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29th May
Keeping my powder dry for the Vodafone Woodcote Stakes at Epsom Saturday so the following are pre match selections (no bet). Preferences are in bold.
Chepstow 2:30 – betdirect.com maiden stakes
Latin Class is a little too short for one promising run. Perm one from Gaspar Van Wittel, Happy Hacker or Elna Bright.
Leicester 2:20 – ebf ladbrokes.com maiden fillies’ stakes
The last 7 favourites have obliged but with Alexander Nepotism doubtful, Just A Dancer on breeding is not in the same league and is taken on with Romantic Destiny and Rocking.
Redcar 2:10 – european breeders’ fund median auction maiden fillies’ stakes
Sinead Of Aglish has had more than enough chances. Montiboli is the lowest rated on my analysis. Yasinisi and at a price Lady Of Kintyre :o
(Edited by slipperytoad at 9:02 pm on May 28, 2007)
30th May
Another virtual bet on the following races
Brighton (GB) 2:00 – e b f tony bowles lifetime in racing maiden stakes
Romany Princess has this race on my and speed ratings as long as she goes on the ground.. Tempting reverse exacta with New Colossus
Yarmouth (GB) 2:10 – european breeders’ fund novice stakes
Rubirosa beat Montiboli who was turned over yesterday and breeding suggest that Spitfire should improve stepped up to 6f if he goes on the ground. Positive is that the 2nd in his Warwick race went on to win (though on fibresand) next time out.
(Edited by slipperytoad at 7:47 am on May 30, 2007)
31st May
Ayr 2:20 – paradigm european breeders’ fund maiden stakes (class 4)
Atabaas Pride should improve on his first run now he’s stepped up to 6 furlongs, Still cant get it into my thick skull that the market is a good guide to the chances of runners in 2yo races, but my data suggest a serious punt on Livvy Inn so I’ll way in with a few shekels! :biggrin:
2nd June
Epsom 2:30 – vodafone woodcote stakes (listed race) <br>(class 1)
Short listed on ratings are Mount Pleasure, Irish Jig, Declaration Of War, Meeriss and Berbice.
History tells us a number of things about this race. Firstly that the winner can be found toward the head of the market and secondly due to the fact that over 6 furlongs at Epsom there is a downhill, right hand bend shortly after the start this course characteristic has conferred a definite advantage to those drawn low on ground better that good.
If we side with what the market is telling us and if the ground remains good-to-soft, then its a straight shoot out between Irish Jig and Declaration Of War. Irish Jib was a narrow 2nd in a maiden at Leopardstown and the winner (Warsaw Pack) went on land Listed success so he’s my preference of the two. I’ve ignored the chances of Mr Hardy as I don’t think the form from the Brocklesby is that good..
Though his training record at Epsom is poor, if I ignore the market (or compensated by the market) all factors (speed and handicap ratings and draw bias) point to Mount Pleasure but the selection is really dependant on ground conditions near the off.
My idea of an exacta if the ground remains softish is
a. Irish Jig b. Declaration Of War c. Mount Pleasure d. Meeriss
ab/abcd (6 lines)
Haven’t completely forgotten about this thread, but have been mega busy at work and am only just catching up with the ratings.
My thoughts at the moment are that whilst I still believe in the value of speed ratings, it is not always the horse which has run the fastest previously which wins the race.
I know this is obvious, but in races where there is so much which is unknown (i.e. the ability, fitness and temperament of many unraced or lightly-raced types), issues such as trainer form and market moves are also very important considerations.
Additionally, on the speed figure front, my ‘rater’ was built to generate ratings on so-called all-weather surfaces. It takes into account variations in the ‘going’, but these vary much more on turf and at present it is prone to give overrate quick races on very fast going and underrate races on very slow going.
Also, some races are just ‘stronger’ than others, almost regardless of the speed of the contest. Some races look moderate on paper but throw winner after winner, whilst others look the business but are shown in the fullness of time to be pants. I want to take this into account, which is getting away from raw speed figures, but I think will generate more useful ratings.
