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6:05 Catterick
Limestone – 45.7 > 88.4<br>Myriola – 85.7<br>Tan Bonita – 84.2<br>Upstanding – 62.5 > 77.1 > 67.6
For me, this is not much (if any) better than a claimer, and it will probably not take much winning.
Limestone ran alright in a modest race last time, but that represented a huge jump forward on his debut effort and he did so under a big weight. Although he doesn’t look like much, he might just be a big player here.
Myriola ran ok on her debut, fading late on having shown speed; however, that came in a race which is working out magnificently badly so far, with the four horses to turn out again all beaten further on their subsequent efforts. She may be capable of better, but needs to be even in this race.
Tan Bonita also put in a fair effort in weak-looking, slowly-run Windsor maiden. She became outpaced and then ran on again there, suggesting she might be better over a bit further, but this race is probably similarly tame enough for her to get away with it and get fully involved at the business end.
Of the remainder, Upstanding has had three chances and doesn’t look capable of winning anything at the moment. I would have expected to see more early money for Speedy Senorita if she was any good, whilst Destinys Dream would seem unlikely to be much of a 2yo on breeding.
This leaves two who both make a little appeal for smaller but sometimes capable stables, in Amazing Spirit and Style Award. Neither screams out as being immensely speedily-bred, but a good run at a biggish price wouldn’t be a big surprise.
Recommendation<br>LIMESTONE – £3 each-way<br>LIMESTONE + TAN BONITA – 2 x £1 reversed exactas<br>LIMESTONE + AMAZING SPIRIT – 2 x 50p reversed exactas<br>LIMESTONE + STYLE AWARD – 2 x 50p reversed exactas
<br>Footnote (just for information)<br>Adjusted for today’s weights, the top ratings for each horse would be:
Limestone – 91.9<br>Myriola – 91.3<br>Tan Bonita – 86.9<br>Upstanding – 83.5
<br>
(Edited by non vintage at 5:49 pm on May 8, 2007)
Chester 1.50 – Joseph Heler Cheese 50th Anniversary Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes
Cracking contest in terms of this project as all the form is relatively exposed at a draw biased course so a smattering of handicapping is required to differential the runners.
As I mentioned at the beginning of this project I want to determine if speed ratings can provide an additional factor/edge, they are as follows (in descending order of preference)
1. Vhujon 2. Fast Feet 3. Artdeal 4. Not My Choice 5. Sinead Of Aglish 5. Cracking
throwing into the mix other ratings, draw and pace bias the tissue is as follows
7/2 Vhujon, 4/1 Cracking, Not My Choice, 9/2 Fast Feet
Trailblazers Baytown Flyer and Art Deal will toe them along but I feel this race will be won by a horse “other than early". Expect Vhujon and Cracking to be there or there about due to their pace profiles and post position.
As mentioned previously the market will provide an accurate guide. However comparing Ladbrokes early prices, Vhujon (who is reportedly regarded as Royal Ascot material based on one run) is likely to be a short price and possibly one to take on with Cracking (positive jockey switch) and Fast Feet (positive ratings) depending on prices just before the off.
(Edited by slipperytoad at 11:37 pm on May 8, 2007)
Vhujon is now a notable absentee, and the market has made Cracking and Fast Feet “co-co choicesâ€ÂÂ
Disappointing that Vhujon isn’t running, as I rated his debut effort very highly, and would have expected him to go ‘very well’. :( Anyway…
Today’s ratings are brought to you in multi-vision, with the weight adjusted ratings given as well as the raw ratings.
In essence, I am going to look at both and try to determine whether it is better to ignore the weight being carried in a particular event or adjust the ratings accordingly.
The weight adjusted rating is calculated by taking the highest rated performance from the last three runs and then taking into account the weight and distance of the forthcoming event.
