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The ONLY bets I strike are ones I consider ‘value’, whether they are my ‘top-rated’ horse or much more lowly rated horses, so without going through my records (I’d love to, but I am supposed to be working!), I couldn’t tell you a split strike-rate.
Overall my strike rate where I back only one horse in a race is between 15 and 20% season after season, and where I back more than one horse the strike-rate is a pretty solid 20%. The odds I get for those strike-rates have meant a healthy profit to modest stakes for the last few years.
The fund is building and the stakes slowly increasing. It wasn’t always thus – only since I became a ‘value punter’. And especially since I stopped looking for the winner, and started acting on price differentials.
When you went each way on Streamstown (wrong thread I know – but that’s criminal!), did you split your usual stake, or double the overall stake, or what?
Hi Esc, why back a horse to win that I think is 5th best?
‘Value’, pure and simple.
I’ve just gone through all my bets for the season, trying to find some successful ones which were way down my pecking order. There aren’t that many bets, but there are a few winners.
A while back at Taunton I had Sir Frosty as a 5th best 10/1, so I backed it at 33/1
back in December at Chepstow I had Arctic Camper 6th best at 8/1, so I backed it at 12/1.
And just before that at Newbury I had Marble Arch 4th best at 9/1, so backed it at 14/1 (SP 8/1).
Obviously there’s quite a few losers, but these big-priced winners certainly help the profits along.<br>
Fascinating Esc.
Yes, on YOUR ratings (we’ll ignore the big outsiders for a moment) I would have backed:
Guns and Roses 15 points<br>Harfdecent 7 points<br>Nosam 9 points
10 points Moor lane<br>Tresor De mai 4 points
Storm damage 6 pints<br>Mister One 5 points
Streamstown 9 points<br>Garruth 5 points (at 16/1)
Strangely enough I did back Nosam (as we know higher up the thread), and Streamstown (10 points – I had 5/1 favourite in my book), and Garruth (3 points). I also backed In the Rough (4 points) even though in your terms I rated it 5th best horse in race.
Your ratings don’t seem to conclusively transfer into odds though – unless you’re really saying you thought It’s Himself, Frenchman’s Creek and Ryalux were 40/1 and 66/1 shots? Safe to say I’d have been backing them at your odds
Hell I may even have put some on each way.
Could go either way. Seems like a horse waiting on a vote of confidence.
If the big Irish punters steam in at some stage, he’ll be back to 6/4 or shorter in no time. If JP stays away I think we could see 3/1 or longer before Cheltenham, and who knows, on the day he could drift much further (remember Jodami’s Gold Cup). A collective vote of no confidence on the part of the betting public, or collective amnesia?
I’ll sit on the fence for now, but 7/2 on the day…
Razeen, that’s a good point you make higher up this thread, about whether ladbrokes are factoring your statistic into their prices.
It also applies to guessing whether the betting public are taking any one statistic into account. We do collectively tend to over-exaggerate the effect of certain factors in certain circumstances.
If there’s four or five items in the racing press suggesting (for example) 5 year olds can’t win the Stayers Hurdle, not only may ladbrokes factor that in as a negative in their pricing of a decent 5 year old, but the horse may drift even further because everyone’s cottoned onto this statistic, and then probably drift further still once on the slide as the rest of the public think there must be something wrong with the horse.
At some point the 5 year old is going to become seriously good value, regardless of the statistic.
I use quite a lot statistics in forming my books (trainer form in particular). But I’m always on the look-out for the sort of statistic that is going to become a monster and affect the book out of all proportion to its real meaning. <br>
The prices probably are all wrong if one horse is wrong –
However, you do have the bookies own odds as a sanity check to iron out the worst wrinkes, and you als have the bookies over-round as a margin of error. (daylight prices to 90%, so he has the over-round and some – if he still finds ‘value’ he must be onto something)
Price Regent – yes think yu may be onto something there. I certainly wish I could bet on more races. I even wonder soemtimes if I should just turn the game into ‘beating SP’. My problems are that I seem to be able to do well only in good class racing (mainly all aged handicaps and graded races), and certainly only where there are early prices.
Not if you think of it in terms of odds Esc.
If I put a horse in as (say) 4/1 favourite, it far from means I think it will win – I’m actually 80% sure it will lose!
Looking at it that way, I’ve stopped trying to reduce the race to one horse, which I find opens up lots more opportunities.
As you say, plenty of different ways…
Brilliant posting Nore – great explanation, and I’m not too different from you in my approach. (non handicaps are harder that’s for sure).
<br>Hi Esc,<br>the main difference between your approach and mine isn’t that I’m willing to bet against my choice on value grounds. The difference seems to be that I don’t (or very rarely) have a horse I think will win in the first place. I just have a market, which I compare to the bookies’ markets and see what stands out as bets from that.
It’s also now apparent to me that this is actually different from most value punters, (eg Daylight) who come up with a selection first and then look for value.
I think that’s pretty constraining.<br>
Strange that – he sits by me at the Stevenage Road at Fulham.
He’s bloody useless on the horses though…
Great stuff.
Of course you’re still only a value punter on your ‘favourite’ Esc. Once we get you backing your 5th choice on the grounds of ‘value’, then we get you for keeps!!
Esc, looking at the strength of your ratings, I could imagine having priced it up at something like 4/1 (with 8 runners). So, yep a ‘value’ bet for you.
