[SwallowCottage]

I have read Bruce Millington’s article and thought it was only average and was too pessimistic – he does make a good point about the england goalkeeper situation though and one of the reasons that England have done better than expected in the past is because of our very good goalkeepers ( Banks, Shilton etc ).

Where are all these english people who think that england are going to win the WC every time they qualify for it I have only met a few.

Perhaps it’s because I live in a part of england which has never had a successful soccer team so we are used to failure but the vast majority of soccer fans that I know want England to win but actually think that Argentina, Brazil, Germany or Spain will win the WC every time it is played.

I realise the english media hype up England’s WC chances because it’s good business but as far as I am concerned it’s a myth that most english supporters expect England to win the WC every four years as I know very few who really think this way.

Don’t get sucked into believing everything you read in the papers and hear on tv !!

[SwallowCottage]

The team that I support are Plymouth argyle so I would also be quids in if I had bet against them as a consolation but it is something that I would never do. There are certain teams that I hate ( I think that Pompete can guess the name of one of them ) and I might bet on them to win or lay the opposing team not to win if it was not an important game but that’s all.

I would never bet on a team I disliked to win the league or a Cup competition as this would mean that I would be wanting them to be successful for quite a long period which would be against my instincts.

I remember there was somebody on this forum who bet on his team to be relegated as a consolation so each to their own I suppose.

[SwallowCottage]

Forget the four furlong sprint and I don’t think that the idea to expand a programme for older horses to encourage flat racing stars to stay in training would work – too much money to be made elsewhere at stud etc.

His other ideas make a lot of sense in my opinion especially number 1 about too many fixtures and number 5 about running more big races on a sunday when there is less competition from other sports regarding media attention.

He’s also right about having fewer meetings on major flat days – why does racing have so many other cards on these special occasions including aw meetings – not that I’m against the aw but there are times when it should not take place.

However as paulostermeyer has already stated, it will be an uphill struggle for any of these ideas to take place and racing’s share of betting shop turnover will continue to fall because it is becoming boring compared to other sports which punters like to bet on.

[SwallowCottage]

I’d join in Nathan

[SwallowCottage]

I also want to say well done to Aaronizneez and thank Nathan for organising this competition – been enjoyable and made me take more interest than normal in cricket.

[SwallowCottage]

Only chance I have of winning the competition is to go for the unexpected –

Draw 200
PP – Strauss

[SwallowCottage]

At the risk of swamping TRF with little-needed negativity, I am somewhat bemused by this summers’ round of “let’s get people interested in racing” stunts.

Racing survives by dint of it’s genuine followers, the overwhelming majority of which bet on the game. In effect, those who bet more or less fund the show (don’t bite, owners). The challenge for racing, therefore, is primarily to refresh this constituency with new blood all the time. I am of the belief that this will happen naturally and at (probably) a similar level to the past.

No amount of Shergar Cups, Ladies’ nights and post-racing concerts will increase that number.

It may leave the uninitiated enjoying the evening, enjoying the racecourse, hell, even enjoying a race and a bet or two. But only as an alternative night out, the chances of converting them to lifetime followers (and punters!) is basically nil. That’s not to say that a well-run attraction may prove beneficial to racecourse attendance and the general ambience of a day/evening at the races. Or not, depending on your view.

There are plenty of ways to fill up Britain’s racecourses. Following the free-entry policy set by Towcester would do the trick. But that’s not the same thing as getting people into a lifetime interest in racing. I don’t think there’s any way this can be done. What makes a football fan? Cricket nut? Rugby waller? They’re just born like it or at most influenced with parental/sibling encouragement. Or do we really think it it was the appearance of the brass band on the pitch at half-time or Bjorn Again performing in the tea interval?

Mike

Lots of common sense in the above post but I do know somebody who only attended his first race meeting because he wanted to see the pop group performing afterwards. His racing friend persuaded him to have a bet for a bit of fun and he picked five winners out of six races ( he obviously did not follow my tips ) and has been hooked on horse racing since. So these special non racing attractions can sometimes benefit racing but it is probably happens rarely.

The majority of non gamblers think horse racing is boring to watch. Horse racing exists in it’s present form because it attracts gamblers. It needs gamblers to survive. I do not know anybody who takes any interest in flat racing who does not bet. I know a few who follow the jumps without gambling but they are probably a minority.