1:50 Chester
SINEAD OF AGLISH @ 8st 7lbs = 102.3<br>FAST FEET @ 8st 12lbs = 100.9<br>CRACKING @ 9st 1lbs = 99.9<br>ARTDEAL @ 8st 12lbs = 96.4<br>BAYTOWN BREEZE @ 8st 7lbs = 92.6<br>PRIMO HEIGHTS @ 8st 10lbs = 91.3<br>NOT MY CHOICE @ 8st 12lbs = 80.8
Cracking – 78.0 > 100.7<br>Fast Feet – 86.4 > 99.3<br>Sinead Of Aglish – 96.8 > 88.0 > 96.0<br>Artdeal – 92.4 > 94.9<br>Primo Heights – 88.5<br>Baytown Breeze – 81.9 > 84.0 > 87.6<br>Not My Choice – 79.6
Cracking improved plenty for his debut effort and put in a fast time when winning at Brighton, but he clearly got the run of the race there against horses who just weren’t fast enough in the early stages to keep up with him. He seems straight-forward and well-balanced which will be an advantage here, but is very unlikely to get an easy time of it up front today.
Fast Feet also improved from his debut, and may have run into a useful horse last week at Musselburgh. He seems to need a bit of driving, and not being right up with the pace from the go might be a benefit here. He looks to have a good chance, but the fact remains that he has only faced 11 rivals so far and been beaten by three of them – it’s possible that small fields might not be ideal for him.
Sinead Of Aglish has put in three solid performances without managing to win, and was possibly a little disappointing at the weekend. She is a clear top-rated on the weight adjusted figures, and again, the fact that she isn’t just a point-and-go merchant could be advantageous. At around 12/1, she is hard to ignore.
Artdeal won last time, but was probably entitled to and didn’t have to be amazingly pacey in order to make all in a moderate contest. He has a bit of improvement to find, but could benefit from being settled by Spencer from a wider draw and then coming late down the centre of the track. At a backable price, he is quite interesting.
Looking at the others, they have quite a lot to find to be competitive here based on the ratings. Not My Choice ran alright in a weakish looking Brocklesby (winner aside), but has been off since and looks a pretty short price to bridge a considerable speed gap. Primo Heights won nicely enough but that heat looks very weak and her lack of early speed could be fatal here, whilst Baytown Blaze seems to be becoming increasingly proficient but thus far has looked nowhere near fast enough for this contest.
Recommendation<br>With no obvious direct value around likely favourites Cracking and Fast Feet, and a longer shot topping the adjusted ratings, I’ll go with:
SINEAD OF AGLISH : £4 win
SINEAD OF AGLISH + Cracking : 2 x £1.20 Exactas (rev.)<br>SINEAD OF AGLISH + Fast Feet : 2 x £1.20 Exactas (rev.)<br>SINEAD OF AGLISH + Artdeal : 2 x £0.60 Exactas (rev.)
SINEAD OF AGLISH to be 1st or 2nd with the any of the above three : 12 x 20p Trifectas
Just browsed the thread – good work as always fellas.
Looks like there’s enough form on show in the Chester race for me to get involved for the first time! That said, my move has meant me not seeing many races, and my lack of satellite continues to be a hindrance.
I’ve also just scurried back to the form books to see why I discarded Sinead of Aglish, having read NV’s wise words!
Still, here’s my first 2yo tissue of the season:
Cracking 5/2<br>Fast Feet 7/2<br>Artdeal 6/1<br>Primo Heights 6/1
Now that Vhujon is out I’m not sure this is going to be quite the tear-up anticipated and Cracking could well make all. I haven’t bet yet but were I to do so I think that would be my play.
Oh, and I’ll have to throw in a straight forecast with Sinead now!
<br>
And just briefly…
4:35 Chester
DARK ANGEL @ 9st 3lbs = 86.0<br>BOOKIEBASHER DUDE @ 9st 3lbs = 85.5<br>MARACANA BOY @ 9st 3lbs = 77.2
Dark Angel – 88.0<br>Bookiebasher Dude – 87.5<br>Maracana Boy – 79.0
Yes, Barry Hills has a good record here, but isn’t Dark Angel looking a bit too short? The race he ran in looked like a good race, but they didn’t go very fast. Just looking at speed figures, Dark Angel has nothing in hand of Bookiebasher Dude and has a rating which would make him look pretty vulnerable to a half-decent newcomer.
