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well done.. FSL and all those that followed the tip 😎  As mentioned at the start "The ultimate aim of this thread will be to share/exchange knowledge about handicapping 2yo races"
Can with share with us your rationale for selection? Its ok if you want to keep it to yourself..
(Edited by slipperytoad at 4:32 pm on Mar. 31, 2007)
I basically come to the conclusion looking at the pedigrees, whether its dam and sire won first time out, and then looking at the prices. I was going to do a write-up but ran out of time. I’ll put up how I do it when I get time, but its not very logical and it will give you a giggle for the day 🙂
2:10 Lingfield
I did a detailed post on my novicy methods for compiling a rating for 2yos with the emphasis on pedigrees last year. I have tweaked it this year but am concerned it still focuses on the pedigree too much rather than training and jockey influences. The top rating it allows me to give an unraced horse is 100. I transfer my ratings into prices by this year using a tool our esteemed leader Cormack gave me!
New Balls Please 53<br>Thunder Bay 66<br>Grange Poppy 65<br>Mama Leo 63<br>Miss Antropist 63<br>Only In Jest 69
Based on these ratings to a 100% book the prices are
Only In Jest 2.4/1<br>Thunder Bay 3.9/1<br>Grange Poppy 4.4/1<br>Mama Leo 5.8/1<br>Miss Antropist 5.8/1<br>New Balls please 44/1
Due to the unscientific methods used in establishing prices, in races where unraced horses form a large part (or all) of the book, the market advantage margin % must be at least 30%. If the forecast price of 9/2 for Only In Jest materialises then that will have a margin of 38% and will become a bet. If more than one have a mrgin of at least 30% then I will place multiple bets on the race. The margins are much smaller for raced 2yo fields. Okay I’ll be up and about at 11AM probably (yeah student alert, 5AM bedtime i know) to check the prices and officially make any bets. Hope this hasn’t confused you too much :). The size of the stake is decided by the % advantage.<br>
(Edited by FlatSeasonLover at 9:33 pm on April 1, 2007)
Quote: from slipperytoad on 4:30 pm on Mar. 31, 2007[br]<br>Can with share with us your rationale for selection? Its ok if you want to keep it to yourself..
I’ve nothing I know that no-one else will know really! I’m happy to share anything I know, but I really don’t know much.
3pts Only In Jest @ 8/1 w/ Sporting odds<br>1pt Miss Antropolist @ 10/1 w/ Ladbrokes
FSL decided to swerve this race, as I’ve decided that I need a little more form to go on before punting. Listened to the race on internet radio seemed like an open contest ..
Regarding the Brocklesby, those I’ll be taking out of the race in the positive are the winner Mistert Hardy, Not My Choice (who finished fourth – not quite getting home in testing ground, I think he’ll win a maiden if there’s less emphasis on stamina next time) and George Moore’s Runswick Bay. The last-named is a good sort on looks and is bred to be suited by further so I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t go on. Would look to be against Fol Hollow if conditions place less emphasis on stamina next time. He seemed to be outpaced and though it could be greeness, on a speedier track I think he might be off his feet again. Good chance he’ll be over bet next time too, fast-finishers usually are.
Didn’t thhink the either the Southwell or Lingfield race today anywhere near close to the quality of the first 2 events we’ve had, though the Southwell race gave further pointers to what I thought already, that being that the race Dubai Princess won, is good form for the time of year.
Not the best of starts then -4pts. It was obviously fancied by someone as it went off at 5/1 but didn’t really pick up. Interesting that the Southwell race was won clearly by the only horse to have had a race.
Ten Down looked a speedy sort at Nottingham and won’t be a maiden for a long I wouldn’t have thought.
Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 9:32 pm on April 1, 2007[br]2:10 Lingfield
I did a detailed post on my novicy methods for compiling a rating for 2yos with the emphasis on pedigrees last year.<br>
FSL, any chance you cn put a link up to that thread, i’d like to have a read
<br>Keep an eye out for Tazawud being stepped up in trip, i was surprised to see this one starting out over min trip, needs at least 6f or even better 7/8f imhaho
(Edited by empty wallet at 6:18 pm on April 5, 2007)
I think the thread may have perished in the spring cleaning EW. It would of been a good laugh but I don’t save copys of posts I do (except some write-ups) so I have no way of recovering it.
Greetings all!
I’ve only just seen this thread and will try and join in and contribute where I can.
Bizarrely, I decided last week to keep a ‘database’ (it’s a spreadsheet of course, because if it ain’t in Excel, it ain’t worth doing!) of speed-based figures for all 2yos this season.
This is based almost exactly on my old (c.1998-2000) AWT rating calculator, and takes into account the usual time, weight, distance, and going adjustment factors.
I am very happy to keep this data online if anyone is interested in it – I don’t think it will be of great use in isolation (particularly this early in the season), but could augment other form/pedigree study.
<br>In terms of what I consider when looking at 2yo non-form factors…
> I agree that the race record and preferences of the dam and any siblings/half-siblings is a big consideration
> I’m not bothered too much about jockeys, but current trainer form is well worth digging into
> Similarly, I always look at the course record for the trainer with regards to 2yos, particularly with the bigger yards – connections often tend to introduce good horses at certain tracks (and even in certain races) and run ‘dross’ or uncompetitive runners at other tracks
> With a strong exchange-based market available, it would be folly to ignore the money trading on a race, particularly early on (up to about an hour before racing starts). Those who are involved in the ownership, training and preparation of an unexposed (possibly unraced) 2yo are likely to have more of an idea of how it will perform, and BF will generally offer the best insight into this for most not-in-the-know punters.
> Finally (for now anyway), I always look to see what future races if any the horse is entered up for. This can be interpreted a number of ways but, for example, if the horse is entered in a seller in a few days time, I might not expect too much from it in a half-decent maiden. Similarly, if it is entered in all sorts of super sprints and big sales races, I might look on it more favourably…
<br>So far all sensible enough things, so now a confession – this is (I think) probably a totally irrational consideration and is one that has stuck with me since landing a successful teenage each-way bet on Pipe Major…
I ‘like’ 2yo horses racing over five or six furlongs who are:<br>(1) by sires which do not yet have an ‘average winning distance index’ in the Racing Post (mostly first and second season sires), and<br>(2) by dams whose sire has an ‘average winning distance’ figure of between about 8.0f and 9.9f
Although essentially nonsense, I think there may be something to this, but have never really tried to explore it, being happy just to look closely at and occasionally back horses which fit this description!
🙂
(Edited by non vintage at 8:09 am on April 8, 2007)<br>
(Edited by non vintage at 8:16 am on April 8, 2007)
2:20 Musselburgh
This race features one runner, Ballycroy Boy, who showed reasonable form on Monday in a Southwell dirt maiden, and 9 unraced horses.
There are four trainers with decent 2yo course records (at least 3 winners in the last 5 years and strike rates of 14%-19%), these being Messrs Barron, Smart, Ryan and Dods.
