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I seem to have backed Desert Sea, Som Tala and Fiulin. I wasn’t going to have a bet, but I turned on ATR and there were 3 guys talking about value ew bets in the race, and they mentioned Som Tala and Desert Sea. These were the two horses that I kept going back to. Reckoned it was an omen, so I went to Corals and had a small ew on them. I then went to W Hills to pick up my Makfi money and had a bet on Fiulin. He won’t win, but I reckon I’ll get a good run for my money until he burns himself out. I deserve to get some money back, because the bookie overpaid me and I told her. Thank you for being so honest, she said, but I knew what she was thinking was ‘what an idiot’.
Thanks, reet hard. It hadn’t occurred to me that they might be based on the same handicap scale.
More generally, I’ve narrowed my dabbles down to Som Tala and Red Cadeaux. Maybe even less Raincoat. These big handicaps, especially this one, tend to be money down the drain for me, as a betting medium.
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Jimmy Fortune has ridden more than one poor race on Swingkeel and is reason enough to leave him well alone for this, but as has already been said he’s probably being readied to peak at Goodwood later in the year.
In a race I don’t think I’ve ever come close to picking the winner in, I’m siding with Jane Chapple-Hyam’s
Rangefinder
. I’m not a huge fan of the trainer and it’s fair to say that the draw could have been kinder, but the horse is lightly raced, progressive, well bred and has been running supremely well over trips arguably on the short side.
He’s perhaps 33/1 for a reason, but I’m happy to take the risk.
Will Red Cadeaux get the trip. 6f longer than the last day. His sires % SR drops to 6% over 14f+ which doesn’t look good and the rp said he may be suited by a drop after finishing 5th over 14f last year. He’s defo well handicapped after beating 2 subsequent winner lto but the trip is a major doubt. If he stays he wins imo. One to watch anyway with a view to big handicaps later on in the season if he fails to get the trip today.
Weld can get one ready for a big day and I always take note in festival type events of his runners.
Majestic Concorde has lots of ability and I cannot see any other reason to come here apart from to carry off a big prize. The one draw wont hinder his chance and he goes well fresh.
A tentative selection who,by my calculations, has six length on this lot
If he retains all of his old ability that is well done fryern, the only one to mention the winner.
my 2 unplaced, despite a good start this flatgash really depresses me, so might leave it alone for a bit
Just a 3rd for me with my selections on here, but had a sneaky ew bet on Tastahil last minute so that’ll do.
Jarvis does well at Chester and with 2 winners today I reckon Almiqdaad and Yaa Wayl are two to watch. As far as the Vase is concerned I’m going for Rocket Man for O’Brien, he rarely leaves without a winner and the way he stayed on last time out suggests he’ll get the extra 2f.
well done fryern, the only one to mention the winner.
Thanks BB
I’ll have to teach you ratio betting
I have had one of those days stuck on the top of Bury Hill waiting for the AA for 5 hours!!I see Swingkeel was 5th so a warm up for something bigger at Goodwood, as someone pointed out.
Swingkeel was quite badly hampered as well, I think. Haven’t had a chance to rewatch the race properly, yet.Tastahil ran a mighty race. Could they be thinking of the Melbourne Cup for him, I wonder?
keep it to yourself fry, I do fine overall
ones to avoid tomorrow are Sweet Lightning (should travel like the wrath of god) and Sans Frontieres (corking run in the Dante).
Moe not sure if Tasta has the push-button zing for Melby, but he’s he’ll win a big pot this season, or rather should
Be very interesting to see where Swingkeel goes next certainly went further than the winner.
A bigger pot it will be!
I backed Desert Sea, e-w. Looked well drawn and ran a respectable enough race in last year’s Chester Cup.
I knew my fate after about half a furlomg – I feet the horse was too far back, and it seemed to run in fits and starts. When brought to make a challenge it was coming from a hopeless position, and then got (very) slightly squeezed, though by then it had no chance of even making 1,2,3,4.
Just wondering if anyone else who backed it had a view? To say that I was disappointed is putting it mildly!
J
Yes, I was disappointed with Desert Sea, but I haven’t rewatched the race yet. Not bothered with my other two, Som Tala and Fiulin, because they were backed more in hope than expectation, but I did feel I’d got a guaranteed place with Desert Sea and expected him to race quite prominently. Not having a prep run might not have been such a good plan after all, or perhaps [most likely] he was up against better horses this year, Tastahil and Mamlook being mighty impressive.
keep it to yourself fry, I do fine overall
ones to avoid tomorrow are Sweet Lightning (should travel like the wrath of god) and Sans Frontieres (corking run in the Dante).
Got 1 right anyway lol
Victoria Cup thread anyone?
I backed Desert Sea, e-w. Looked well drawn and ran a respectable enough race in last year’s Chester Cup.
I knew my fate after about half a furlomg – I feet the horse was too far back, and it seemed to run in fits and starts. When brought to make a challenge it was coming from a hopeless position, and then got (very) slightly squeezed, though by then it had no chance of even making 1,2,3,4.
Just wondering if anyone else who backed it had a view? To say that I was disappointed is putting it mildly!
J
John2345, I wouldn’t be too disappointed. This is my opinion on Desert Sea’s run. Imo, three things conspired against him, but that’s life really.
1. He was further back then I expected, but only one horse length away from a very good position. If he was able to travel in the place Majestic Concorde was, to me, that would have been fine.
2. Imo the thing that really messed it up for him was the pace of the race. You can normally bank on decent pace in this race, but it seemed fairly moderate until the last 5-6f. It was his first race of the season, he was boxed in & he never really settled. In a truer run race he probably would have been able to settle, & that’s cost him.
3. When the jockey realised he had to make an forward move, there was no space & he was not able to get a run. I’d argue it was all over by this stage anyway, as he’d taken too much out of himself earlier in the race.
If we’re being really constructively critical, you could argue that the jockey should have been a bit more lively getting out of the stalls & getting a rails position. Or the connections should have adopted the same tactics as they did in this race last year & raced more prominently (which I thought they were going to do, as he was likely to be a bit keen, but they do like holding him up).
I’m convinced Desert Sea will have his day, he’ll probably be held up even further back next time!
If he retains all of his old ability that is 
2 on the day though 
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