Pace Analysis

[Namedmycatkauto]

New User here.

I started using the Pace Analysis (along with Speed Ratings) tool on AtTheRaces during Royal Ascot and the results were pleasantly profitable.

Does anyone use pace analysis (i.e. how horses in each race like to run) as part of form study. Basically I want a race-by-race guide each day to use as a quick reference to how the race may be run.

Can anyone recommend a good site for this? ATR obviously only had it for the Royal Meeting. Preferably free but would be willing to subscribe.

Any suggestions will be gratefully received.

Many Thanks.

[richbowman]

Timeform race passes offer in running symbols.

There is also a simple speed points method: look at the last

x

runs, give 4 points where a horse led before halfway, 2 points for a horse prominent before halfway.

[Anonymous]

Here are a few hot tips punters should remember about pace.

1. Two frontrunners fighting for the early lead do not ordinarily defeat one another, but three or more fighting frontrunners usually do.
2. In up to 7f races, contenders more than 2 3/4 behind the leader at the second call are poor bets to win, but good bets to finish 2nd and 3rd.
3. One of the surest bets at the races is the class horse on the lead.
4. Early pace supersedes late pace on the AW.
5. Late pace supersedes early pace on the turf.
6. In Grade I races at a mile and one-quarter, class laughs at pace.

[TheActuary]

I was unaware off Timeforms symbols as mention by richbowman but recently started operating and posting a similar analysis on my All Weather blogs

3 = Front Runner
2 = Prominent
1 = Held Up

Not so much as a pace analysis but due to my belief that this plays a major part in the effect of the draw.

I DO NOT MAKE SELECTIONS based on the draw but check whether a selection is likely to be disadvantaged.

As an example, a horse drawn wide that is usually held up would not be disadvantaged as much as a front or prominent runner. A horse with a preference to be prominent coming from a wide draw in a field full of hold up horses is likely to be able to grab a prominent position without using up to much stamina (dependant on distance) etc etc etc.

I would suggest that this is only of good use in 3yo+ and 4yo+ races where a horses running style is defined.

[Swain]

Hi,

I like to do my own pace analysis, this year is the first year I’ve been making a note of it. I wouldn’t say it has a bearing on my selections but I think it would cause me to increase/decrease my stake on the selection. I tend to use my memory or better than that the in running comments on the racing post website.

I only did it for one race (feeling lazy) tomorrow as at first glance there looked to be plenty of pace on.

4:15 Fairyhouse

Maal -Held Up
Saddlers Mark- Held Up
Mill Moss- Chase leaders (bit of an unknown as out of his depth)
Blackwitch Woman- Lead (held up lto over trip short of her best and on unusual surface)
Galileo’s Daughter- Lead
No Trimmings- Held Up
Snap Alam- Chase leaders
Lady Bennett- Held up
Manacor- Held up (can lead)
Fairylike- Lead
Giving Orders- Held up
Jazz Girl- Lead/Prom
Mojita- Chase leaders
Act Of Love- Chase leaders

From this I would expect there to be a strong early pace possibly suiting horses that that will be held up or chase leaders. There is 4 front runners in there (and a possibility of Manacor being prom). Galileo’s Daughter and Fairylike are drawn well so it would be unusual for them not to go forward. U have to use ur instinct too e.g. Fairylike chased leaders on her 2nd last outing but that was probably because she was ridden by an Amateur having her 2nd ride in public.

No Trimmings is drawn poorly in 14 but the fact that she is often held up (used to be s.i.s) negates that. I like No Trimmings tomorrow and the fact that there looks to be pace on has given me slightly more confidence in her.

I am only a novice when it comes to pace analysis so I would also be interested in any comments anyone has to make on my style of doing (sorry if this comes across as trying to hijack ur thread OP)

[HorseBettingBlog]

Yup its an interesting angle.

When referring to pace most common references are to an individual horses running style. Front runner / hold up horse etc.

However lesser touted are the stats for how certain individual track and distance combinations show a strong bias towards a particular running style.

In a simplistic sense a punter could for example be looking for a horse with a proven tendancy for early pace running in a course / distance combo that has a proven favorable bias towards such early pace horses. ( draw can play a part here as well )

One more obvious potential usage is to use pace data to back pre off and lay back in running at hopefully shorter odds.

Pace info ( both for horses and track / distance bias) is obtainable on a daily basis from RacingTrends.

See sample at http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/racing/sa … r-message/

Lots in that sample message but if you scroll down you will see a pace section.

You do have to pay for that service but stick your neck out, contact Dave and ask for a free trial if you feel it may be of longer term interest to you.

Ask nicely and you will be more prone to get a "yup sure no probs" rather than a "bog off you sponger" type response

[Author]

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