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I didn’t see anything wrong with the thread personally, and don’t like threads being pulled. (On which point Corm is way more relaxed than Daylight was).
"I’m offended" is such a limp-wristed, tight-arsed, small-brained response to life .
The notion that lolly isn’t a racist bigot though is as fanciful as it is tautologous. In fact many would say it’s his best feature…
Wild boy Fallon had a chance like I did to get away from all that crap. Everyone has a choice. He became more successful than most people could ever hope to be but he never forgot his roots. No… he took them with him right to the top then dragged the name of racing which was so kind to him straight back into the hell hole he came from.
In amongst a rather fun rant, that’s a really good paragraph. Unlike the usual cast-list of sporting stars who have been brought down by their dark side (Bestie, Gazza et al) it’s not just his own talent he’s been busy flushing down the toilet.
maggsy.
There’s a tab in the bottom left hand corner – title "wbx insight". Behind there are lots of tipsters/journalists providing their thruppence worth. Access is for people who have a certain number of bets, but I think if you sign-up you get a few weeks for free as it were. Alan Potts puts up two backs/lays most days.
I can’t speak for Alan Potts but I do know his betting changes as he perceives the market/his edge to be changing.
(Which seems obvious but brings us back to the learning points as I see it: (a) Am I deluded? and (b) assuming we’re not, how do we tell the difference between losing run/winning runs/changing betting conditions and randomness, and to what degree.)
His second book made it quite clear that at that stage in his betting life he felt his old strategies were failing and he set about looking for new ones. If you go to http://www.wbx.com and look at his daily ‘recommendations’ I think you’ll find it quite an interesting insight as to how he perceives today’s market in comparison to when he wrote his books.
This thread should probably take the elevator to the main horse racing forum, as it has pertinence beyond the usual ‘men tinkering in their sheds’ associated with this area. It’s a shame a few people persist on using it to wave their betting willies around. We’re trying to learn to be better here. Not compete.
I’m only halfway through the book, so won’t add much.
However, I don’t think the key is in attempting to deal with ‘randomness’ within each race. I think it more likely that it is in one’s staking strategy/fund management.
From what I’ve read so far, the main impression is that the financial traders the book is focusing on had poor or non existent risk management strategies. If there’s a gambling analogy to be drawn it would probably be to those who do their gonads on betfair on 1:01 shots, or dare I say it, to the currently highflying but risk-insane Harry Findlay.
How about a small laminate card with useful numbers on it.
Examples:
Rule 4 deductions on one side
Field Book percentages on the other (or) a table showing fractional prices as decimals – especially at the short end of the market.If it came in a nice small wallet all the better ("to keep your betting money separate at the races").
Although, also in Hamlet – one of my favourites:
"When sorrows come they come not single spies,
But in battalions."Thanks guys, food for thought. The book’s on order.
reet hard – your comment is of course a fundamental truth about gambling.
My posting was made more in the context of the thread, and was me considering the effect of randomness on one’s perception of whether one is betting badly or well at any given time.I’m successful enough over the last ten years to ride out even a season as bad that one was. But my biggest weakness is how I cope with losing streaks – both emotionally and how it affects my on-going betting. I usually do indeed blame myself for my own weaknesses.
If I take Artemis’s answer heuristically I put randomness on-side as a useful rationalisation. If I take your answer instead (which is closer to my current standpoint) I could be overly punishing myself needlessly.
Dave – good stuff as always. I actually measure pretty much everything – probably too much. Sometimes I know the measurements uncover real gems, and sadly sometimes I know I look for things that aren’t there.
quadrilla – I’m open-minded to most things and always looking to improve my gambling. But I came to the conclusion that unravelling VDW was a complete waste of time many years ago, and I can’t say I’ve missed out. Of course, you’ll no doubt see that as the cause for my recent malaise. But then confirmation analysis is always the refuge of the evangelic.
(Excellent thread lads).
The recent flat season was a disaster for me. As a full-time gambler I have to work out the reason(s) for this. I listed possible causes as follows – (feel free to add!).
a) I bet badly (compared to my ‘normal’ level)
b) the betting market changed in various ways rendering old practices no longer profitable
c) the races were just more ‘random’ than normal
d) the races were made more ‘random’ by structural changes (such as narrowing handicap bands), or by procedural changes (such as over-watering).
e) it was just a run of bad luck.I came to the conclusion it was about 40% (a), about 40% (b) and about 20% (e).
I haven’t read this book, but from what you’ve said here, he’s asserting that (e) had a much larger role in my problems than I’d think?
This poses a practical question.
A successful gambler needs to keep moving forward – refining his methodology, and keeping abreast of changing circumstances. As someone else said "to be long-term successful a punter has to keep swimming against the tide. It takes an effort to stay still, an even greater effort to move ahead, and as soon as you relax or slack off you start to go backwards".That being so, in such a scenario where you are suffering a seemingly significant losing streak, how do you go about working out if you need to change your methodology, or whether you just need to keep plugging away and hope your luck’s going to change! Can we quantify it in some way?
Plus how can I ascertain now if the changes I put in place at the end of the season, and which are currently working, is effective problem solving or randomness moving my way!
Good posting from Drone there, methinks.
Re allotments – when we took on an overgrown plot we received a full rebate on the first year’s rent, as long as we could prove we had worked the plot. (That said, I’d advise you take on a recently tended plot – preferably a lovingly tended one for decades by someone probably recently deceased, leaving you a shed, small pond, numerous fruit bushes, chip-bark walkways, compost bins, and four beautiful, weed-free, manured veg plots!).
I dread having to go back to do anything resembling ‘proper work’ but will admit that working from home can be astonishingly lonely.
Pru, I’d be very careful if I was you.
There’s so many inconsistencies in the book I fear there’s every chance you may spontaneously combust.
Well, here’s how I do it!
1. Collect apples – I aim for something like 70% eating apples, 20% cookers and 10% crab apples, but I don’t suppose that’s right. (The orchard has all sorts of eaters but as far as I know none of them are proper cider-making varieties). Include some bruised and overripe ones.
2. Chop them up. I have a strange bucket with cutting arrangement powered by a drill that pulps them.
3. Press them. I have a small press – cost about £50 from a home brew place. (Not sure that’s value really thinking about how little cider I make, but then I do it for fun and personal wellbeing, not as a money-saving measure).
4. Put juice accrued into a fermentation bin and cover. There should be loads of brown scum/pulp on top. Leave for two days to bubble up merrily.
5. Skim off the gunk from the top and decant into flaggons. Leave outside for the winter (or in shed).
I have experimented with adding yeast, leaving in the warm for a bit, and just leaving nature take its course and the latter definitely works best.6. In spring decant/strain (as you would with wine) to clear up a bit, though cloudiness is of course part of the charm.
7. Drink.
8. Enjoy.
9. Fall over.
Thanks for the recipe – kingston town – I’ll try it next year.
For the last few years I’ve made my own cider – my in-laws have a small orchard. It’s pretty good actually, which always surprises me as all I do is put the juice in flaggons and leave outside till Spring.
I’ve also made apple wine. Sadly, I can never get anyone to have a second glass…
graysons – just read the wikipedia entry and it all seems clearer now.
Looks like I was a year out on the gig, and a bit previous on when the slimmed-down band appeared. Right about the dust-bin lids though!
