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5:40 Windsor
Affirmatively – 89.9<br>Carolina Blini – 83.9<br>Polish Priory – 82.3<br>Seventh Cloud – 73.9<br>Zahwah – 73.1
A very difficult race to weigh up, with five once-raced types who all showed at least a little ability on their debuts without really standing out as a sure-fire five furlong winner in the near future.
Of those to have raced, Affirmatively scored the best rating and in receipt of 4lbs from the next highest rated (Carolina Blini) ought to be able to go close now. There are also grounds for thinking that aforementioned Meehan filly might be able to do better this time, although the same yard’s Regal Rhythm ran moderately at the weekend and the 2yos might not be immensely forward at this stage.
Zahwah will, or certainly should, be a huge price here. Whilst she didn’t show loads first time out, she wasn’t completely disgraced and holds an interesting later season entry. The draw may not be ideal, but recent results at the track suggest that a high draw is not quite the pre-requisite it once was. For a smallish stable, Portman’s 3-18 recent record with 2yos here is more than respectable.
A further issue here is an abundance of might-be-alright newcomers. In a similar way to the runners with form, few jump out at you as being really obvious useful early 2yo types, but several have pedigrees and/or connections which offer some encouragement. For a variety of reasons (including snippets of early money), Perfect Flight, Tan Bonita and Talk Of Saafend make a bit of appeal as three who might go well.
Recommendation <br>Basically, an unfathomable race which I shouldn’t contemplate going anywhere near. However, I would be hopping mad if Zahwah won and I hadn’t had a little on her, so…
ZAHWAH – £2 win tote
ZAHWAH to be 1st or 2nd with any of {Affirmatively, Carolina Blini, Perfect Flight, Tan Bonita, Talk Of Saafend} – 10 x 20p exactas<br>
Zahwah ran well (really well for a 50/1 shot) but wasn’t able to keep going close home and finished only 4th. A moral victory, but nothing more!
2:10 Bath
Avertitop – 82.8 > 99.0<br>Alexander Nepotism – 90.8<br>Little Pete – 82.3<br>Alfredtheordinary – 79.4<br>Shipboard Romance – 75.5
Of the newcomers, there are only two for me that make any particular appeal. The first of these is In Uniform who is entered for the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes, but he is weak in the market and on pedigree would be anything but a sharp 2yo.
The other debutant of note is Hobson, who was quite a cheap purchase but whose family connections suggest good early form is very possible, and from a stable which is doing well (including a winner here). A bit of early support is a further positive.
Two raced horses stand out on form, and I think the market may currently have them the wrong way round. The favourite (c. 2.44) Alexander Nepotism ran quite well first time but is bred to need substantially further in time and also hung, which would not be an advantage round a track like Bath. He also hails from the Meehan yard whose juveniles don’t seem to be especially ready to go and who has sent out a couple of disappointing second-time-out runners in the last few days.
Conversely, the Hannon stable seems to be in very good form and Avertitop not only posted a much better rating – both on my ratings and on topspeed ratings – last time, but looked a straightforward speedy type. He wasn’t stopping last time (the horse that beat him showed an excellent turn of foot, but the pack didn’t really close) and my feeling is that if he can lead as they straighten up, his experience will ensure that he is very difficult indeed to pass. Currently around 3.6 on BF, he looks by far the most likely winner to me.
Recommendation<br>AVERTITOP – £6 win @ 3.6<br>AVERTITOP + HOBSON – 2 x £1 reversed exacta
(Edited by non vintage at 8:41 am on May 1, 2007)
Footnote to the above – Hobson is now a non-runner and Avertitop is available at around 3.7!
Ascot 2:10 – waterhomes.com Garter Conditions Stakes
The figures have thrown up Fat Boy and Mount Pleasure as the speedier types on breeding in this company. Mount Pleasure ticks all the boxes in terms of dosage, speed, trainer ratings and is preferred of the two. The Johnson runner Battlecruiser is a stranger in the field so cannot be dismissed easily; he’ll form part of small virtual combination exacta with the named horses.
a. Mount Pleasure b. Battlecruiser c. Fat Boy
ab/abc (4 lines)
(Edited by slipperytoad at 11:16 pm on May 1, 2007)
2:10 Ascot
Mount Pleasure – 99.4<br>Kersaint – 98.8<br>Fat Boy – 95.3<br>Thunder Bay – 90.8 > 94.8 > 94.6<br>Sauze D’Oulx > 89.3 > 93.8<br>Littlemisssunshine > 91.3<br>Major Eazy > 84.7
This looks a really good race with loads of winners pitched against each other, including several very unexposed types, and two promising once-raced horses plus a potentially very decent looking newcomer.
On ratings, Mount Pleasure and Kersaint have a bit of an edge, but Fat Boy is only just behind them and is being well supported.
I cannot find an obvious edge, so for me this is a race to watch with notebook and pen at the ready. You’re a chicken – yes I know.
<br>2:20 Pontefract
Cee Bargara – 91.5 > 93.9<br>Irving Place – 89.8<br>Barraland – 89.0
The trio to have run have all shown distinct promise (at a similar level) and for me represent the three most likely winners.
Currently, Cee Bargara and Irving Place look to be vying for favouritism at around 4.1, whilst Barraland is trading at around 12-13. Just in terms of value given that I don’t see there is much between them, that makes the Channon horse look good value, particularly given that he has a decent enough 2yo track record with a level-stakes profit.
Of the newcomers, there is some support for Atabaas Pride (M. Johnston), Smileforawhile (K. Ryan) and at bigger prices Fyodorovich (J. Wainwright), but for me none makes particular appeal first time up against the proven form already shown.