I really fancied Maracana Boy first time out but he ran poorly and the stable form is not encouraging just yet, and Elusive Deal makes more appeal on his debut, with the Fahey yard having sent out the useful Mister Hardy as their only 2yo to race so far.
Recommendation<br>Dark Angel is the most likely winner, but not a penalty kick and basically his current odds look too short.
Lay DARK ANGEL for a £5 risk in the win market<br>Lay DARK ANGELfor a £2.50 risk in the place market
<br>6:20 Kempton
MARIAS BUDDY @ 8st 4lbs = 102.7<br>SEVENTH GOLD @ 8st 6lbs = 86.4<br>LITTLE PETE @ 8st 10lbs = 84.9<br>TALK OF SAAFEND @ 8st 6lbs = 81.2<br>MISTER CAFNEX @ 8st 11lbs = 59.0
Marias Buddy – 94.8<br>Little Pete – 82.3<br>Seventh Cloud – 73.9 > 81.1<br>Talk Of Saafend – 76.2<br>Mister Cafnex – 57.6
Now that Bosun Breese doesn’t go, the ratings suggest this should go to Marias Buddy. Certainly, there are no newcomers which jump out at you, and Marias Buddy ran really well last week at Tipperary.
For me, there is not much value here, and although I was slightly tempted to throw the Phoenix Stakes entry Mister Cafnex into exactas (presumably he has shown considerably more at home than he did on his debut), I have resisted.
Marias Buddy could probably be backed, but she is racing on a different surface, has recently travelled over from Ireland, and will be very short indeed. It will be interesting just to see how she goes, as her two conquerors at Tipperary, South Dakota and Prize Spirit, achieved very high ratings indeed and might be very useful (or possibly over-rated by my figures!).
NO BET.
<br>
Hmmm – raw ratings produced the straight 1-2-3 at Chester yesterday, but the weight adjusted ratings mucked the order about and I’m doubting my logic now, even though it should make more sense to take into account the weight being carried. One result is not enough to change my mind but you’ll be glad to know slippery that the seeds of doubt have been well and truly sewn…
3:10 Goodwood
Ten Down – 90.8 > 94.8 > 101.2  = 101.2<br>Spirit Of Sharjah – 93.4  = 91.3<br>Affirmatively – 89.9 > 86.8  = 93.5<br>Baytown Blaze – 81.9 > 84.0 > 87.6 > 87.3  = 91.1<br>Romany Prince – 78.8  = 82.0
This looks a decent enough race but pretty weak for Listed status.
Romany Princess didn’t look particularly good on her debut, wasn’t strongly supported, and ran no more than a fair race. That race is working out ok, but she looks to have far too much to find here.
While it is interesting that Kingsgate Castle starts off in this company, the Best yard are not in great form and have no great reputation for first time out juvenile winners. With solid-looking form principals, he will need to be very good indeed to win this and may be here more for experience than anything else.
Baytown Blaze ran respectably again yesterday up at Chester and is on a black-type stealing mission. Whilst she could successfully grab 3rd or 4th here, any more than that looks unlikely on all known form.
Visually, I haven’t been overly impressed by the races Affirmatively has contested, and the ratings suggest she has a (smallish) mountain to climb here. Despite making all last time, she doesn’t seem to be particularly fast and race times bear that out. She may be capable of more, but will need to step up considerably on her first two efforts to get involved here – again, connections have probably spied this as a soft way to bag some pattern form.
This leaves the two market leaders, and choosing between them is quite difficult.
Dark Angel upheld Spirit Of Sharjah‘s form quite nicely yesterday at Chester, but that was clearly not the strongest Class 2 maiden ever. Major Eazy who had finished 3rd ran alright subsequently without setting the world alight.
Beforehand, the Newmarket race looked strong, and Spirit Of Sharjah won really well, probably with something in hand and almost certainly open to some improvement. He will need to run faster today but may well be capable of doing so.
The main opponent has to be Ten Down. This gelding has shown steady improvement, winning at Windsor at the weekend in a quickish time. To this point, he clearly has the fastest form in the book and will be no pushover in receipt of 3lbs from Spirit Of Sharjah.
