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Back to it today but only a meagre £2.59 profit.
Bank = £142.73<br>Target = 124.32
Update from Saturday –
Things still going well. Yet another profit, that’s a profit every week so far. Maybe I should inject some capital and up the ante?
Profit on day £3.31<br>Bank now £146.04<br>Target £126.80<br>
Back on the case today and a good day. I’ve upped my stakes a little as the bank seems pretty secure and, with losing trades a rarity thus far, I think I can up it a bit.
I’ve also developed my own MO which is :-
Look at the race and identify horse(s) likely to run well and shorten in running.<br>From these (usually two or three) judge which price seems most ‘wrong’ <br>Back it.<br>Then lay in running to a pre-determined profit figure.
Because you’re backing first, risk is lower and I seem to be better at judging horses which will run well rather than highlighting those that won’t.
Anyway it’s working Ok so far and I’m getting more confident (which is a worry in itself!).
An interesting by product is that I’m selecting lots more winners than I used to do when simply backing them to win conventionally (i.e. not trading). I think it’s a psychological thing. I’m much more detached in my selection process than I am when backing conventionally, I guess because I’m not worried if teh horse wins or not, just whether I can nick a point or two on the price along the way. Also I’m much less exhuastive in my selection method, taking a view on the ‘shape’ of the race and prices rather than delving into the minute detail of the form book that used to preoccupy me.
For example the horses I traded today (all profitable, prices at sp) were :-
Nobelix Unp<br>Nawow 1st 5/1 <br>Kavachi Unp<br>Saddlers Cove 1st 7/1<br>Munaddam 1st 11/2<br>Aqaleem 1st 12/1<br>Menelaus 2nd 5/1<br>Ned Ludd 2nd 8/1
The selections from two weeks ago (didn’t trade last week) were :-
Insurgent 2nd 5/1<br>Jeremy 1st 2/1<br>Scotmail Too Unp<br>River City Unp<br>(I also traded about half the field including the winner in the Betfred Gold Cup on that day)
The previous week I had one winner (Pinpoint 8/1) from 7 traded horses).
All of which makes me wonder whether I should simply be backing these rather than trading them?
Anyway – scores to date
Profit today £9.15<br>Bank now £155.19<br>Target £129.33
Update on yesterday – which also highlights some of the potential perils of exchange betting.
I tried to back a horse, submitted the bet and it (the bet) then vanished into the ether. It didn’t appear on my ‘Place Bets’ screen nor on my ‘My Bets’ screen and nothing showed up to show that the bet had been submitted, matched or otherwise. I waited around, refreshed the screen several times and the prices updated but still no sign of my bet. I assumed, wrongly as it turns out, that it hadn’t been submitted.
Alas on checking my account last night, lo and behold, it had been submitted, had been matched and had duly, inevitably, lost.
Betfair were unsympathetic to my resulting email communications so BEWARE!
If it had been the other way around (i.e. if I’d laid it and it had won and I hadn’t been able to trade it back) then my 2% challenge bank would have been zapped.
Part of the costs/risks of these trading shennanigans I suppose but worrying how betfair wash their hands of it so readily.
So, in summary, a fiver to come off the bank which now reads –
Bank £150.19<br>Target £129.33
(btw – anyone else had similar and, perhaps, more expensive problems of this nature?)
Back on Saturday and no problems with bets getting lost in cyberspace.
Another lesson learnt as I was trying to follow the FA Cup Final, do some normal, serious betting while, at the same time, trying to work on this challenge. The FA Cup was one bridge too far as I felt out of control.
Still managed a megre profit on the challenge though to keep the 100% record of winning every week. A small profit though as Gold Option let me down. Backed at 14.5 it then drifted dramatically (out to 19.5) making a pre-race trade impossible but I was confident of getting matched in-running, all being well. <br>The horse started well and was going pretty well for the first 6 furlongs or so. However I only managed to lay a portion of my bet back and, consequently, took a small loss on the race, my only losing trading position all day, although I didn’t have a lot of trades (Fa Cup Final again!).
Standing now -<br>Profit on day £1.31 <br>Bank £151.50<br>Target £131.91
(Profit on my initial investment now over 50% – try getting that at the bank/building society!)<br>
Top Stuff Cormack.. Great thread this.
If it was 10k you were playing with you’d be laughing!!!
Saturday 26th –
Good day and another profit, small but profit nonetheless.
Profit on day £3.39<br>Bank now £154.89<br>Target £134.01
(Pity my non-2% challenge betting wasn’t going as well though – today will be forever known as Black Sunday in the Cormack household – still, luckily, the ‘free money’ horse aka Authorised has arrived just in the nick of time!!!)
Glad to see you sticking with this idea since we discussed it way back in December. If you had been doing this every day since 1st January you may be thinking of going full time!
Indeed Wallace! Unfortunately life gets in the way. today, for example, instead of trading merrily away all afternoon I found myself on my hands and knees chipping glue off a floor. I’ll never turn pro at this rate!
However, next weekend, all being well, I plan to try out that software you mentioned to see how that can be employed to rev up the 2% challenge.<br>
I’m afraid that a variety of factors have led to the 2% challenge going by the by for the time being.
Results were positive enough to give some credence to the view that 2% is a reasonable target and fairly readily achievable given some hard work. However, as stakes increased it would become more difficult.
I do also suspect that, if you were trading day in day out, after several months screen watching it’d become a grinding chore!
Do you mean that it will stick your kids eyelids together if you leave them in the room with it unsupervised?
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