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2:30 Windsor
90.8 – Ten Down<br>89.3 – Sauze D’Oulx<br>73.8 – Higgy’s Boy
The top two rated horses showed decent form on their debuts and scored high enough ratings to think they will have a big say in this contest.
Ten Down looked to know more about the game than Sauze D’Oulx, so for me there is every chance that the Millman horse could put in a more professional performance this time and finish in front of Ten Down.
Certainly on breeding and initial racecourse performance, Ten Down looks more like an out-and-out sprinter. Whilst a sharpish 5 furlongs like this should suit, generally I feel that these types take a few races and a bit of time to strengthen up enough to get home properly, so Sauze D’Oulx makes more appeal at a bigger price here and I’ll have a small win bet on that one.
Of the two most touted unraced runners, Cracking is being supported more than Barraland, so might go well but will have to be decent to take this. None of the remainder jump off the page, although Never Sold Out might be one to keep a close eye on, with plenty of his dam’s siblings showing good early form.
At last a winner and 10/1 seemed very generous.
Early signs are promising for the use of these ratings as guidance at least and I will keep them throughout the year.
As for today, two medium-sized fields of unraced 2yos (now that Fast Feet doesn’t go) so nothing in terms of figures.
For the record, I think the Warwick race is potentially a bit better than the Nottingham one, but I can’t find anything really interesting from a backing perspective in either contest, and have gone a bit scattergun for placepot purposes. (Ratings should be interesting afterwards though) ;)
2:35 Newmarket
99.3 – Nikindi
This is the first UK 2yo race above Class 4, and as such might attract some quite useful sorts.
Now that Baytown Blaze doesn’t go, Nikindi is the only raced runner, and scored a decent rating when taking a Folkestone maiden.
That race is working out well, producing 3 seconds and 1 win from the four subsequent runs of participants so far. In each case, the runners have gone on to achieve higher ratings which is a further reasonable indication that the Folkestone race was pretty good.
Nikindi is likely to run very well and might be up to winning this. Of the remainder, Dark Angel (well backed)and Orpen’s Art (very weak) look the part on paper and Major Eazy is also being well supported.
My feeling is that Nikindi is the most likely individual winner but there are too many potentially useful unknowns here. Our top-rated will almost certainly run well but might get turned over by something.
<br>2:45 Beverley
92.4 – Artdeal<br>81.1 – Runswick Bay<br>79.1 – Ocean Transit (64.8 > 79.1)<br>59.6 – Bank On Bertie (54.4 > 59.6)<br>58.3 – Blazing Bullet
Mister Hardy upheld the Brocklesby form quite nicely, but I am still unconvinced by the strength of that contest. Today’s Beverley maiden should help determine things a little more regarding that as the Brocklesby fifth Runswick Bay disputes favouritism with Artdeal.
Artdeal registered a significantly higher rating when finishing 2nd at Kempton and providing the switch to turf is no problem (shouldn’t be), I expect Artdeal to finish in front of Runswick Bay today.
Runswick Bay raced on the generally unfavoured side at Newcastle and seemed to do well, especially since a perusal of this one’s breeding does not suggest an obviously sharp 2yo. However, Turn And River ran a similarly promising race in the Brocklesby just behind in sixth, and showed very little (if any) improvement when making little impression at Leicester last week.
We are faced with the problem of a big unexposed field, and there are almost certainly a few talented animals in opposition today, who may or may not be ready to compete.
As such, similar comments to that for Nikindi apply, whereby Artdeal seems to have the best chance of winning but could well get turned over by something useful.
Recommendation(ish) : A smallish each-way double on Nikindi and Artdeal if something around 2/1 can be obtained on each.
(Edited by non vintage at 2:09 pm on April 18, 2007)
If anyone is interested, I have made the spreadsheet available via the following site…
(cruddy broken site removed – scroll down!)
You can’t miss it – there is only one file.
It includes all GB 2yo races this season, plus ratings for the first two home in Irish 2yo races…<br>
(Edited by non vintage at 8:47 pm on April 23, 2007)
Top Stuff NV :cool: been really busy with work stuff but should be able to make use of this info soon.. cheers..
google groups appears to be playing silly buggers. i can’t delete or upload or update anything which is no good for anyone!
i’ll try and find somewhere else to post the file!!!
slippery,
the ratings are mine, although the ‘TS’ column in green refers to the topspeed rating for comparison.
(also the two columns at the end in grey are a guideline i use to assess the distance i think the horse would be most effective at)
nv
(Edited by non vintage at 10:08 am on April 24, 2007)
Bit of a lull in proceedings at the moment. There is only one 2yo race on Wednesday (none on Tuesday), and it’s a cracker!!!
2:10 Catterick
No Point – 86.4<br>Miss Willoughby – 78.7 > 72.5<br>Miss Tilen – 77.1<br>Amazing Day – 73.5<br>O’Casey – 59.4
The race No Point won was a real shocker, and one where I think my ratings might overstate the abilities of the competitors. They certainly look on the generous side given Portway Lane’s apparent subsequent regression, and I would be looking to take No Point on here at likely odds.
Amazing Day didn’t show much first time out in a similar kind of race, finishing behind Miss Willoughby who didn’t do much for the form a few days ago. Neither appeal greatly, whilst O’Casey ran with no promise first time up and looks an unlikely winner even down here.
So that leaves two. Miss Tilen had an unfortunate experience first time out in the Brocklesby, and then hinted at a smidgeon of ability last time albeit finishing well beaten in a reasonable race. If she finds any improvement at all, I think she’ll go mighty close here.
The main danger may well be the newcomer My Sheila’s Dream, who is bred for cheap speed and won’t need to be very good at all to beat most of these.
