Swain’s Lays and Plays

[Swain]

Hi all, I’ve decided to take a carvills hill esque type approach to getting out of a slump in my form, nevermind the form of the horses I’ve been backing, and I’m gonna try to validate my bets by writing a short explanation of why I fancy them on here. Since Mid 09 I’ve been struggling with enthusiasm (call it laziness maybe) for form study. I’m sure there are other problems with my punting too but this might be a start in rectifying them. After a decent 07 and a great 08, 09 was a small losing year and I think it was complacency due to the previous 2 years. 10 has started off okay but I still feel I’m not giving it 100%. Anyway if anyone wants to comment on my analysis please do. Cheers and fingers crossed.

[Swain]

7.40 Ballinrobe

A very hot beg chase for the venue and is well worth watching for pointers towards the decent summer novices.
I like Annual Report in this. He has been racing on soft or worse going and while he has performed well on it, I feel there is improvement to come on better ground as all his winning siblings were good ground horses and his only win was on a sound surface. His chase form has been decent. FTO he was second to Aranleigh who was a bit lucky to beat Coolcashin after. The 3rd Caim Hill has won a G2 since, 4th won a marse beg chase and the 5th Wickham Street won a beg chase in Tipp last week. He ran well for a long way in Punchestown nto but imo the unraceable going that day found him out and he was very tired when falling at the last. Given a near 3mth break he ran poor in Gowran but 2 weeks later he was 2nd to Final Question, who won off 116 after and is now 125 and the 3rd that day won a beg chase since and has been competitive off 114. The mad thing is that on his latest run he was going to finish well in front of Corskeagh but for falling and yet is quoted 3 points bigger in most of the books early prices. Annual Report will improve for the ground and shouldn’t be 10’s.

Opposition:
Dogs- Corskeagh and Maucaillou
Warcraft isn’t good enough
92 TEAM will like the better ground but has no experience and Cash is not a plus.
Some Target isn’t proven on the going, struggled to get by pro loser Fennis Boy and had a slog in F’house
Dual Gales may need the run and is a summer class horse.

1pt Annual Report 10’s gen.

-1PT 6th @ 8/1

[Swain]

Clonmel

Brog an Ri
Will be suited by step up in trip after being outpaced in Lim lto. An ordinary maiden today where if he does improve for 2mile he should win
1PT Brog an Ri @ 4/1
-1PT 5TH@7/2

Galianna
Pat Flynn again! In fairness flynn has won this race 3 out of the last 4 years and does aim at it imo. Galiana finished second to what looks a well handicapped mare lto and a few from behind have ran well since. Flynn hardly had her tuned for her first start in a while and she should come on plus the better ground will suit too and the step up in trip.
1PT Galianna 9/2

+4.5PT 1ST@7/2

[Swain]

Wexford

5.10 Daggers Bond
The limerick race that contained Galianna also had Daggers Bond in it in 3rd. Given a quiet ride that day he may improve for the better ground and will hardly run into two as well handicapped as the 2 that beat him that day.

1pt Daggers Bond @ 6/1

-1pt 2nd @ 7/1

[Swain]

Killarney

7.50 Old Si

This a horse I feel I know pretty well and I thought his most impressive performance was 2m4f round tralee when winning his first chase. He doesn’t get the 3 miles all out imo and conditions today are perfect. The run the last day was a good performance when jumping v well and just not getting home in a competitive Pat Taaffe Chase. It’s possible he is better lh too 611F1P0. The last 2 runs lh were in too good a race plus the trip was too far.

Of those at the head of the market, Powerstation is a dog, Hairy Molloy doesn’t get further than 20f, Jewel of the West’s stable is stink.

0.5pt ew Old Si @ 12/1

[Swain]

Naas

6.40 Moonreach
Moonreach is the class act of this race. There really isn’t anything screaming well handicapped in the race. The brushed aside/ Miss Velocity form line has got knocks and looks poor, Mujaazef has never raced on this ground and being by Dubawi, that may be his preferred surface plus a 3 furlong drop in trip looks a bit mad. The two horses that have english form, Capacity and Wellmarked, haven’t got any form boosts to say marks of 78 and 85 are leinient. Wachman’s is the fly in the ointment. But the biggest danger may come from Indus Valley who is 13lb better off with Moonreach for the run in the Birdcatcher and is prob worth a saver. Moonreach ran v well in a good race lto and was certainly not disgraced behind good sprinters. He looks the one in the field that looks most capable of winning off his mark. 6f fast ground lookhis optimum.

1pt Moonreach @ 10/1

[Author]

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