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I"m sure
Ollie Magern
fits your criteria Slowhand,regarding course form and handicap marks for the Charlie Hall at Wetherby on Saturday as would his fellow 12yo
Monets Garden
in winning at Aintree last Saturday!
This ‘profiling’ sounds very much like the way I approach the game.
I tend to concentrate on the extremes…….5 furlong and long distance, 14 furlong plus, handicaps
Handicaps because you’re dealing with a group of horses of around the same level of ability so predilictions for RH/LH, big/small field, ground, nature of track etc will tend to be the factors that seperate them. In a group race, for example, you can get horses of widely differing ability and horse can win ‘against it’s profile’ just because it’s much better than the others. Similarly I tend to stick to all aged handicaps where there’s a decent amount of back form to look at
The extremes of trip………because again I reckon it’s at the extremes where predilictions are most likely to determine the result and seperate out the horses.
Good call Slowhand.
You must get value bets as not too many punters would want to spend the time and effort involved in profiling, or form study of any kind I guess. The majority of punters scan the RP in the betting offices and make their choices in about 5 minutes. Even if you only spend a short time trying to evaluate ratings, be they your own or not and also taking the trouble to find an edge like you have done with your profiling you must win in the long term because you are NOT following the crowd and only betting on horses that have a real chance of winning a race at decent odds.
The first question I always ask when trying to sot out any handicap is whether the horse is there to win or is it there to get it’s mark reduced. It’s always a tricky one but I guess the higher the grade and the more prize money on offer one would like to think that they were there to try and win the race.
I just find the last time out fastest horse (Topspeed Rating but only the most recent run and not the " best" figure) it’s amazing how many winners come from this one source. I suppose logically the horse has run a very good race or better race last time out than the other runners in today’s race based on the Topspeed figure and as we know recent form is best.
Now you would probably think that this simple selection method would be so common and used by so many that all the selections would be short priced Favs but they are certainly not. Winners up to 11/1 as I speak.
I think that most punters don’t even think about "speed" and time ratings but for me they are a great indicator of a horses current level of form.
I just find the last time out fastest horse (Topspeed Rating but only the most recent run and not the " best" figure) it’s amazing how many winners come from this one source. I suppose logically the horse has run a very good race or better race last time out than the other runners in today’s race based on the Topspeed figure and as we know recent form is best.
I do my own speed ratings for the all weather and am quite influenced by ‘fastest last time run figure’
But now that i’ve got about 18 months of ratings stored on the RP I’ve started to notice patterns in these
One thing I’venoticed is that some horses can post high figures but only in races where they ginish down the field, ie they’re dragged to a good figure by the pace of the race but are never going to win a fast run race.
I think of these as ‘peloton horses’ from my interest in road race cycling – they post good figures by being in the middle of the peloton and being carried along by the group
So……..I prefer to use speed figures posted when a horses finishes within a length or two of the winner as a better indication of it’s level of form.
Going back to profiles, I also use my AW speed figs in profiling – eg, you might see a horse with 3 wins at Wolves over 5 furlongs and no wins from 4 runs at kempton. If it’s running at Kempton it could be easier to dismiss it as ‘better at Wolves’ and it’s odds might reflect that conclusion. But it’s speed figs could show that it’s run faster in those 4 runs at Kemp than in the 3 wins at Wolves. Then you start looking more closely to see if there’s a possible edge here.
I think what you say is correct about horses producing a high figure when dragged along in a fast run race. However if that horse is then eased in class or conditions of the current race are more suitable it may well be up to winning as the "pace" for this current race might be slower and it has already proved it can run faster than today’s opposition.
The puzzle never ends!
I think of these as ‘peloton horses’ from my interest in road race cycling – they post good figures by being in the middle of the peloton and being carried along by the group.
My findings as well, Slowly Away.
A runners with better FORM will normally beat one with better SPEED.
The only runner that can run faster, is the WINNER.
Backing two runners is the relentless pursuit of value. Backing each way is a shortcut to the poor house. Only 7% make a long term profit.
I like this way of studying form, but interpretation of the figures is also important. Obviously there can be excuses for a ‘0’. But for sure profiling is a big help. Obviously don’t be tied to it as things like Fingeronthepulse actually being as good right handed even tho early in his career
he looked a left handed horse.Good Selection of Lucky Punt in 4.20 Southwell..This is my local track,some 7 miles away,and as a regular racegoer,you get to know all the idiosyncracies of Fibresand racing.