Unfortunately, both are given favourable mentions in the RP Spotlight write up, so I’ll minimise stakes and play a £2 reversed exacta on Miss Tilen & My Sheila’s Dream and hope for a poor run from No Point…
<br>
(Edited by non vintage at 12:07 am on April 25, 2007)
All that yesterday for a return equivalent to a little over 7/4. Still a winner, but to think they opened 3/1 & 4/1!!! Anyway…
2:20 Beverley
Redbrick Girl – 79.7 > 89.2<br>Shepherds Warning – 80.6 > 82.2<br>Echostar – 78.3<br>Rye Beau – 70.6<br>Limestone – 45.7<br>Stevie Smurnoff – 38.5
An average looking claimer – not exactly an exciting prospect but certainly not the worst juvenile race we’ve seen this year.
From the ratings, I think it would be asking a lot of Limestone, Stevie Smurnoff or even Rye Beau to improve enough to get competitive here.
Redbrick Girl has recorded the best rated run, and the Ryan stable has an excellent track record including a 24% 2yo hit-rate. That said, she has not shaped like she gets home well in sprints at the moment, and I expect this stiff course could find her out. A low draw (3) is also of no help.
Shepherds Warning didn’t show any improvement between her first two runs, but has recorded similar figures each time and was claimed for £6k last time. She will stay the trip here and should go close, although again, being drawn 2 is less than ideal.
Echostar has only had one run when finishing a place behind Redbrick Girl. On similar (slightly worse) terms, she should theoretically be held, but I quite like her. Redbrick Girl had the advantage of a previous start, whilst Echostar was staying on ok once getting organised and has more potential for improvement. She is also drawn better (6).
Of the others, Smokeyourpipe was supported early and gets a favourable Spotlight mention. My suspicion is that this is mostly due to the fact that the Spearing yard sent out My Sheilas Dream to win yesterday. For me, this race is clearly stronger and Smokeyourpipe (whilst obviously having some kind of chance) will have to be quite useful to take this first time up.
Recommendation<br>ECHOSTAR can probably improve a little on her debut and appeals here as a possible value option. Redbrick Girl and Shepherds Warning should both go well but there are reasons to think both are vulnerable.
ECHOSTAR – £5 win
4 non-runners (including the quite fancied Spearing runner) and Echostar still went off at 9/2 and got up in the closing stages. Not complaining mind…
"Nice!" :cool:
I’ll stick comments on the later races later, but for now…
2:20 Leicester
Legendary Guest – 95.2<br>Gaitskell – 91.9<br>Ben – 86.9 > 91.7<br>Regal Rhythm – 87.7<br>Mystickhill – 78.0 > 85.5 > 81.2<br>Dhaka Dazzle – 79.1<br>Korcula – 67.5
Basically, Legendary Guest ran really well first time up and has a clear edge on these in terms of form. However, several of his rivals have shown distinct promise, and he is no value in my opinion at serious odds-on.
Of the competition, Gaitskell ran a good race from a stable not usually associated with decent 2yos, and Regal Rhythm also showed distinct promise in a perfectly reasonable looking race. Ben has had two runs, running consistently but without looking like a horse about to take one of these and possibly hinting at stamina limitations.
For me, the form shown by those to have already raced would make this a big ask for anything unraced to get involved at the sharp end, and the early trading supports this.
Recommendation<br>Whilst acknowledging Legendary Guest as the most likely winner, I’m more interested at likely prices in Regal Rhythm, with Meehan horses tending to improve for their debuts and this one shaping as if the experience would be very handy.
REGAL RHYTHM – £3 win<br>REGAL RHYTHM + LEGENDARY GUEST – 2 x £2 reversed exactas<br>REGAL RHYTHM + GAITSKELL – 2 x 50p reveresed forecast
No luck yesterday – a terrible analysis all round for which I can only apologise! Seemed a bit of a strange race and I’m not sure racing up the middle was much good for Regal Rhythm or the favourite, but the form might turn out to be quite good.
2:10 Brighton
Concertmaster – 88.5 > 93.7<br>Rio Taffeta – 84.4 > 92.7 > 86.9<br>Swindon Town Flyer – 86.5<br>Cracking – 78.0<br>Lord Deevert – 74.8 > 68.3
Concertmaster has the best rating here, but doesn’t seem to do anything in a hurry and this wouldn’t look to be an ideal track for him. He didn’t show a great deal of improvement between his two runs and might need a bit longer both in terms of trip and distance, so doesn’t look good value.
My feeling is that Rio Taffeta has been consistent but taken ages to pick up in each race so far and looks like needing a bit further than 5f (even with the extra 59yds). He looks a similar type in this respect to Concertmaster, but on my figures that one might be a slightly better performer. Channon’s good record here and in this race cannot be ignored, but this doesn’t look an ideal track or race for a jockey potentially unfamiliar with UK racing.
Lord Deevert looks outclassed, but is likely to blast out from the front, probably with Cracking for company.
Cracking is the only one of these holding late-season sales race entries and was pretty well supported first time out – I can see him going on a couple of furlongs out and being quite hard to catch.
Finally, Swindon Town Flyer is unexposed and hinted at better to come on his debut when just behind Concertmaster. For me, there is every chance that he will reverse that form here and be the one to challenge Cracking close home, with Rio Taffeta and Concertmaster closing but not getting there in time.
Recommendation<br>I’ll chance that there aren’t too many Swindon Town supporters in attendance today and that people tend to go with the more attractive form figures of Concertmaster and Rio Taffeta.
SWINDON TOWN FLYER + CRACKING – 2 x £2.50 reversed exactas<br>
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