- This topic has 133 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
A little too much Bacardi last night :(
Exacta addendum to the above selection.
a. Waveline b. Carolina Belle c. Deal Flipper d. Feeling Proud
ab/cd 4 lines. <br>cd/cdab 6 lines. <br>
2:00 Lingfield
Andrasta – 85.1
Only one horse rated here and Andrasta has run to the kind of level which suggests both that she has some ability and is probably beatable by decent horses. Her experience is an obvious plus, but the continuing underperformance of the Meehan juveniles is a clear negative. She is a bit like turning over a 7 or 8 on Play Your Cards Right.
Of the rest of the field, Carolina Belle makes definite appeal (due in no small part to her considerable sales price) and Waveline would be interesting but for my concerns around her stable’s current form.
At bigger prices, I agree with you slippery regarding Deal Flipper (with Winkworth quite regularly having half-decent 2yos these days) and would also throw Bellalatino into the mix.
That said, with or without the assistance of rum, I can’t see myself parting with any cash here. For the record, I think Andrasta will probably finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th.
<br>2:50 Musselburgh
Fast Feet – 86.4<br>Timewatch – 83.1<br>In Honour – 81.4<br>Ingleby Star – 59.8
Only five runners, but three of the four to have run showed distinct promise, the other being backed as if possessing more ability than he showed, whilst the newcomer is nicely bred and from a decent stable.
Fast Feet ran well enough first time out, possibly looking as though the experience was needed, and the form of that race is shaping up ok whilst not looking overly exciting.
There are mixed form messages from the race in which Timewatch showed promise, with the alright Varinia and the very modest Little Finch both finishing worryingly close up to hold the form down. Timewatch shaped as though possibly needing further, which might not be too much of a surprise for a horse sired by Fantastic Light, and he has been weakish in early exchange trades.
In Honour is the only runner here to lack any entries in big 2yo sales/sprint races, but ran a most encouraging race on his debut and connections won this race two years ago. Early support is a positive sign as is the victory of the more kinkily-named stablemate In Uniform at Bath this week.
Quarrymaster is a late 2yo but other than that makes quite a lot of appeal, with JHJ having a 1 from 1 record with juveniles at Musselburgh in recent years, and this one being by the speedy Captain Rio (albeit he is still waiting for his first winner). He has not been particularly backed early on, but this race might not be quite as strong a contest as some are thinking.
Recommendation<br>Overall, my feeling is that Fast Feet is potentially vulnerable here and that he will be overbet, whilst Timewatch will possibly be better over further, and Ingleby Star might need more time.
This leaves two and I’ll have eeny-weeny play as follows:
QUARRYMASTER – £2 win<br>QUARRYMASTER + IN HONOUR – 2 x 50p reversed exacta, 2 x 50p reversed forecast
2:50 5f – e b f / edmonds.co.uk median auction
Had a quick look at this race (without the benefit of alcohol) and like you NV I’ll make a small wager on Quarrymaster and from a breeding perspective Ingleby Star who blew his chances at the start last time out and could make amends today.
Virtual exacta as follows
a. Quarrymaster b. Ingleby Star  c. Fast Feet
ab/abc (6 lines)<br>
A nice exacta twice – very good indeed slippery!!!   :)
(Edited by non vintage at 3:06 pm on May 4, 2007)
Thanks NV. I think I should stay off the booze.. very unprofessional :biggrin:
(Edited by slipperytoad at 4:49 pm on May 4, 2007)
Your e/w lucky 31 for today,
Kids inheritance 4.25U (well handicapped, reunited with winning rider, trainer decent record at track)
Golden Dixie 2.30G (CD winner, Seb interesting booking)
Meccas Mate 4.0N (travelled like a dream last time without getting any luck in running, better at five but has won over six, and Dettori booked, loads of ticks in the right boxes, and a double figure price to boot, Get On)
Minority Report 3.0T (last years winner, probably laid out for race, shrewd trainer, last years winning jockey on board)
Highland Warrior 4.40T (finished in front of second fav danzig river last time without getting much daylight and is, and 6 pound better off with good apprentice rory moore taking 5 off his back.)