<br>Recommendation<br>I agree with the market in that I make the race between these two, but to my mind things could be much closer than prices currently suggest. I would probably go:
Spirit Of Sharjah 10/11<br>Ten Down 5/4<br>12/1 bar
Given that 3/1+ is available on Ten Down, that makes this a reasonable selection, I hope…
TEN DOWN – £6 each-way<br>
One result is not enough to change my mind but you’ll be glad to know slippery that the seeds of doubt have been well and truly sewn…
I’m definitely not toasting your seeds of doubt in champagne NV! :biggrin:
As I mentioned previously all the handicapping literature I’ve read suggested a non weight approach and I had detected a positive pattern in your ratings and was concerned that adding weight would upset things..
I’ve noticed that you like Tooting and I favour a contrarian approach the trouble is your bets against the jolly have gone astray.
Make no bones about it your ratings have proved to be very accurate. Can I suggest you use them to determine if your view is different from the market using a system of traffic lights. <br>Green = ratings different from the market, time to wade in. <br>Red = ratings the same as the market, pass the race
Hamilton 6.20 – Mitie Two-Year-Old Maiden Stakes
New Colossus, Alpen Adventure, Meeriss, Royal Sovereign and Smileforawhile are short-listed and I think the Hamilton favourite backers could get off to a good start punting New Colossus. However :o ; at a price I do like the look of Smileforawhile. Hampered on his first run this well bred gelding cost 32,000gns at the Tattersalls sales and me may be under estimated in the market.
Royal Sovereign is bred for sprint distances (unlike others in this race) and cost the most of the entrants today (65,000gns at the Doncaster sales) like a moth drawn to a flame I’m tempted by his big price in the market.
a. New Colossus b. Smileforawhile c. Royal Sovereign
a/bc exacta
I am tending to agree slippery – I take the weights into account when generating the rating and until the nursery races start, I’ll leave it at that.
However, today Ten Down just ran way below the level of either of his last two runs, and Baytown Blaze could prove a useful yardstick if she is kept on the go, as her last four ratings have been very consistent.
6:20 Hamilton
Natural Rhythm – 93.4<br>Smileforawhile – 82.6<br>Alpen Adventure – 78.5<br>Turn And River – 73.0 > 76.5
There are indeed some interesting looking newcomers here, all from yards with decent or half-decent juvenile course records, so at least one or two of them are probably going to be quite talented. I think the Fretwell-owned New Colossus probably tops the list for me, but Meerios, Johnny Friendly, Royal Sovereign and Gin Genereux all look likely types to some extent.
Interestingly of the nine runners, only New Colossus and Johnny Friendly lack at least one big/valuable entry, so this could turn out to be quite a useful race.
Looking at the (unadjusted!!!) ratings, one would expect Alpen Adventure, Smileforawhile and even Turn And River to be capable of a bit more either this time or in the near future, but standing head and shoulders above them is Natural Rhythm.
Although he could probably do with a stiffer test in time, I imagine that Turn And River will tow them along at a fair clip and enable Natural Rhythm to put his experience to good use this time round.
Recommendation<br>NATURAL RHYTHM – small win bet
3:10 Lingfield
Barraland – 89.0 > 95.9<br>Ballinkelligs Boy – 72.9<br>Lord Of The Wing – 66.4
Whilst Ballinskelligs Boy and Lord Of The Wing are both no doubt capable of better than they showed on their debut, Barraland is the clear form pick and showed improvement last time at Pontefract. The degree to which recent rain may have affected the going today is an imponderable though and he looks short enough.
Of the newcomers, both Gosden and John Hills (perhaps a little surprisingly) have good course records with their juveniles, making Adab and Primed And Poised of interest. Gosden doesn’t seem to have hit the ground running at any great speed this season, whilst the first 2yo from the Hills yard was well-backed and ran quite well, so Primed And Poised makes more appeal of the pair, but again softish turf might not be the ideal going.
NO RECOMMENDATION
<br>2:30 Nottingham
Far Gone – 91.4<br>Rebel Aclaim – 88.8<br>Shamrock Lady – 85.6<br>Majigal – 82.4<br>Herolds Bay – 67.1 > 57.8
Far Gone finished runner-up in a race which is not working out at all and cannot really be entertained here despite the best rating. Conversely, Rebel Aclaim‘s effort behind Group Therapy looks fairly solid and she makes a lot more appeal.