My thinking is that I will review the times of the races from the meeting, and also set a 4-week review date when I will (briefly) look at the previous and subsequent performances of horses from each race. I will generate ‘adjusted’ figures by a factor of +/- 15%, and this adjustment will be uniform for all runners in that race.
Moving on, and just in brief, there are a couple of 2yo races which interest me today, both at Yarmouth…
2:20 Yarmouth
I have a feeling the field may split here (providing there are not many more non-runners) and this may favour those drawn higher.
I also don’t think (on first glance) that this is a particularly strong event.
Of the newcomers, Sir George is very short and very obvious being a PCH debutante (they’re not all going to be world beaters, are they?!!). More interesting is the Huffer-trained Slugger O’Toole who has attracted plenty of early money and would presumably have been showing something at home.
Jebel Tara has run ok but has a moderate best rating (80.3), which is basically the same as that for the very unappealing Una Auroraborealis (80.6) who has also had two starts.
For me, the best value bet here is KARKY SCHULTZ (top-rated 85.0) who probably will have to improve but has lots of positives, namely a promising debut effort, plenty of softer-ground form among siblings, a high draw and a smaller yard that does well at the track (including with juveniles).
Recommendation<br>KARKY SCHULTZ – £4 win<br>KARKY SCHULTZ + SLUGGER O’TOOLE – 2 x £1 reversed exacta
<br>2:50 Yarmouth
In much less detail (I’m sure I said briefly about fifteen minutes ago), I liked the way REDBACKCAPPUCHINO ran on in a similarly poor event last time, whilst I really don’t like the fact that Distant Noble is up in trip and dropped into this company after just one run. For me the biggest danger is Bill Turner’s Secret Meaning who is capable at this level, ought to stay, and comes from the yard who won this race last year.
Recommendation<br>REDBACKCAPPUCHINO – £3 win<br>REDBACKCAPPUCHINO + SECRET MEANING – 2 x £1.50 r/f/c
Apologies for not keeping in touch. As you’ll see from the pictures on my blog someone decided to give my car a rear end shunt and I’m recovering from the aftermath.. :(
Ascot 2:30 6f – coventry stakes (group 2) (class 1)
Short listed are Pencil Hill, Declaration Of War, Bobs Surprise, Henrythenavigator, Luck Money, Yem Kinn.
The “O’Brienâ€ÂÂ
Hi Slippery, sorry to hear about your accident, but I am pleased to hear you’re recovering. Best of luck.
What do you – and NV – think about Vhujon in the Windsor Castle? I saw it’s Bath run and have heard the beast is by some way the best horse Mr Evans has ever trained. It was 7/1 the last time I looked.
I’m considering having a lumpy bet on this one but two year olds are not really my thing. Trouble is, there’s nothing today amongst the older horses which particularly inspires a bet, (except Inchnadamph in the Ascot stakes).
Cheers
Max
Keep an eye on the earlier races for the draw clues, but if a low draw isn’t a disadvantage, then Vhujon should go very well.
Sorry Max, I haven’t taken an in depth look at the race. So the following comments come with a parental advisory
Did take a quick glance at speed ratings, form book and Vhujon IS reportedly regarded as R Ascot material and well rated.
However Bath is my local track and if there’s one pattern I’ve discovered over the years its that 2yo form from Bath does not translate well to other courses.
I would though be keen to take on Achilles Of Troy. Aiden O’Brien’s trainer record for 2yo’s at Royal Ascot 2002-6 is 13 runners, 1 win
Don’t want to put you off though so if you fancy it why not! :biggrin:
Cheers lads. :biggrin:
Not looking too promising for the 1 draw, is it? We shall see…
Sorry Max – still got loads of work stuff going on at the mo.