One of the reasons that horse racing in HK thrives is because of the gambling mentality of the people there and if horse racing is to be continue successfully in the UK then I think it needs to ensure that it’s product is attractive to the gamblers who will keep it going – this means better quality racing, less race meetings ( in my opinion – I know others disagree ) and proper integrity and for horse racing to not be seen as ‘ a mugs game because it’s all a fiddle ‘ which a lot of my non gambling colleagues view it to be.

I don’t share some people’s optimism that new followers to racing will happen naturally as I think the next generation of gamblers will be attracted more to other types of sports gambling ( especially soccer ) and horse racing may struggle to keep going in it’s present form.

[SwallowCottage]

Ah, so you mean they actually catch the cheats and ban them. So that makes it an event that can’t be taken seriously any more?

Yes in my opinion which is why I included it. I didn’t expect to have to explain this…..a lot of tour de france cyclists have been banned because they are cheating by taking drugs etc – footballers and other sports players ( including golfers now ) are drug tested regularly but the results for the vast majority are negative and they are therefore not cheating by taking drugs.

I don’t agree that other types of cheating on a regular basis is acceptable but as the title of the thread asked for 3 sporting events then 3 sporting events is the total that I gave.

[SwallowCottage]

Tour De France – drug problems and disqualifications mean that few take this seriously anymore.

Davis Cup – enjoy tennis a lot but I think that team events do not work at this type of sport. Existing format is boring anyway.

Arc De Triomphe – over-hyped, over-rated and more atmosphere at a Newton Abbot bank holiday meeting.

[SwallowCottage]

In NZ the jump horses have to pass a 2 part jumping ticket before they can race in public where the stipes watch it school, then watch it in a trial race and decide whether to give it a ticket.

Perhaps something similar should be done here considering the number of horses that go straight from the flat to the jumps.

Excuse my ignorance but who are the stipes?

[SwallowCottage]

Despite that, someone had the brilliant idea of deliberately poisoning all of Ms Shally’s horses which led to three of them dying excruciatingly painful deaths. One of those was Tir N Nog, who was a three time winner.

What is so brilliant about deliberately killing horses

In reply to the question asked by AP Racing, I would expect it to take at least 10 days and probably longer for a horse to be schooled properly in order to make it as safe as possible for the jockey and the other horses.
Perhaps their should be a rule that horses need to be schooled for a certain minimum number of hours before being allowed to jump hurdles/fences but I realise it would probably be impossible to enforce.

[SwallowCottage]

Form study ( including draw effect, trainer form, going, course form etc etc ) is certainly worth it but it obviously depends on how good a punter is at interpreting the form which makes the difference in the long term.

If a punter is disciplined and knows how to read form correctly then the punter will be successful – other’s won’t. It’s as simple as that.

[SwallowCottage]

The expression of Lies,damned lies and statistics comes to mind Smile

The reason for the 65.80% increase in levy yield since 2000 is partly due to the abolition of the 9% betting tax and not because of the increase in the number of races run

Read my last post.

Another reason for the increase is because sports betting has become much more popular in the last decade ( especially on soccer, golf and tennis ) so horse racing has therefore obtained it’s fair share of this popularity – whether the increase in the number of fixtures has helped or hindered it is questionable.

Dont know what point your trying to make?

I think that the comparision with racing in HK is misleading as the Chinese are renowned for betting on anything that moves and don’t care about the class of race.

An utterly clueless post regarding racing in Hong Kong.

I did read your last post – it makes no difference to the misleading statistics you posted which suggested that the increase in levy was due solely to the increase in fixtures which is not true.

The point I am trying to make is that the increase in fixtures has not necessarily been the reason for the increased levy over the past decade.

I know people from HK and it’s the mentality of the Chinese who bet in HK on the horse racing which is relevant – it’s not the type of horse racing. It seems that you do not realise this and my previous post is anything but clueless.

[SwallowCottage]

Here’s a few figures to ponder while I wait for the next Class E at Sandown

Flat turf racing UK

Year 2000: % of Class C races and above 643-2316 = 27.77%
Year 2008: % of Class C races and above 664-2660 = 24.96%

A small drop but hardly calamitous is it. About 1 Class C and above race less per week than 9 years ago.

Year 2000: % of individual horses who ran a RPR of 93 or above 534-8263 = 6.4%
Year 2008: % of individual horses who ran a RPR of 93 or above 618-9874 = 6.3%

The number of horses running to a Class C level and above is almost identical.