None of the other three to have raced look up to this and it may be that unraced rivals pose the biggest threats.
Mick Channon has a very good 2yo record here, so Johar Jamal makes plenty of appeal with her multiple ‘big’ race entries, whilst others to look the part on paper include Altercation (W.Jarvis yard going well) and Monday Morning, who is a half-sister to Balthazar’s Gift.
All in all an interesting race but not of great appeal from a punting perspective.
NO BET, again!
½ length away from glory at 14/1 on Smileforawhile yesterday. :angry:
Domestic duties today so I’ll just list the horses in my opinion the winner should emerge from, preference in blue
Ascot 3:00 – – mcgee group maiden stakes (class 4)
Fitzroy Crossing, Swiss Franc, Yem Kinn
No bet
Warwick 6:00 – pca long service awards presentation maiden auction stakes (class 5)
Diademas, Dubai Dynamo, Khana Ras
No bet
Thirsk 6:15 – turf tv claiming stakes (class 5)
a. Vixens Daughter b. Prigsnov Dancer c. Shepherds Warning d. Echostar
Vixens Daughter (win) <br>ab/abcd exacta (6 lines)
Lots of races today…
1:30 Southwell
Valhillen – 93.0<br>Berryneal – 85.6<br>Ballycroy Boy – 83.4 > 54.5<br>Rub Of The Relic – 75.7<br>Mujada – 74.0 > 62.1<br>Indecision – 62.5<br>Chief Powderface – 60.5
Valhillen is the obvious one on form, but that race at Kempton didn’t look strong. Ballycroy Boy should do better back here and Berryneal ran promisingly first time. I don’t feel very confident all round, especially on this surface with so many unproven on it, and it wouldn’t surprise to see much better from Rub Of The Relic or Chief Powderface.
NO RECOMMENDATION
<br>2:10 Musselburgh
Celeberry – ?102.4?<br>Aaim To Storm – 84.5<br>Fol Hollow – 83.2<br>Grudge – 79.1<br>Keeparryappy – 70.5
As I’ve said, I’m almost entirely unconvinced by the Brocklesby form and think that, bar the winner, that was a very moderate running. There is a clear opportunity here then, because Fol Hollow has been off since finishing second in that race, but is almost guaranteed to take a big slice of the market today.
Of the others, Aaim To Storm was quite expensive second time round and ran a promising debut race, whilst Celeberry scored a decent rating when chasing home Inzone in Ireland. This pair will do for me.
AAIM TO STORM + CELEBERRY – 2 x £3 reversed f/c
<br>2:20 Wolverhampton
Lady Benjamin – 93.9<br>Lake Sabina – 91.1<br>Only In Jest – 81.4<br>Ephesian – 79.5<br>Zahwah – 73.1 > 79.2<br>Speedy Senorita – 78.4<br>Crying Aloud – 74.4<br>Fitolini – 61.2<br>Bantham Bay – 61.0
Quite a lot of very moderate form here. The Haslam-trained Lady Benjamin ought to go very close even from this draw on the back of her good debut, and, despite coming from a very weak race and looking like further may suit, Lake Sabina should run well here.
LADY BENJAMIN + LAKE SABINA – 2 x £1 reversed f/c
<br>2:50 Wolverhampton
Rio Taffeta – 84.4 > 92.7 > 86.9 > 89.0<br>Alexander Monarchy – 84.9<br>Riskie Blue – 42.3 > 83.6<br>Portway Lane – 53.4 > 82.5 > 74.0<br>Amazing Day – 73.5 > 78.0<br>Miss Antropist – 76.8 > 71.4<br>Janes Delight – 71.9<br>Rye Beau – 70.6
Rio Taffeta struggled at Brighton last time but should be nippy enough to go very close here, and looks a better option than relying on Alexander Monarchy improving under conditions which might not be ideal.
Most of the form here has been shown in some of the poorest races seen so far this year, but Janes Delight appeals as one likely improver and any significant progress may allow her to get involved.