None of the other runners makes any particular appeal at first glance, so I’ll concentrate on this quintet to start with…
Ballycroy Boy (A. Bailey)<br> – some relatives’ form suggests softer ground might be preferable<br> – speed rating (83.4, topspeed just 26) no more than quite good, although improvement very possible<br> – trainer has had a 2nd (this one) and 3rd from two 2yo runners this year, and seems to be in good form<br> – trainer has only had four 2yo runners here in recent years and no winners<br> – slightly weak in the market early on, although not alarmingly so
Elijah Pepper (T. Barron)<br> – stable in form<br> – hard to fathom US pedigree from available info<br> – very weak in the market early on, suggesting a competitive performance is not expected
Guertino (B. Smart)<br> – close relatives do not scream out that this will be guaranteed to go well first time out<br> – sold for much less as a yearling than as a foal<br> – is entered in the Weatherby’s Super Sprint<br> – very strong in early exchanges (3.2ish -v- RP forecast s.p. of 10/1)
Eager Diva (K. Ryan)<br> – trainers 2yos going ok without running as well as market expectations so far<br> – another hard to work out US pedigree<br> – weak in market early on
Maracana Boy (M. Dods)<br> – held value (slight increase) between foal and yearling sales<br> – both winning siblings ran well first time out and showed good form quickly<br> – entered in St. Leger Sales race<br> – very solid in early market at around 8.0<br> – trainer has had all four runners placed this week, all running slightly above market expectation<br> – fits my irrational sire/damsire average winning distance profile! :biggrin:
Of the remaining runners, Mel Brittain’s Straight has a Super Sprint entry but his first time out stats and current form don’t inspire. Howards Way makes some appeal on paper and has attracted some early nibbles, but of Semple’s 21 2yo winners in recent years, only 1 has come before June, so my feeling is he will improve for the run, despite two big sales race entries.
Conclusion<br>I make this between three horses, with MARACANA BOY making the most appeal. Ballycroy Boy should go well and has experience on his side, but will probably be overbet as a result of his previous ‘quite good’ run and the value could be to oppose him here. Guertino is obviously expected to run a really good race and is seen as the chief danger.
MARACANA BOY – £4 win tote<br>MARACANA BOY + GUERTINO – 2 x £1 reversed exacta
<br>
(Edited by non vintage at 9:23 am on April 8, 2007)
Based on my 2yo ratings, I have the three raced runners in the opening 2:10 at Folkestone rated as follows:
85.7 – Geoffdaw<br>85.2 – Non Sucre<br>84.4 – Rio Taffeta
These ratings all appear high enough to suggest that this trio have significant ability, and with the benefit of experience may be able to improve this time round. For me, there is a fair chance that the newcomers may not be able to match them on this occasion, although I do acknowledge that the Hannon horse is being supported.
The tightness of the ratings are not totally reflected by the market, so I will attempt to exploit this as follows:
NON SUCRE – £2 win
NON SUCRE + RIO TAFFETA – 2 x £1 reversed f/c
1st – NON SUCRE or RIO TAFFETA<br>2nd – GEOFFDAW<br> 2 x £1 exactas
Close but no cigar, although the three ‘experienced’ runners did finish 1-2-3, and the finishing order was as per the ratings…
Darn!
Dont worry NV.. there will be plenty of races this season to recoup .. I’m just waiting for the form to settle before punting.. getting itchy fingers though .. 😮
Just some notes for today…
1:35 Lingfield
88.3 – New Balls Please<br>82.3 – Hucking Harmony
For a short-priced favourite, Hucking Harmony makes little appeal, having registered no more than an average figure when well beaten by Dubai Princess and potentially hinted at some quirks.
New Balls Please finished close up (slightly better figure) here in a race which looks less than solid, and my feeling is that the well-supported Cake will probably be up to this if pretty straight.
<br>3:45 Newcastle
90.8 – Thunder Bay<br>86.8 – Mister Hardy<br>74.0 – Varinia<br>54.4 – Bank On Bertie<br>43.5 – Northgate Lodge
The Brocklesby doesn’t seem to take as much winning these days as it once did, and the ratings suggest that Mister Hardy put in no more than a reasonable performance in winning. That said, he did win nicely and can obviously improve.
Thunder Bay won the aforementioned dodgy looking Lingfield maiden, and again can probably improve to be competitive here. A higher rating and much bigger price makes him more attractive than Mister Hardy in this event, but hardly a good bet.
Of the others, Varinia’s race may turn out to be ok but she looks one for a bit later in the season, and Cayman Fox makes more appeal for the Moffatt yard who have won this twice recently and sent out Chief Dan George yesterday.
(No bets recommended – slippery is right!)
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