Total races run Year 2000 = 4775 – Levy yield 61.9 million
Total races run Year 2008 = 6255 – Levy yield 100 million (ex highroller money)

A 31% increase in fixtures matched by a 65.8% increase in levy yield. CLEARLY the demand has been there.

% of Levy Yield contributed by "betting shop fodder" 2008 =

67.58%

Hong Kong Racing has per race more money gambled on it than any where else on Earth.

% of current 120+ rated horses in Hong Kong compared to overall racehorse population there = 0.16%

% of current 90+ rated horses in Hong Kong compared to overall racehorse population there = 11.8%

% of current 65 and below rated horses in Hong Kong compared to overall racehorse population there =

62.34%

Well over 50% of all Hong Kong horses are Selling level, doesn’t stop them gambling on it though….why?

Superb product

that’s why.

The expression of Lies,damned lies and statistics comes to mind

The reason for the 65.80% increase in levy yield since 2000 is partly due to the abolition of the 9% betting tax and not because of the increase in the number of races run. Another reason for the increase is because sports betting has become much more popular in the last decade ( especially on soccer, golf and tennis ) so horse racing has therefore obtained it’s fair share of this popularity – whether the increase in the number of fixtures has helped or hindered it is questionable.

I think that the comparision with racing in HK is misleading as the Chinese are renowned for betting on anything that moves and don’t care about the class of race.

[SwallowCottage]

For the first time in many years, I have not had a bet on a horse race for at least 6 weeks. There is only one reason for this – I am totally bored of it. There is too much racing and the situation gets worse in the summer and it makes me lose interest in it.

I also bet seriously on soccer and golf and these sports have days off and sometimes weeks off which leaves me keen for their return but I never get this feeling with horse racing anymore because it is non stop all year long.

I never thought I would say this but I am starting to enjoy the AW winter flat season more than the summer flat season because there are only about 2 meetings each day and it is easier to follow the form etc.

Somebody said that punters only have so much money to bet with – I have become bored of racing this summer so I bet on other sports instead and by the look of my near empty local Coral betting shop recently, I think others do the same.

[SwallowCottage]

Australia 130
Draw 70

PP – S.M. Katich ( res – Ponting )

[SwallowCottage]

I like to have a few ante post bets on the soccer so here are my thoughts –

Bets from the heart –

Premiership –

Tottenham

are the team I support in this league and I do not expect them to get into the top four. No value in the hcap market either in my opinion so I’ll bet on them in the Cup competitions if their odds are reasonable.

Championship –

Plymouth Argyle

are the Devon team that I have supported for many years. They just escaped relegation last season and a new consortium have taken over and argyle have a new chairman. The new owners do not have as much money as some of the other Championship clubs but I expect argyle to do better than the bookies predict. Their manager Paul Sturrock made some bad signings last season but should have learnt from the experience and needs to as he will probably be sacked if Argyle struggle early in the season. He is very good at getting the best out of his players and knows how to motivate them. He is not afraid to drop bigger names if they are not playing well or not trying hard enough. I do not expect them to get promoted but I think they are worth a bet in the

Hcap market

with a 28 pt start.

Other bets –

Premiership – I like to bet on

hcaps

in the the ante post soccer market and last year I backed Hull who were looking good at one stage but faded. This season I am going for

Burnley

with a 50 pt start as I think they may do better than expected and have a good manager and some entertaining skilful players – excellent team spirit will also help.

Championship – WBA may not so as well as some think imo and I do not rate Southgate as a manager and bet on Boro to be relegated from the Premiership……unfortunately it was 2 seasons ago and not last season Newcastle are not much value but will make this league interesting. I do not like Roy Keane but he knows how to get the best out of soccer players and

Ipswich

look decent each way value at 12/1.

League One – Leeds are favourites again One of the relegated teams from the Championship could bounce back – Charlton have the best chance in my opinion.

Millwall

are not a popular team but they played some good soccer last season and nearly got promoted via the play offs so they are my each way bet at 18/1.

League Two – No surprise to see Notts Co as favs at 11/2 as money talks in soccer but the value has gone so I’ll go with

Bournemouth

at 16/1 who did well last season considering the points penalty that they had to suffer.

Good luck and if this thread is brought back up at the end of the season then everybody will probably be laughing at how my selections performed

[Author]

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