it in any other race.
Totally agree cormack, the race is much more competitive these days & much easier to jump around.<br>As for the layed out Irish horses the connections snap up all the big prices and leave John Smith & Paddy Murphy to pick up the scraps.
Use to back plenty of winners in the race, even backed two in a row Maori Venture & Ryhme & reason. While Maori brings back good memories it also brings back very painful ones having put him in my lucky 15 aswell with two other big priced winners, I put Pearlyman in as my banker, odds on, absoluetly cruising 2 from home, falls of course cost me a virtual life changing win. Lucky he was the first horse to run so softened the blow a little.<br>Enough of my post mortem.
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The myth that the Grand National isn’t a race for the more serious punter needs ditching, along with the other old wives’ tale that a good 2.5 mile horse is a good proposition.<br>Apart from the enormous gambles that have been landed in recent years on such as Hedgehunter, Bobbyjo, Papillon, etc; nothing more sophisticated than a tenner on each of the first 10 in the betting would have yielded a return in 9 of the last 10 years, and a decent profit overall.<br> It is a high-class  long distance handicap, where with a little thought, the majority of the field can be eliminated, and though a bookies benefit, that is from the housewives’ pound rather than the on-the-ball punters.<br>Anyone that believes otherwise should maybe question the wisdom of betting in the race at all.
Hedgehunter was hardly a gamble that came from knowhere. He’d run so well the previos year, had improved in the interim and he was only shortened up from 10’s to 7’s on the day of the race.
Numbersixvalverde looks like being my fancy this year. As has been previosuly discussed, the race is no longer the gruelling test it once was and with the handicap compression, class is beginning to tell over the last couple of years so 11 stone is no longer a massive burden to overcome. Carrying 11-3 is not an insurmountable task for a CD winner so he’ll carry my money at the moment.
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