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Where’s Danny is interesting alright as he didn’t get knocked about. The form of the race is worrying tho. It doesn’t look to be working out great. Fibril might tell us more tomorrow.
Hi,
I like to do my own pace analysis, this year is the first year I’ve been making a note of it. I wouldn’t say it has a bearing on my selections but I think it would cause me to increase/decrease my stake on the selection. I tend to use my memory or better than that the in running comments on the racing post website.
I only did it for one race (feeling lazy) tomorrow as at first glance there looked to be plenty of pace on.
4:15 Fairyhouse
Maal -Held Up
Saddlers Mark- Held Up
Mill Moss- Chase leaders (bit of an unknown as out of his depth)
Blackwitch Woman- Lead (held up lto over trip short of her best and on unusual surface)
Galileo’s Daughter- Lead
No Trimmings- Held Up
Snap Alam- Chase leaders
Lady Bennett- Held up
Manacor- Held up (can lead)
Fairylike- Lead
Giving Orders- Held up
Jazz Girl- Lead/Prom
Mojita- Chase leaders
Act Of Love- Chase leadersFrom this I would expect there to be a strong early pace possibly suiting horses that that will be held up or chase leaders. There is 4 front runners in there (and a possibility of Manacor being prom). Galileo’s Daughter and Fairylike are drawn well so it would be unusual for them not to go forward. U have to use ur instinct too e.g. Fairylike chased leaders on her 2nd last outing but that was probably because she was ridden by an Amateur having her 2nd ride in public.
No Trimmings is drawn poorly in 14 but the fact that she is often held up (used to be s.i.s) negates that. I like No Trimmings tomorrow and the fact that there looks to be pace on has given me slightly more confidence in her.
I am only a novice when it comes to pace analysis so I would also be interested in any comments anyone has to make on my style of doing (sorry if this comes across as trying to hijack ur thread OP)
This was a v poor run today and far from an ideal start to the season. If you watch closely I think that this horse was very unhelpful to Ruby today. He seemed to be hanging for the last mile and at one stage Ruby resorted to giving him a couple of severe smacks down the right shoulder to straighten him which didn’t seem to work. He then allowed him to coast home and he was well beaten at this stage.
Ye may be right that the plan was for him to be given an easy race but for me this was a poor showing and he was well beaten.
I like this way of studying form, but interpretation of the figures is also important. Obviously there can be excuses for a ‘0’. But for sure profiling is a big help. Obviously don’t be tied to it as things like Fingeronthepulse actually being as good right handed even tho early in his career
he looked a left handed horse.Was hoping that everyone had forgotten about Cavalryman; that’s where my ew money is going but, alas, the 50/1 has gone now. Hope I can get 40/1 tomorrow. May have a bit on the Japanese horse as well.
I must have looked at him 10 times. He was betwen 200 and 400 Mo and I kept wondering what’s Frankie going to ride. Then I read something about him going to Australia which is probably why he was so big.
His trip abroad doesn’t inspire confidence but he stood out like a sore thumb in the Coranation Cup and I thought a win was just around the corner.
Maybe it’s just my suspicious mind but up until he went to Germany I thought they were at it and he was being trained for one race only.
Still could cause an upset but gut feeling isn’t good so after some thought I have decided to give him a miss.
Saver for me will now be Youmzain who on Arc form should actually win this easily. Probably would if he wasn’t Youmzain
)Whats Frankie going to ride in OZ????
Maybe colm is riding his own horse to win instead of worrying about anyone else. Chap is riding out of his skin lately and is with a good trainer in Marnane. Great team imo. Pity Dandy Boy didn’t settle.
THERE is likely to be a small field when Goldikova goes for her eleventh Group 1 victory in Sunday’s Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville.
RELATED LINKS
Jacques le Marois card
Hungerford Stakes card
Nine horses remained in Europe’s richest mile race at Wednesday’s forfeit stage and one of the two British-trained runners left in the race, Brian Meehan’s Arcano, will not be in the line-up.
Arcano won the Darley Prix Morny at Deauville last year, but owner Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum’s racing manager, Angus Gold, said: "We’re just having a look and we’re intending to run him in the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury on Saturday."That means that Paco Boy will be the only foreign-trained horse in the race and his trainer Richard Hannon said "He’s in excellent shape."
Makfi will be ridden for the first time by Christophe Soumillon and the 2,000 Guineas winner is on the comeback trail after a throat infection, which led to him running below expectations in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Robert Collet looks like he will saddle Royal Bench, who was a Listed winner at Deauville last time out. He said: "The colt is a definite runner and Ioritz Mendizabal will be in the saddle. It looks a hard race to win."
