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The 2% Challenge

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  • #1796
    cormack15cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8783

    Following on from a thread in the Horse racing section of the forum I’m going to have a go at increasing a £100 bank by 2% each Saturday of 2007.

    I’ll use this thread to keep a note of progress and for you guys/girls to let me know how you think I should accomplish it.

    #62132
    Sailing Shoes
    Member
    • Total Posts 368

    What are your initial thoughts Cormy?

    Mine would be trading on horses likely to shorten or lengthen in the market.

    #62133
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    If you only want to win 2% you should be laying I reckon.

    #62135
    empty walletempty wallet
    Member
    • Total Posts 1631

    Cormack

    Don’t know your strategy, but if your Trading, forget looking at the formbook

    use the money ebb and flow and more importantly  knowledge of the general betting public

    (Edited by empty wallet at 7:14 am on Dec. 30, 2006)

    #62136
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    What happens when you lose? Do you start chasing the projected 2% rise?

    Also if you’re going to back horses are you going to use a staking plan or intuition? Developing a staking plan for this would probably be a task in itself..

    #62138
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    what about place betting on heavily backed horses?

    #62139
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Good idea FSL .. go for those trading at 1.2 or shorter and use a staking plan.

    .. the longshot/favourite bias should work at that level.

    #62140
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    To make this work I think you need to look beyond horse racing otherwise you’ll never find enough suitable bets to make this work. Backing horses at that price if you have two losers in a row it’ll take some time to get back up to speed providing you don;t have another loser in the interim. I’d be inclined to look at Tennis and sports where there are only two outcomes where there is no appeal in any racing markets.

    #62142
    cormack15cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8783

    OK, d-day tomorrow!

    I plan to deposit 100 pounds  in one of my betfair accounts tonight and will use this for the duration of theis experiment. I’ll post details each Saturday of bets made and progress.

    I’ll be adopting a variety of approaches but generally will be backing/laying short priced horses with a view to trading price fluctuations and in-running.

    I’ll also be looking to take/trade positions on other non-racing events where there is a history of big price fluctuations.

    So – target for end of play tomorrow = 102 pounds!

    #62143
    cormack15cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8783

    Day 1 –

    13 bets placed.

    12 of these bets involved backing and laying the same horses. Of these only one, Silverburn, yielded a profit (would have been even more if he had lost!). Each of the other 4 horses involved (Harmony Brig, Bungie, Sri Diamond and Pilca) ended up break even when they either won or lost, when the alternative outcome would have given a profit.

    The key success of the day came when laying Kings Signal in running. Commentator kept talking it up (‘King’s Signal still running on well’) when it looked apparent to me that it was 33/1 to get there so laid it at 11 (just before it started to creep into it!)

    So, at the end of day 1 a profit of 2.37 (just beating my target of 2%) and a satisfactory start!

    C/fwd to next Saturday 102.37

    #62145
    rolandroland
    Member
    • Total Posts 302

    WD corm. <br>if per chance you had achieved your 2% on 1st bet/trade is that it for the day?

    #62147
    cormack15cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8783

    Not necessarily Roland. Certainly not after 1st trade. You would need >2% days to offset the losing days I guess.

    #62148
    cormack15cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8783

    Not so good today I’m afraid.

    Bad start when laying Gungado. I felt he had to be taken on at that price and was confident that if he blundered and/or Il Duce ran reasonably well then I’d be able to back at longer odds in running or even, if he fell, scoop the lot. Well, he did blunder but it was a two horse race at the time and he had already shortened to 1.16 or so and was well in command. Il Duce ran a stinker and I never had a sniff of being able to trade. Hard start to the day, 8.20 down.

    I then got my head down and ground away all afternoon and by the time the last of the jumping was over I’d clawed back to a 1.08 loss on the day. Bad luck in the last race I played when I spotted Keltic Bard available to lay at 6.2 when out the back and not looking that interested. I had him marked as one to keep an eye on for signs of unwillingness and immediately went to trade. Unfortunately the bet took an age to ‘process’ (why is that?) and by the time it did  he’d made a huge blunder and any chance of laying at that price was long gone. That would have let me hit my target. Part of the perils I guess and you need to take these incidents on the chin, painful as they are.

    Still, encouraging that I managed to claw back after being hit for six first race. I’ve been working on my ‘in-running’ plays and had a couple of trades today which were well on my side if the horses concerned had won and I’ll hook one or two of these soon and hopefully get the balance back. Don’t want many more Gungadus though!

    After day 2 bank now stands at 101.29

    #62149
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    I wouldn’t ever want to back any Celtic Bards either! Whoever took the 6.2 must be laughing all the way to the bank! Unlucky Corm but always next week. What is your aim for next week then – 5.2%?

    #62150
    cormack15cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8783

    Something like that FSL – I’ll work it out later. There will clearly be ups and downs.<br>I’m finding this quite interesting as it is a completely different approach to my usual punting, where I enjoy large swings. I’m aiming here for squeezing small profits from each trade. The worry I have is that all the small trades which go right will be offset periodically by a Gunghadu type trade.

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