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Juvenile Daily Lays and Plays

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  • #2615
    slipperytoad
    Member
    • Total Posts 419

    As the start of the flat season approaches and following on from the success of the All Weather thread, Tooting and I have teamed again to attack the 2yo division as a “skunk worksâ€ÂÂ

    #70953
    slipperytoad
    Member
    • Total Posts 419

    Lets get things rolling with the first 2yo race of the season.  :biggrin: <br>In preparation for the better races, I’m experimenting with some personal ratings which include, trainer record, breeding etc so buyer beware!

    Lingfield 2:50 5f – lingfield park for weddings maiden auction stakes (class 5)

    3/1 Dubai Princess, 9/2 Concertmaster, 5/1 Swindon Town Flyer, 7/1 Hucking Harmony, 10/1 Southwest Star

    There hasn’t been a wining favourite in this race for a number of years so IF I have a bet I’ll be looking to oppose the jolly using the tissue above. Based on the RP tissue it looks like my two against the jolly are Concertmaster or Hucking Harmony as the trainers of these horses like to get them ready FTO.

    (Edited by slipperytoad at 10:56 pm on Mar. 28, 2007)

    #70954
    tooting
    Member
    • Total Posts 379

    I’m looking forward to this.

    In the last 10 years I don’t suppose I’ve even had 10 bets in total on 2 year old races.

    When I started taking the betting seriously I decided to ignore a whole raft of race types: 2yr olds; bumpers; hunter chases; novice handicaps; 3yr old hcaps; all-weather racing.

    Later on I added a class barrier (Class 3 races and above only).

    However, I’ve been full-time the last 2 years and have found myself with enough time to incorporate some of those races I’d hitherto ignored. The dabbling in the  all-weather over the winter was much more successful than I imagined, so let’s have another go!

    I picked up a lot from that thread, and hopefully some of those involved will share their wisdom on here.

    Regarding 2 yr old racing I don’t have much to go on.<br>In my head I have fragments of articles I most probably skipped over, or "Mordinisms" that I may or may not have rightly remembered. I’ll be interested in confirming these small prejudices or otherwise.

    Things I’m interested in learning:

    1)  "2 year olds improve around 7lbs for their first run" – I’ve lost count of the times I’ve heard presenters say that. How true is it?

    2) "Back the horse with form over the unraced big stable fave".  I’m fairly sure this is an old Mordin system, and fits my gambling philosophy. However, does it still hold water?

    3) The importance of the draw seems to be given less priority here than in handicaps. Ability will win the day and all that. However, when I have watched the youngsters I’ve always been struck by just how important the draw seems. They don’t have much racecraft and so those, say, stuck wide – even in small fields – seem doomed.  I’m interested in whether I can use the approach I use with sprint races to determine pace/draw bias.

    4) How effective are speed ratings for 2 yr olds?

    5) What I know about breeding could be tattooed on the leg of a centipede and still leave room for sock and shoe.  Let’s see what I can pick up here.

    I’ll bet to a maximum of 3pts per race using my current racing fund. (3pts = half per cent of fund).

    <br>Under starter’s orders…

       

    #70955
    slipperytoad
    Member
    • Total Posts 419

    Good post as always tooting. :biggrin:

    Given that 2yo races are truly run, the focus of my analysis will be to investigate the usefulness of speed ratings (once the form settles down) to determine the relative quality of the form (slowly run 2yo races verses truly run races).

    The other area of investigation is to see if breeding i.e. Dosage figures can give me an additional angle as part of my analysis of 2yo races. For example, as the race above has no form to analyse, my starting point was judge the relative merits of each horse using dosage as a starting point, then apply trainer and jockey ability in 2yo races as secondary factors.

    Finally, I read an article regarding backing top weights on 2yo nursery races, is the myth true? We’ll find out later this year. ;) <br>

    #70956
    Sailing Shoes
    Member
    • Total Posts 368

    Top Weights in Nursery Handicaps do have a very good record – I’m sure someone with Racing Systems Builder will be along to back me up.

    Toots,

    I wouldn’t go along with 2-y-o’s improve 7lbs from there first run, although as a general rule improvement can be expected.

    Some 2-y-o’s never find their racing hoofs at 2 at all – and only improve with physicality and not ability. This can be an important point – as horses that appear to have lots of ability, but no physical scope soon get left behind – the importance of physical presence as the season progresses can not be stressed too highly IMO.

    When 2-y-o races, I look at trainer record last – and prefer to go in on a breeding angle. Ignore the DAM at your peril – (Read Tom Tate’s Q&A for more info).