Fibresand is,of course,a unique surface in the UK.
Previous course form is more relevant here than any other track.The deep surface seems to suit colts and geldings more than mares and fillies who are not so constitutionally strong.
Speed is important,as is pace….horses cannot dawdle like they do at Lingfield,which is why most races are run at a fair clip,and beaten-by distances are far greater than elsewhere.
Pedigrees can give you an edge…..the offspring of Dubawi,Captain Rio and Medician seem to do well,whereas the offspring of Kheyleef and femails out of Rock of Gibraltar both have poor fibresand records.
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SH’s selection of Lucky Punt perfectly ilustrates the real value of profiling, imo.
Not only was the horse handicapped on his form away from Southwell, he was also priced on it – and similar applies to other fundamentals such as distance, going, class, pace and fitness. All part of racing’s rich tapestry, and all ignored (to a greater or lesser degree) when it comes to fixing a horse with a rating.
More power to your elbow, SH.On a side note, I’ve never subscribed to this "peloton effect" idea, where horses are supposedly dragged along into running their best speed figures.
In cycling, ‘slipstreaming’ often plays a large part in race tactics, but horses are altogether bigger, slower, and usually race further apart, than cycles.
What often happens, imo, is a horse will occasionally run to its best when it’s not asked to compete with others throughout the race, and consequently uses less energy than those vying for position, enabling it to finish much closer than previous form suggests it should. Mon Mome, in last season’s Gold Cup, being a prime example.
Much the same frequently happens with horses given an ‘easy lead’ also, just one of the reasons I’ll be fielding against Cape Blanco, next season.
That’s my theory anyway, and it’s served me well, thus far.ps. The forum clock has just failed its biannual test, incidentally.
Good thread this, and it’s something I realise I use quite alot but have been doing so rather subconciously. Piscean looks of some interest today.
His record on polytrack reads 227121, whilst on turf his record is a less impressive 4 from 39. Equally for Adam Kirby he’s 2 from 5 but for An Other 4 from 40. A strong pace is vital for him and I think a turning track keeps him interested that bit more. No fancy prices but wouldn’t be in a hurry to side against him.
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Had a look at this race too, DJ, though the one I homed in on was Le Toreador.
3 out of 5 on polytrack, has a handy draw for a front runner, and has P Hanagan up, so won’t be hanging about. Trouble is, there’s a few likely to take him on so he may not last home, but, at the current 12/1, might be worth a small win and place wager.On a side note, I’ve never subscribed to this "peloton effect" idea, where horses are supposedly dragged along into running their best speed figures.
Well……..my thinkng about this was really a warning note to myself to beware of horses that record really high speed figs when finishing 7th or 8th. Particularly if they do it several times but can’t reproduce those figures in races where they finish in contention
The ‘peloton’ idea is just a way of giving me a shorthand notation to flag up these horses. I don’t really need to analyse the whys and wherefores of it.
Once it’s apparent in their record, or I think it might be, then that’s enough to flag them up by describing them as ‘peloton’ horses in my own mind.
A note on Piscean……..when he won last time at Kempton he recorded the biggest speed fig of any horse in the 18 months I’ve been compiling (expect for some Dundalk runners, whee I think the RP standard times are dubious). I’ll be interested to see how he goes today at Ling.
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Good call guys – the 5/1 looks pretty generous now!
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Good thread this, and it’s something I realise I use quite alot but have been doing so rather subconciously. Piscean looks of some interest today.
His record on polytrack reads 227121, whilst on turf his record is a less impressive 4 from 39. Equally for Adam Kirby he’s 2 from 5 but for An Other 4 from 40. A strong pace is vital for him and I think a turning track keeps him interested that bit more. No fancy prices but wouldn’t be in a hurry to side against him.
Quality pre-race reading, excellent intuition David and hope you made yourself a good wedge.
Thanks
MRWCheers folks. Think Piscean could be a really interesting horse this winter if they keep him on the go. He has something a little Matsunosuke about him in that the way the races tend to pan out on polytrack will count for much more than a few extra lbs on his back.
Did note there was a jocket change mind, George Baker taking the ride, but he’s just the sort of kid glove rider that would also get the best out of him anyway.
he looked a left handed horse.
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