RIO TAFFETA + JANES DELIGHT – 2 x £1 reversed exacta
<br>6:00 Windsor
Magical Speedfit – 98.7<br>Price Of My Heart – 89.5
The ground and very small field are both unknowns, but with Price Of My Heart penalised for winning no more than an ok race, things looks good for Magical Speedfit, out of the same mare as last year’s decent winner Hoh Mike. There are enough good soft-ground performances among MS’s relatives to offer hope on this surface and experience will presumably count for a lot.
MAGICAL SPEEDFIT – win (not sure if I’ll back it though)
<br>I’ll also be doing a very speculative R/F/C trixie on the three forecasts to a few pennies – not a recommendation really, but I’ll be sick if it comes up and I haven’t covered it! ;)
Wasn’t going to bother today (post weekend blues :angry: ) however here are my choices and funny enough they are similar to yours NV. No bets for me though
1:30 Southwell – Valhillen <br>2:10 Musselburgh – Aaim To Storm<br>2:20 Wolverhampton – Lake Sabina at a price Orbital Orchid<br>6:00 Windsor – Magical Speedfit
(Edited by slipperytoad at 12:59 pm on May 14, 2007)
Just ratings really…
4:25 York
Ingleby Star – 59.8 > 99.9<br>Just Sort It – 97.3<br>Thunder Bay – 90.8 > 94.8 > 94.6 > 96.4<br>Bahama Baileys – 93.5 > 96.3<br>Fred’s Lad – 93.1<br>New Jersey – 88.6 > 88.1<br>Caprima – 74.5<br>Tikinheart – 70.7
Softer ground than has been the case for much of the season so far, so hard to be confident about anything here. The top two rated Ingleby Star and Just Sort It make as much appeal as anything here.
<br>6:45 Bath
Hobson – 94.1<br>Aide Memoir – 93.0<br>Shatter Resistant – 91.8 > 85.6<br>Regal Rhythm – 87.7 > 89.5<br>Andrasta – 85.1 > 86.0<br>Tamrai Dancer – 77.5
The once-raced pair Hobson and Aide Memoir are probably the most likely winners but two newcomers I’ll be looking closely at are Choisky and Mairead’s Boy.<br>
Been a bit busy, but had a look today…
2:10 Lingfield
Eager Diva – 80.4 > 90.4<br>Talk Of Saafend – 76.2 > 83.1<br>Primed And Poised – 80.1
Nothing really solid on form and apart from decent support for the Noseda newcomer Baffled, nothing really solidly supported in the market.
Obviously Baffled is thought to have considerable ability but the yard’s juveniles often improve for the run; with two promising runs and an american pedigree, Eager Diva is narrowly preferred.
<br>2:20 Ayr
Fitzroy Crossing – 92.3 > 89.6<br>Alpen Adventure – 78.5 > 88.6<br>Nine Stories – 84.9<br>Ink Spot – 83.5<br>Glenluji – 79.2
Fitzroy Crossing has shown talent on both runs, but did not really progress at all. He has a very good chance of winning today but is probably still vulnerable.
Of the rivals here, Alpen Adventure may well benefit from this extra furlong and has the benefit of two runs, including an improved effort last time. Ink Spot may be capable of better, but was pretty disappointing first time out compared to market expectations. Similarly, Nine Stories looks to have something to offer, but I would be quite surprised if that was at distances less than a mile.
There are a few semi-interesting newcomers and the two that I’m most interested in are Bere Davis from the in-form David Evans yard, and Bourbon Highbull from the Haslam yard which had a debut 2yo winner only the other day.
Recommendation<br>Whilst Fitzroy Crossing will almost certainly run well, he looks beatable and overly short in the betting – the value may lie in opposing him.
6 x 40p exacta combination<br>BOURBON HALL, BERE DAVIS, ALPEN ADVENTURE
3 x £1.20 exactas<br>BOURBON HALL to beat FITZROY CROSSING<br>BERE DAVIS to beat FITZROY CROSSING<br>ALPEN ADVENTURE to beat FITZROY CROSSING
(Edited by non vintage at 8:14 am on May 23, 2007)
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