    The Dams record as a racehorse is unquestionably the single most important aspect of finding 2-y-o unraced maiden winners. If you then join this to the Sire’s history (ability to sire multiple 2-y-o winners, grade etc…) you can have the making of a decent bet.

    Of course the trainers ability to ready a horse F-T-O as a 2-y-o needs to be researched, but as long as they have shown an ability to do so – thats usually enough for me and mostly to much emphasis is placed on the trainers 2-y-o record.

    Some good bets can be had if you get on early about a trainer with a modest record that appears to have a half decently bred 2-y-o.

    This may sound like a ramble – as I’m trying to work and post at the same time..

    #70957
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Drat wish I’d seen this thread this morning; I could of put a winning post up and quit while I was ahead!:biggrin:

    I’ll contribute to this thread regularly and put up my (novice) ratings, but what happened on course at Lingfield? I took 7/4 this morning about Dubai Princess and was right chuffed and then found it had won at 4/1:o . Did it look bad in the paddock? Would what you saw in the paddock put you off a 2yo horse?

    #70958
    slipperytoad
    Member
    • Total Posts 419

    FSL, listened to the race via internet radio. The comments indicated the market felt that others in the race where fancied and Dubai Princess was not, hence the drift.

    "Would what you saw in the paddock put you off a 2yo horse?"<br>Like others, I punt "blind" away from the course and obviously I cant see paddock pictures. However, when I have visited the paddock, they all have fours legs, a head, tail and mostly brown, some black a few are grey, so any help on this aspect is welcome.. :biggrin:

    (Edited by slipperytoad at 4:31 pm on Mar. 29, 2007)

    #70959
    tooting
    Member
    • Total Posts 379

    Good stuff folks, keep it coming.

    #70960
    Sailing Shoes
    Member
    • Total Posts 368

    Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 4:16 pm on Mar. 29, 2007[br] Would what you saw in the paddock put you off a 2yo horse?<br>

    Undoubtably, yes.

    As Slippery points out, more likely support for others in the race, the reason for the drift.

    slippery,

    If you do go racing, I implore you to visit the paddock at every opportunity. Even novices, can pick up some things. Note down what you think – however simplistic it might seem. Try to look for differences in the horses. Take the least class race and the best class race and notice the difference between the horses in each field. You will be surprised I assure you.

    As to what precisely to look for….. Thats a tad more difficult to be specific. It just comes with experience. Sadly to my knowledge there are not many books out there in the racing sense that pick up what to look for. I’m sure there are some more general equine study books that would be of great interest in horse conformation etc…

    #70961
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Winner was very impressive. Time looks pretty good as well. She is obviously one to take out of the race. Lily Agnes anyone! Also I’ll be interested in John Best’s Hucking Harmony next time. I like these juveniles that show early speed and she looked to have it in abundance. She’d probably have finished a comfortable second but for the ground she gave away when hanging on the final bend. I think she’ll win next time.

    (Edited by davidjohnson at 7:41 pm on Mar. 29, 2007)

    #70962
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    I was wondering if you used a system to develop ratings for juveniles that are unraced? (I know what you do DJ). Its just I have a template I use (well it will give you a laugh at least) based on the breeding and trainer and jockey. I haven’t seen anyone else who does that though so is it just me?

    There are no 2yo races tomorrow are there?:(  

    #70963
    slipperytoad
    Member
    • Total Posts 419

    As a starting point for the R&D project I’m trying to develop a set of “guidelinesâ€ÂÂ

    #70964
    slipperytoad
    Member
    • Total Posts 419

    Newcastle 2:10 5f – williamhillpoker.com brocklesby conditions stakes (class 4)

    Like most I had to base my selections on breeding and trainer form for this R&D project

    3/1 Hamish McGonagall, 4/1 Silver Wind, Goldhill Fair, 5/1 Not My Choice

    Racing Ahead Magazine produced some stats this month for 2yo races up to the end of April which highlighted trainers that like to "get em ready". During this period last year W G M Turner produced 4 winners and 7 places so Goldhill Fair would be a "virtual" selection until the form settles. Yes he’s ridden by a 7lbs claimer but racing is full of opposite logics so instead of "why" I’ve taken the view "why not?

    Silver Wind who seems well bred for sprint events will also form my "virtual" two against the field. Any money for Hamish McGonagall (who has ticks in all my boxes) would be interesting but I suspect that I have made a "rick" and the "informed majority" has correctly assessed his chances (currently 26/1 on Befair).

    #70965
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Easterby’s record with juveniles is not what it was. Only Kerry’s Dream made a successful debut for him last year from a typical batallion of runners.

    #70967
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Can’t really see anything of value but Betfairs price of around 7/1 on Mister Hardy is the bet I would have if persuaded.

    Hopefully there will be easier opportunities than this :)

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