Golden Dixie seb uninteresting booking, will win<br>Meccas Mate ran like a hairy goat but will win <br>Highland Warrior ran a shocker<br>Minority Report beaten by the draw<br>Kids Inheritance at least he softened the blow
Quote: from madman marz on 11:24 am on May 5, 2007[br]Your e/w lucky 31 for today,
Kids inheritance 4.25U (well handicapped, reunited with winning rider, trainer decent record at track)
Golden Dixie 2.30G (CD winner, Seb interesting booking)
Meccas Mate 4.0N (travelled like a dream last time without getting any luck in running, better at five but has won over six, and Dettori booked, loads of ticks in the right boxes, and a double figure price to boot, Get On)
Minority Report 3.0T (last years winner, probably laid out for race, shrewd trainer, last years winning jockey on board)
Highland Warrior 4.40T (finished in front of second fav danzig river last time without getting much daylight and is, and 6 pound better off with good apprentice rory moore taking 5 off his back.)<br>
<br>Off topic???
Just quickly today…
2:05 Hamilton
Taurian – 88.5<br>Willyn – 85.4<br>Guertino – 79.5<br>(She’s Our Dream – nr – 77.2)
On ratings at these weights, I have Willyn and Taurian together and well clear of Guertino. It will take something useful to beat them so despite some support for the Johnston horse, I’ll be playing…
WILLYN – £2 win<br>WILLYN + TAURIAN – 2 x £1 reversed f/c
I could crash and burn today so I’ll be playing to very small stakes.
Modus operandi for the following bet are potentially two selections in each race (most likely winner; most likely long-shot selections in bold). Exacta perms are based on a positive expectation of win bets.
Kempton 2:00 – betrescue antepostmag.com e b f maiden stakes
a. No Nines b. Valhillen
Reverse forecast (2 lines)
Warwick 2:10 – european breeders’ fund primrose maiden fillies’ stakes (class 5)
a. Jennifers Joy b. Longoria c. Alexander Monarchy d. Fabuleux Cherie e. Aide Memoir f. Marmite g. Ramatni
ab/abcdefg (12 lines)
Windsor 2:20 – at the races maiden stakes
a. Master Chef b. Ramblin Bob c. Luscious Lips d. Coasting e. Rough Rock f. Ten Down g. Magical Speedfit
ab/abcdefg (12 lines)
Newcastle 3:05 5f – e.b.f./grange interiors median auction maiden stakes
a. Shatter Resistant b. Latin Dancer c. Tikinheart d. Lucky Stream e. Pelican Prince
ab/abcde (8 lines)
Apologies for tinkering with the selections but I’m trying to factor last minute information i.e. the ground conditions and the market..
(Edited by slipperytoad at 11:45 am on May 7, 2007)
2:10 Warwick
Jennifers Joy – 98.6<br>Sinead Of Aglish – 96.8 > 88.0<br>Ramatni – 88.3<br>Quick Sands – 84.4<br>Bold Diva – 54.3
My feeling here is that Jennifers Joy will be better given a stiffer test than this, and that Sinead Of Aglish did remarkably well to finish second on the wrong side last time out. Her rating of 88.0 for that effort probably underestimates her run and she has already shown course form.
Of the remainder, Ramatni should go well this time and Quick Sands could be stronger and keep going longer, but I don’t think they represent much value at likely odds.
Recommendation<br>SINEAD OF AGLISH – £4 win
<br>
3:05 Newcastle
Bahama Baileys – 93.5<br>Shatter Resistant – 91.8
I don’t have an awful lot to add here. Both rated horses look to have decent chances here and should finish pretty close to each other; there is every chance this will be first and second.
Newcomers who make some appeal include Pelican Prince (yard does well here, but might be better for a run and trading pretty short now), Gain Share (stable won this last year with a debutant, but again fairly short now) and more speculatively Firenza Bond (might have attracted a bit more early support though).