For the record, Vhujon recorded a high rating but didn’t look to offer any particular great value as the absence raised several questions. That said, he ran well, was beaten less than 3 lengths, and was probably done no favours by the draw. He is still interesting for the future…
Today’s 4:55 (Queen Mary Stakes) is assessed as follows…
102.6 > STARLIT SANDS<br>100.4 > KYLAYNE<br>100 > BASTAKIYA<br>98.7 > REGAL STEP<br>96.1 > TIA MIA<br>96 > MONAAZALAH<br>95.6 > CRISTAL CLEAR<br>95.6 > LADY AVENGER<br>95.6 > TUSCAN EVENING<br>94.7 > THE LOAN EXPRESS<br>94.4 > SWEEPSTAKE<br>93.8 > LITTLEMISSSUNSHINE<br>93.4 > ELLETELLE<br>92.4 > CAKE<br>91.5 > FANATICAL<br>91.3 > POLAR CIRCLE<br>89.5 > PIECE OF MY HEART<br>84.2 > PERFECT PAULA<br>79.4 > EVENSTORM<br>76.3 > FRANCESCA D’GORGIO
I will probably play the top four rated in little exactas, possibly with a little each-way on Kylayne at a big price. The draw is a concern for that one and Regal Step, whilst Bastakiya has yet to race on turf. Starlit Sands looks solid.
Sweepstake is potentially a place lay, as this race is competitive enough and she has yet to beat anything I think is really good, or post a fast time.
Ascot 4:55 5f – queen mary stakes (group 2) (fillies) (class 1)
Short listed<br>Tia Mia, Lady Avenger, Monaazalah, Polar Circle, Starlit Sands
It looked like the higher draws had the advantage in all sprint events at Ascot yesterday. If the bias continues today, berthed in stall 1 Lady Avenger has it all to do.
Of those that remain my preference is for Polar Circle who is noted as a filly that will improve and reportedly Royal Ascot material.
I am also keen to back the Sir Mark Prescott’s runner Starlit Sands who also figures highly on my ratings.
Whenever possible I try to ignore trainers, but this particular trainer knows the time of day. I was going to dismiss her chances based on her run at Catterick however I’ve taken the opposite logic and feel that this race has been part of the master plan for Starlit Sands. <br>
If the ground remains quick, I can see FRANCESCA D’GORGIO going well. She was beaten miles behind Regal Step at Nottingham, but it’s interesting that the same connections had a similar one in Sander Camillo last year who ran poorly 1st time out when fancied, and then won at this meeting.
Polar Circle in the Queen Mary looks a very good bet indeed. Her trainer earmarked her a QM horse a few months ago and ran in a race that has a good record in recent years. OK so this years renewal wasn’t the strongest but, all she could do was win and at odds of 8/1, she looks a good bet.
Ascot 2:30 5f – norfolk stakes (group 2) (class 1)
The field has been decimated since the declarations list I looked at earlier in the week. Short listed are:
Winker Watson, Warsaw, Strike The Deal, Spirit Of Sharjah, Roker Park,
Typically this race goes to those at the head of the market and Winker Watson looks solid as he should improve after his debut run. However with only two winning favourites in the last few years I’m going to take him on.
Of those on the shortlist I like the look of Spirit Of Sharjah at a prices and one noted as Royal Ascot material (like some my selections mentioned by yours truly this week  :angry: ).
The form of Warsaw win at the Curragh was franked by The Loan Express earlier this week when 3rd in the Queen Mary (Loan Express was 2nd behind Warsaw at the Curragh) but his price is a bit skinny.
At bigger prices breeding suggest that Strike The Deal and Roker Park should run well hence the following virtual exacta (assuming that Winker Watson grabs 3rd or is unplaced and leaving out the obvious perm of the next two in the market)
a. Warsaw b. Spirit Of Sharjah c. Strike The Deal d. Roker Park
ab/cd  4 lines
Spirit Of Sharjah (win) <br>Strike The Deal (place)<br>
I felt that Spirit of Sharjah was given an awful lot to do today, Slippery.
And while the assembled racing press were drooling over Chapple Hyam’s animal, I was wondering what might have been had the jockeys (and the draws) been reversed.
Good pick.  I don’t suppose you guys have an opinion on Clive Brittains filly tomorrow Cute. in the Albany. I was at Nottingham when it ran and is in my notebook as a potentially top quality animal.
(Edited by Maxilon 5 at 10:12 pm on June 21, 2007)
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