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Anyone fill me in on the trends for this race.
I am going again this year and haven’t backed the winner for many years so thought some of you experts could point me in the right direction
Please……My notes make no sense to me whatsoever; just say ‘no Chester Cup winner has won next time out’..so lay whatever wins next time. Not much help really. Sorry.
raymo61
It’s a tight left handed track and for sprints a low draw is essential (1-4). The Cup is over 2m 2f 147y
and there are 45 entered.Wait until that comes down (early next week) then look for a course and distance lover who likes fast going (unless it pours).
Lovely setting not the views of Goodwood…
Thanks Fryern I do like Chester for the views and olde worlde charm and I have backed a goodly few winners there too!! Which helps!!
But the Chester Cup always seems to be a losing race for me!!
Two years ago I even backed four winners!!Hi raymo61,
I’ll tell you nearer the time what I might have a flutter on in that race. That’ll be one to avoid!
If you ever go to Goodwood make sure you go to the top of the Richmond stand and take in the views both North and South (and a drop of ale).
Have a great time…
Unfortunately the only time I went to Goodwood it was on the Saturday of Glorious Goodwood when it absolutely chucked down and you could barely see 5 feet in front of you so I missed all the lovely views
As Chester is probably my closest racecourse (closely followed by Bangor On Dee), I have been there numerous times, though never this May meeting, and its the best I’ve been to. Location wise its perfect to get to being in the heart of the city and it’s easy to go to the bars and pubs in town afterwards. I too never have much luck as far as the CC is concerned, perhaps Michael Jarvis has a live contender to further enhance his great record in this race?
It’s getting easier the field is down to 19.
I like Swingkeel and Mamlook but not their prices (12-1 & 9-1) so there is no hurry. Wait for a guaranteed run.
I wouldn’t want to turn anyone off Swingkeel, but I had a hunch that maybe the plan was to get him down a few pounds in time for the Goodwood Stakes.
The other hunch I had, was that if the ground stayed good or faster, Desert Sea may run a nice race. I think he is possibly the type that may get over-looked. A 7yo, fairly exposed off a near career high-mark, having his first run of the year, probably quite easy to pass by.
…but imo he’s got a few things going for him. Good C+D form (4th in this race last year off the same mark). A nice draw which will allow him to drop onto he rail. He likes fast ground which hopefully he’ll get, & he has also run some very nice races first time out. He has also proved he can run fast (albeit on fast ground if that makes any sense).
I was quite happy to have a bit each-way on him at a few days ago. Still think 16/1 is a fair price.
On the Home page of the RP, apparently the most fancied runner is La Vecchia Scuola.
Can someone be kind enough to tell me a good rule-of-thumb for converting jumps handicap marks to flat, because maybe that explains it. On the flat, he seemed to have improved double the amount he since improved on the flat in term so his handicap mark. It ended at 144. He’s now, I believe, 88 for the flat, the same as his last run (under either code) in 2008.
I’ve been lookiong for horses with potential improvement, but there are so many – including a few light-weights. One with fair-seeming collateral form with Menorah is Spring Jim, who’s also a full brother to a horse rated much higher in his day.
AS YOU WERE. It was Mamlook who had great collateral form with Menorah via Ge Me Out Of Here.
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Grimes
A rough rule of thumb would be to allow 3 stone for the difference in codes, (Standard times are often set at 9st for flat races, 12st for jumps).Majestic Concorde
will do for me.
Showed he should appreciate this trip when running on well and winning a fast run 2m h/c at Galway, and confirmed that to be no fluke when 3rd in a decent Curragh h/c on ground that didn’t suit. His subsequent flat run can be ignored as the race was run at an unsuitable crawl and, for a horse that can lie up with the pace, has an absolutely ideal draw. Win & place at 12/1 will do nicely, imo.After a deluge of rain in the North West end of last week, it’s now drying out quite quickly and there has been quite a strong wind in last few days so I would expect good ground come tomorrow.
The bias of the draw has been much debated at Chester for many years, especially over 5/6/7f’s, but over this 2 mile plus trip, is it going to have much effect? The majority of the last few winners have come from stalls 1-15, so it probably isn’t that vital to be drawn very low in this case.
At the moment I like Red Cadeaux, whose only question mark for me would be the extreme hike in trip from 1m4f to 2m3f, but looks an improver and Kieren Fallon is very adept round this course, comes from stall 7. Majestic Concorde would also be in my shortlist, is in berth 1 and has a good record in big handicaps both over the jumps and flat, only concern is the lack of a recent run.
The interesting one for me is Fiulin, now with Evan Williams with Jonny Murtagh on board, and although in stall 17, comes here on a very fair flat mark (99), 7lb lower when destroying The Betchworth Kid at Nottingham last Spring. Was a respectable 7th in the Supreme which shows he might stay.
A good race if not the best of recent times, but no outright, clear favourite makes in a bit of a conundrum from a betting perspective. Obviously Bernie The Bolt deserves to be up there with a great win at Newmarket last September, but the course perhaps might not play into his favour.
Red Cadeaux, Majestic Concorde and Fiulin eachway for me.
Agree with Rich about
Fiulin
. His 2 hurdle runs were really good I thought, pitched in at the highest level, travelled well to 3 out on debut (G2, 21f) and then 7th in a decent Supreme, staying on to some effect after helping lead the field coming down the hill. The race has gone to his type before (Admiral, Bulwark); pity he’s in 17, but they’ll have to figure that out. 25/1
And
Desert Sea
, already mentioned also, sound surface, has won a listed race over 2 miles, is good off a break (won a prep before his 4th last year) and this time they’re trying it fresh. Box 3, scrape the paint and produce. 16/1
gl
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Fuilin an interesting one. I didn’t think he was particularly well handled by Botti or a number of his pilots during his previous flat career. Could be more to come yet. Mind you I have not been impressed with the way the Williams stable handled his so far brief career over obstacles either. Would love to have seen Luca have a go with this fellow.
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How could anyone back a six year old mare that hasn’t raced for six hundred days? Bernie The Bolt would interest me at around 16/1 but not the current price. It looks every bit as tough as the wide open market indicates.
Hi raymo61,
Green Manalishi looks a cracking ew bet in the race after the Chester Cup the 3.15. He’s 7-1 with Paddypower. He’s drawn 4 and loves the course and distance. His rating is a good 95.
Can’t decide between Swingkeel and Mamlook. Ladbrokes go 11-1 and 9-1, 1/4 the odds 4 places. They are drawn 4 and 5 which is good. I’d go ew on both.
Have a great day
Fry
I agree about Green Manilishi, although its a very competitive sprint. Should appreciate the slight ease in the ground too (think its good at the moment?). Red Cadeaux now favourite I see, the Fallon/Dunlop factor at work there. Stall 7 is good just whether he stays now, worth the risk I think as he looks a definite improver.
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