Having said which, the notion of a Pipe/McCoy horse ever being value is one that takes some believing.
I couldn’t ever have countenanced backing it each way Luke – but good on yer.
<br>
Robgomm, hi.
No, I don’t think I’d lay Samakaan – not at 8/1 anyway!
I have been experimenting on making a book on betfair over the last few weeks. But the races I look for are ones where I have a couple of relatively short-priced ‘discards’. Say, I’d discarded Ryalux – I’d lay him to be a fairly big loser, and also lay the horses that seem grossly under-priced (Samakaan, possibly Dream of Nurmi) so that I break even if either of those win, lose pretty badly on Ryalux, but win well on other 7 runners.
To be honest that’s a bit of a steep learning curve for me, but I am in profit on it so far. However, the margins on betfair are damned tight for layers. I don’t think I’d get anywhere near a fair book just attempting to oppose Samakaan.
Esc, I guess you mean the Great Yorkshire Chase ? Happy to do that for you Saturday morning.
I’ve also done today’s 2:30 Doncaster – only race I’ve looked at today (unless I lay Arctic Owl on betfair). Happy to share that with you as it coincidentally is a fairly neat example of my scribblings above.
10 runners. 3 ‘discards’ – the three outsiders. That makes 7 short-listed at a point each, and three discards at a third of a point each = 8 points, converted to percentages, means roughly 85% of book on short-listed and 15% on discards.
The best prices available on discards come to something like 15%. I’ll happily go to something like 12%.
<br>Prices on rest of runners – mine first and best available on oddschecker.com in brackets.
Ryalux 5/1 (4/1)<br>Samakan 7/1 (4/1)<br>Dream of Nurmi 7/1 (5/1)<br>Gun N Roses 8/1 (7/1)<br>Harfdecent 8/1 (8/1)<br>Merry Path 8/1 (8/1)<br>Nosam 7/1 (10/1)
It looks a pretty open race to me – I prefer races where I’ve discarded some of the short-priced horses. I initially went 8/1 both Samakaan and Dream of Nurmi, and only 6/1 Nosam, but have adjusted slightly as I am a bit cautious of going on a long losing run having had a really good week last week. (Pride comes before a fall etc).
It still means a win bet on Nosam at 10/1. (5 points) I can’t say that excites me, nor do I much think he’ll win, but that’s what my book tells me I should do.
I could also keep an eye on Harfdecent and Merry Path in case they drift to 12/1 or better, in which case I could put a couple of points on them. I probably won’t bother. <br> <br>Which should have encouraged most members to go and put their conkers on Samakaan!!<br>
Hi Esc, in answer to your question
I divide runners into possibles and discards. And allocate percentage of book to each type.
My decisions re size of book I give to the discards depends on <br>1. Shape of race/price of short-list discards. (Discards can sometimes be very short-priced – eg Bindaree on Saturday)<br>2. Prices bookies give to discards (as a modifier)<br>3. My feeling about the day’s racing (good or bad for me), and my current feel good factor.
A (ridiculous) rule of thumb I use to good effect is to give each short-listed horse 1 point and each discard a third of a point, total and make a percentage. So, 9 runners 6 short-listed and 3 discards makes 7 points – makes roughly 14% a point, equals roughly 85% to the short-listed and 15% to the discards.
I’d modify this dependent on available prices for the discards. And then for how tight or loose I wanted my book to be, based on whether it was the sort of race I do well in, or whether I’m on a cautious losing streak etc.
I then price up the short-listed horses only, and look to see if I can find some value to bet on. In the above example I’d back any of the short-listed horses if I think I’d found ‘value’ but never one of the discards.
hope that makes sense.
Daylight, a sterling defence – I agree wholeheartedly.
Except of course you can still find ‘value’ in each way betting – as Escorial plainly did in his one example. (And taking this thread and the other one on value it is obvious Escorial that youare a vlaue investor in denial!)<br>It’s just harder to find, and probably even harder to evaluate what represents value.
Pixo – I too have just gone through my records for last 4 seasons (flat and jumps).
I used to bet a lot each way, until I saw the error or my ways and moved towards taking a couple of nice-priced horses against the field in races where I was formerly going each way on one long-shot. I also usually add a small exacta as a get rich quick bet.
Here are my returns
Each Way 57 bets 11 places (19%) Returns 91%<br>Single win 366 bets 52 wins (13%) returns 117%<br>Split bet plus forecast 214 bets 43 wins (20%) returns 126%.
If I look at the each way bets and say I put the entire stake onto win, my record would be a rather miserable<br>bets 57 wins 1 (0.2%) Returns 60%.
No wonder I moved from each way to backing a couple.
Nev, interested in your posting.
I’m with you in finding it fairly difficult to distinguish between a 10/11 shot and an 11/10 one, and also have shied away from short odds betting for many years. My two reasons would be betting tax and contrariness. With the tax gone, I’m only left with my dogmatic cynicism for favourites.
I’ve been trying to soften the cynicism into scepticism.
On a ‘value’ front, and using the mathematical conundrum that is the Kelly Criterion, finding a bet you believe should be 10/11 that is 11/10 you should actually stake 9 points.
To put this in context that is broadly the same as you should be putting on a 7/1 chance you think should be 4/1, or a 12/1 chance you think should be 5/1.
Like you, I’m still more excited by the latter than the former (greed probably), but it’s food for thought for me at least.