Recommendation<br>The market has this about right and I don’t see any particular angle to take with these. I expect one of the raced horses to win, but prices and unknowns don’t make dutching look much of an option. NO BET
2:20 Windsor
Ten Down – 90.8 > 94.8<br>Red Expresso – 90.8<br>Rough Rock – 83.7
With the benefit of a run, I think Red Expresso may well be able to reverse form with Ten Down, especially if he is a bit more organised early on. Ten Down has run well on both starts but wouldn’t seem to be getting home just yet and might set this up for finishers.
Rough Rock shaped as though in need of further on his debut and that seems to be backed up by his family connections. He also has an apprentice replacing Dettori, but he is trading at a big price considering his potential and will be interesting if they go quickly early on.
Of the others, Master Chef is obviously nicely bred but shouldn’t be a 5f 2yo, and a couple at big prices that make a little appeal are Nathan Dee and Ramblin Bob, both of whom come from yards in fair form and with reasonable records with juveniles here.
Recommendation<br>RED EXPRESSO to finish 1st or 2nd with any of {Rough Rock, Ramblin Bob, Nathan Dee} – 6 x £1 exactas
2:00 Kempton
Carolina Blini – 83.9 > 73.0<br>Sirjoshua Reynolds – 80.7<br>Abfabfong – 79.0<br>No Nines – 70.3<br>Replicator – 67.7
Nothing hugely stands out here, with Carolina Blini disappointing last time but presumably having shown more at home, and some promise shown by both Abfabfong and Sirjoshua Reynolds, but not enough to mark them out as good things to take a race like this next time out.
Chuck in No Nines who was backed last time but showed very little, and two quite interesting newcomers and it looks like anything could happen – the market for this seven runner race currently has nothing trading at shorter than 5.3 or bigger than 11.
However, a dig into sibling performance does provide something of an angle, with Sirjoshua Reynolds being related to a whole host of horses who are or were much better on dirt/sand than turf.
Recommendation<br>SIRJOSHUA REYNOLDS – £3 win<br>SIRJOSHUA REYNOLDS + CAROLINA BLINI – 2 x £1 reversed exacta
Based on results thus far this project is proving to be relatively successful. I took the opportunity over the bank holiday weekend to review my notes and here are my observations thus far.
1. Breeding does matter! <br>2. Ratings are extremely good at identify the main contenders (well done NV.. top stuff!) :biggrin: <br>3. I knew this fact already (based on handicapping literature I have read) but the market is also extremely accurate in identifying the main contenders. <br>4. Racecourse experience does count but sometimes the market overacts to this factor to make some market leaders false favourites. <br>5. Once ratings and market opinion have been taken into account; form book comments and speed ratings can be used as a final arbiter to differentiate contenders
Now that he form is becoming more exposed it will be interesting to see other methods such as speed/class ratings shift the balance to provide that all important edge.. :o
Funnily enough slippery, I was about to post a similar review…
For me:
1. Unless there is a good reason to oppose the top-rated horse, do not. I need to trust them more than I have done so far.
2. Do not assume that horses will improve substantially from their debut runs without good reason.
3. Experience is important, but consider the unraced horses more in races where the only form shown is lowly-rated.
4. Pay close attention to the market and exchange trades and think about why runners are being supported or drifting.
<br>Yesterday was a typical day, where the few quid that I spread around yielded no returns and which in hindsight perhaps should have done.
2:00 Kempton – This was a Class 4 contest, where 5 of the 7 runners had previously raced. None had scored a rating of higher than 83.9 and this should have suggested that the two ‘interesting’ newcomers had big chances. They finished 1st and 2nd (11/2 + 13/2) with the highest rated rival in third
2:10 Warwick – This was won at 5/2 by the top-rated horse, which had achieved a rating of 98.6
2:20 Windsor – This was also won at 5/2 by the top-rated horse, which had achieved a rating of 94.8
3:05 Newcastle – This was won at 4/1 by the top-rated horse, which had achieved a rating of 93.5
D’oh!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.