Another main contender is Fuisse, four-length winner of the Prix Messidor at Maisons-Laffitte last month. Only Green and Saying will act as pacemakers to Goldikova.
Following 8.2mm of rain the going at Deauville on Wednesday was good to soft to soft, but there is very little rain forecast before Sunday.
Anyone got the field?
I think Paco was very unlucky in Ascot. In a sprint Goldi was better placed than Paco and I think he will reverse the placings.
Thanks lads both sites look v v interesting sites and both are v detailed. Exactly what I was looking for.
metcheck does Ireland.
Cheers lads.
Anyone else fancy Crown Choice? Surely he’ll be ridden to be put there on the line tomorrow. Strikes me as one who doesn’t like been in front too long and Spencer just had things conspire against him the last day with 3 groups and he was stranded in between groups. What he needed was a real Spencer ride!!!! Hopefully Eddie won’t do what he did on him in the Victoria. The usual up the middle route will allow him to get plenty cover. It was a good run in the Bunbury and he was beaten by in form horses . These 8/1 shots have holes in them, Yaa Wayl beat a right hound the last day and 103 isn’t easy, Tagseed has beaten sum exposed yokes and the form hasn’t worked out. Decent Fella has proper form but he didn’t race much in his irish days and has to be a problem horse, hasn’t raced for nearly 2 mths, has he had another setback? Single figure not for me. I don’t like the Buckingham Palace form at all. Hasn’t worked out.
Does it worry anyone who’s backed Workforce that Sir Michael has said over and over that he isn’t working well at home. I think he’s a horse for the latter part of the season.
Chabal may be worth a biggish bet. I’ll see what price he is first.
Surely if he was a good work horse he would have been sent off a lot shorter than 3/1 in Goodwood. Just my thought.
Naas
6.40 Moonreach
Moonreach is the class act of this race. There really isn’t anything screaming well handicapped in the race. The brushed aside/ Miss Velocity form line has got knocks and looks poor, Mujaazef has never raced on this ground and being by Dubawi, that may be his preferred surface plus a 3 furlong drop in trip looks a bit mad. The two horses that have english form, Capacity and Wellmarked, haven’t got any form boosts to say marks of 78 and 85 are leinient. Wachman’s is the fly in the ointment. But the biggest danger may come from Indus Valley who is 13lb better off with Moonreach for the run in the Birdcatcher and is prob worth a saver. Moonreach ran v well in a good race lto and was certainly not disgraced behind good sprinters. He looks the one in the field that looks most capable of winning off his mark. 6f fast ground lookhis optimum.1pt Moonreach @ 10/1
Killarney
7.50 Old Si
This a horse I feel I know pretty well and I thought his most impressive performance was 2m4f round tralee when winning his first chase. He doesn’t get the 3 miles all out imo and conditions today are perfect. The run the last day was a good performance when jumping v well and just not getting home in a competitive Pat Taaffe Chase. It’s possible he is better lh too 611F1P0. The last 2 runs lh were in too good a race plus the trip was too far.
Of those at the head of the market, Powerstation is a dog, Hairy Molloy doesn’t get further than 20f, Jewel of the West’s stable is stink.
0.5pt ew Old Si @ 12/1
Wexford
5.10 Daggers Bond
The limerick race that contained Galianna also had Daggers Bond in it in 3rd. Given a quiet ride that day he may improve for the better ground and will hardly run into two as well handicapped as the 2 that beat him that day.1pt Daggers Bond @ 6/1
-1pt 2nd @ 7/1
Clonmel
Brog an Ri
Will be suited by step up in trip after being outpaced in Lim lto. An ordinary maiden today where if he does improve for 2mile he should win
1PT Brog an Ri @ 4/1
-1PT 5TH@7/2Galianna
Pat Flynn again! In fairness flynn has won this race 3 out of the last 4 years and does aim at it imo. Galiana finished second to what looks a well handicapped mare lto and a few from behind have ran well since. Flynn hardly had her tuned for her first start in a while and she should come on plus the better ground will suit too and the step up in trip.
1PT Galianna 9/2+4.5PT 1ST@7/2
Will Red Cadeaux get the trip. 6f longer than the last day. His sires % SR drops to 6% over 14f+ which doesn’t look good and the rp said he may be suited by a drop after finishing 5th over 14f last year. He’s defo well handicapped after beating 2 subsequent winner lto but the trip is a major doubt. If he stays he wins imo. One to watch anyway with a view to big handicaps later on in the season if he fails to get the trip today.
he looked a left handed horse.
)