Recommendation
BARRALAND – £2 win<br>BARRALAND to finish 1st or 2nd with either Cee Bargara or Irving Place – 4 x 75p forecasts
"Much to learn, you still have."
A victory for my ratings, with the two top rated runners winning. In fact a 1st and 3rd in the Ascot race and a 1-2-3 in correct order at Pontefract.
Needless to say, despite all that, I’m a fiver poorer. Clearly, I need to listen to Yoda more and learn to resist the dark side…
They are my ratings from the spreadsheet. If you look at it, there is a column on there giving the topspeed figures as a reference, but the figure in bold after the name of the horse is my rating.
At the moment, I am reproducing these in their raw state, but what with penalties and nurseries and differing auction stakes conditions, I’ll start pre-processing the spreadsheet ratings to take into account the weight to be carried shortly.
That Yoda is a very wise chap. Wonder what his favourite staking plan is?
;)
You call tell me to poke off NV as I’ve never created ratings of any kind myself, however everything I’ve read in respect to handicapping indicates that ratings should be weight independent. For my edification why are you choosing to include weight when my gut feel tells me that you should wait for a bigger sample size before altering the ratings or create two sets of ratings with or without weight and monitor the progress of each?
(Edited by slipperytoad at 8:02 pm on May 2, 2007)
Could be getting ahead of myself after todays win however there are coupled of short price favourites that are begging to be taken on..
Cattrick – 2.20 Catterickbridge Co Uk Maiden Auction Stakes (5) 5f
At predicted SP of 13/8, Holly Golightley is really short for a horse that was unlucky in running last timeout. I remember Barry Dennis saying on ATR one day that bookies love unlucky horses as it allows them to take advantage of the of the psychology of the crowd for a sure thing that predictably fails to deliver. I’ll take a leaf out of his book and oppose the jolly with Complete Frontline at a price and the once raced Lady Rangali. Pitty about Grudges trainer form at the course, his breeding suggest he’s one to follow if running well today.
Virtual exacta
a. Complete Frontline b. Lady Rangali c. Grudge d. Lady Benjamin
ab/abcd (6 lines)
Folkestone 2.30 – John Smith’s Maiden Auction Stakes (5) 5f
Yep, all indications point to a Dan Tuckett win, but at 4/6 when breading suggests he’ll be suited to more of a stamina test. Hobson to oppose him
Slippery,
I don’t really buy into the idea that weight is virtually irrelevant when it comes to speed figures or horse perfomance. If that was the case, I would expect to see some consistently hugely skewed stats from handicap races, and I don’t think that’s what we’ve got going on.
For me, if two horses dead-heat for first place in a race where one carried 9st 7lbs and the other 8st 3lbs, it is pretty clear that one of those horses has (in absolute terms) run better than the other one.
If you ignore weight as a factor, you would be saying that the same result would be likely if they had a rematch off level weights. I can’t see the logic in that.
But variety is the spice of life, and the best thing about developing your own ratings is that they won’t (or shouldn’t) be the same as someone else’s. Anyway…
<br>2:30 Folkestone
Dan Tucket – 91.5<br>Danny Boy Blue – 71.8
Dan Tucket looks much the better horse of the two to have raced, and in this small field ought to be able to make that count.
Of the newcomers, a Bill Turner 2yo must always be given a second glance in low-key early season events, but he hasn’t had too many go well this year and Secret Meaning doesn’t look too obvious a type.
Hobson, as mentioned early this week, was a cheap purchase but has an attractively nippy perdigree and if anything is going to challenge Dan Tucket, this may be the one.
Overall, the current odds look about right and Dan Tucket should win (especially given that Channon is the only trainer represented to have trained a 2yo winner at this course recently) but for me there are too many questions and unknowns for taking shortish odds-on.
<br>2:20 Catterick
Lady Rangali – 86.4<br>Holly Golightley – 84.8<br>Complete Frontline – 81.4<br>Little Finch – 72.9 > 69.3
I agree that usually a horse which seems to have been (and is widely reported as being) very unlucky is one to try and oppose next time and I think we may have the ammo here.
Holly Golightley was made favourite for a similarly average looking contest, and finished a fairly close 7th having failed to secure a clear run. But that was some way out and she should not be treated as if she would have won that contest.
The Duffield stable has been going well (might just have a very good day here today) and looks to have a very interesting contender here in Lady Rangali. She ran well from a disadvantageous field position at Beverley and scored a higher rating than any other raced rival.
Complete Frontline has a definite chance of getting involved if coming on a bit from a promising enough debut, but Little Finch already looks more of a nursery type.
I can’t find too much among the newcomers to get excited about on their debuts, although if I had to pick i would say that Moonlight Gambler and Select Committee are the likelier types. I think they might be ones for the future though…
Recommendation
LADY RANGALI – £4.40 win<br>LADY RANGALI + COMPLETE FRONTLINE – 2 x 80p reversed exactas
Well done slippery – a good pick although a slightly disappointing (real) exacta return, probably caused by the ‘Lady’ connection.
Another victory for the ratings today, with both winners top rated, and although only winning narrowly, still very encouraging at this early stage of the season.
:)
Cheers, NV
That cured my disappointment after yesterday’s "dud".<br>Well done yourself on Lady Rengali at Catterick.
Z
virtual pat on back to you NV… top bombing on the ratings.. not planning to sell them eh? :biggrin:
Lingfield – 2.00 Arenaleisureplc Com Maiden Stakes Fillies (5)
Fillies Event! No Form! On the All Weather surface! Call me stupid but couldn’t resist a speculative punt after a few glasses of Bacardi Gold I purchased on a recent business trip to Germany! :biggrin:
Waveline is preferred over Carolina Belle
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