Forum Replies Created
- Posts
If you’ll forgive the shameless plug, my book about moving from London to Shropshire has a piece on Ludlow racecourse, as well as much else Salopian!
http://www.amazon.co.uk/One-Dog-His-Gary-Twynam/dp/1291893288/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1418825592&sr=8-1&keywords=gary+twynam
I agree with Ginger (an unlikely phrase I know).
Do you have stats on the "paper" favourite for the lower grade races? It seems to me (with no quantifiable proof) that the market speaks in lower class races much more than it does in better class races.
Which is to say, in better class races the betting public’s involvement is subject to all sorts of variance – hype, patriotism, greed, romance, the story, the ******* Queen for crissakes – so that there is a tendency for favourites to trade too low. Not forgetting they are running in much more competitive races, price per price.
In lower class races money doesn’t speak it swears. Weak markets, no liquidity, cheats and chancers, non triers, blah blah blah.
Just a thought. Keep trucking!
How about a trio of haiku I wrote for a series of something or other a few years ago.
Kelso
I won the placepot
Fourteen pounds and twenty pence
Little fish are sweetKempton
We met Alan Potts
Who gave us a winning tip
We didn’t back it.Aintree
Churchtown Boy, Suny Bay,
Crisp, Clan Royal, What’s Up Boys,
My Grand Nationals…Ginger,
looking at how you bet, you concentrate on betting "value" odds – ie longer than your tissue – on early prices on decent races. And you are good at it. So good you’re considering going full-time.
Full-time would require you to bet in considerably more events to considerably larger stakes. The bookmakers will limit you, or close you down, as soon as you start increasing your stakes, and you’ll be left with betfair prices, an area you said recently you struggled to make a profit. You’ll also have to play in races where the form isn’t as readily analysable, nor the horses so consistent, nor always trying. That’s without coping with the fear of it being your only income, when the losing runs hit.
I wish you well whatever you do. I gambled full-time for 6 years, having started from a similar position to the one you find yourself in now. But I lost the "value" somewhere along the line.
Now, back part-time, snaffling best odds off ultra-competitive bookmakers in high profile races, I truly appreciate how much easier that is than grinding out a living.Mark Coton has probably forgotten more about betting than you or I will ever learn. Your evangelism for "value" and disregard for him and similar people on here over the last few years hasn’t always read well. And I don’t suppose I’m the only one who has drifted away from the forum accordingly. Can’t fault your persistence though…
Since posting this on here, I’ve searched the net as well, and it’s amazing how many different completely credible sounding answers I now have.
Marginal Value – I particularly like your solution, mainly because I actually understand it. Then again, Glen is the resident board genius on these things…
Thanks you two – that’s what I was after.
Relkeel – that’s how I worked it out myself, when I was trying to remember. I rather fear Drone’s pages of equations is more accurate though!
Thanks – very useful.
You’ve always kept too late hours for me gamble!
Rory pre-dates me – not sure if he’s still posting. And apracing, not that you’ll see him down here! And no doubt many others are still around in some guise or other.
By "proper forum", of course, I meant the raison d’etre for the site, to which I presume this little lounge was an annexe that came with the software, and I think it was called something else in those days – I’ve forgotten what.
I also liked to roam the other forums when the racing threads became too repetitive, or when an escorial or Avis squatted over the board – a job gone ginger these days – and found a nice little snug down here where the people were friendly, if the politics not always to my taste!
I am also very fond of the systems forum, a dusty basement full of blokes tinkering and hammering away, seeking alchemy.
"And the rest of the world thinks we are all total nutters, but they can go and talk to their backsides for all I care. Because they are all just fruit-loops who don’t know what it is to believe in something which is hard to see, or keep looking for something which is totally hard to find."
I liked gamble’s comment on the proper forum about how many of us will be posting in another 10 years, and all those lost people…
I’ve just looked and the last time I posted was 17 months ago. I think there’s a repetition to the threads that does for people in the end, (or they take against someone, or they don’t feel welcome, or they have a strop). Or their own lives turn against them. I wonder how many are dead. (RIP Daylight).
So it’s always a treat for those of us reduced to occasional guest viewing to see the likes of Glenn and gamble chewing the fat over Ionesco and the death of value…
I sadly missed the programmes but Martin Kelner in the Guardian quoted a bit about Premiership footballers that bears repeating:
"A bespoke cast of gladiatorial yob-gods, wag-roasting, Croesus kids, who once a week descend from their Parnassian bling-steads to run amok for ninety golden minutes of bravura vanity."
Triffic.
Interesting thread to me this, for somewhat different reasons.
Throughout the time I’ve been a member of this forum I can’t tell you how many drunken nights I’ve thought about starting a thread including the words drugs and Mark Johnston.
Good to see he’s more cavalier in his "forthrightness" than any old forum-surfing fat drunken opinionated bore…
Maybe I’ll be less inclined to hold back in future, and no doubt he’ll take in all good heart… .
That was really good Dave – thanks. (I got 60!)
And am somewhat embarrassed about many omissions!
