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The Racing Post moved Ten Sovereigns forward 11 lbs yesterday, up to 113. My first thought watching the race was whether he had actually needed to improve at all to win.
He was 1/3 Fav and facing nothing dangerous looking.
The assessor has taken the 3rd as running right to her best on 91 but this was her 9th race of the season and she is only a maiden winner from those nine starts. If she has had an off day it might be a concern for the form strength.
My first port of call was runner up Bruce Wayne and the fact that he ran behind Ten Sovereigns last week. This time he was roughly EIGHT lengths closer to Ten Sovereigns. Bruce Wayne was rated 68 last week but if the Fav’s figure is correct, then Bruce Wayne has improved 32 lbs in one week!
It could be true but I would be cautious of taking it on trust. Bruce Wayne’s next run will be key to the form. That looks ripe for a lower run next time out. We will see.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Someone is living in a world of their own where logical thinking and the ability to stick to the topic do not exist.
I am talking about three horses and their combined odds for ONE race. The response talks about me backing three horses for THREE SEPERATE races.
Tell you what, let’s ignore the odds I have obtained and, instead, just focus on the three horses.
Only ONE horse can win the Guineas, barring a dead heat or triple dead heat. That means two bets are guaranteed losers. My bets were on three different races, meaning they COULD all be winners.
There was/is therefore no relevance to mentioning that I had backed the three horses in question, for three individual races. The prices I took ARE relevant to the arguement though, because my question was SPECIFICALLY about the odds NOW and not about odds taken by anyone, not just me, earlier, when they were better value.
I hope that’s clear now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Stop slevering Ginger.
My post asked if the three horses combined in one firm’s book at 6/4 was value. Your reply was a load of nonsense that did not address my query at all.
I backed Calyx at 25/1 for the Guineas, I backed Too Darn Hot at 50/1 for the Derby and I backed Ten Sovereigns at 16/1 for the Commonwealth Cup.
I have them for THREE SEPERATE races and at 25/1, 50/1 and 16/1.
How does that remotely tie in to 6/1, 6/1 and 7/1 for the SAME RACE?
Read the post and answer it appropriately would be my advice. You are making an arse of yourself here. Even Ray Charles could see you are havering nonsense here.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
You have your theories and I have mine. It matters to ME what horses do in the build up to certain races. If that doesn’t matter to you then fine. STOP trying to make out YOUR opinion is the correct one.
Even if it does pan out the way I felt, you will have a million excuses as to why I fluked it and that it should have gone the way YOU plotted it. That is an illness in the mind and it’s getting on more peoples tits than just mine. You’re a flawed individual Mark.
If you lived in my street I would have to take a restraining order out.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I asked earlier about Watan:-
This looks a tougher race and where does another defeat leave the horse moving forward?
Richard Hannon was bullish again before today’s race, talking about next year’s 2000 Guineas. The horse has gone out there and made him look like an idiot, getting beaten more than 15 lengths.
Surely it was not the original plan to run in the Acomb AND the Solario? Had he won the Acomb, would he have skipped the Solario and if so, why did second place trigger taking in the second race?
Richard Hannon said they would have some “Fun” with the horse. That didn’t look much fun today, seeing any Guineas plan seriously torpedoed.
Watan is 100/1 for those who wish to keep the faith.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It’s a funny old Guineas market so far from the race. Some firms have an injured horse at 7/1 and two Group 3 winners at 6/1. One of those looks a sprinter and the other horse was considered more of a Derby sort after debuting at a mile.
Is it really a 6/4 shot that one of those three will win it?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
He looks a sprinter to me. They have been down the Guineas road with US Navy Flag and it was patent that it didn’t suit. For all that you might WANT a Guineas contender, that alone will make zero difference to whether the horse will stay.
That Guineas is getting tight at the top of the betting and going into the final furlong on the day you might end up being the hare who sets it up for eg Too Darn Hot.
16/1 is history for Ten Sovereigns here and a Middle Park win will see him skinny I would think.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
PERSIAN KING looks a more substantial colt who is likely to progress plenty from today’s effort. A son of Kingsman he was a bit slowly away and he could not quite match the winner’s burst from the front. Two lengths in arrears at the line, he kept on in second, coming clear of the rest of the field by three lengths.
Persian King was out at Chantilly today, racing over a mile he was odds on and he won in appropriate style, stretching away to win by 6 lengths and it was 7 lengths further back to the 3rd. He looks a fine prospect and will no doubt step up in grade next time.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Too Darn hot to beat Arthur Kitt for me and I can taste the 50/1 Champagne already at Epsom next June 😉
Thady Gosden getting plenty of praise for his professionalism in front of the cameras but don’t get carried away son. He mentioned that Too Darn Hot had won his maiden over 7F but it was actually a mile.
I reckon Too Darn Hot will cack all over Anthony Van Dyck but 5/1 for the Derby is ridiculous.
These shoddy quotes are why I like to play early and take a chance at bigger odds. He’s pretty much unbackable now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Paddy Power have cut Ten Sovereigns into 7/1 after he hosed up again
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Jack, It was all about the trip today. Had it been 6F I would not have been on.
The Bolger filly was my way into the race. I listed the reasons above. It also looked likely Peach Tree would put the pace to the race.
I felt Peach Tree might run well last week at big odds but she folded quickly. Today she has kept on much better.
I doubt the form is strong at all and some of the Guineas quotes are silly for all that she closed up well at the finish today and is a filly with an appealing look to her.
The Bolger filly was awful, she folded like a cheap Chinese lantern. All too familiar sight for the trainers fancied runners for me to play on his horses.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
TEN SOVEREIGNS 16/1
Makes a quick return to the track today after blowing his field away last week.
Aidan said the Middle Park is his target and that suggests Sprinter to me.
2/5 today and surely he gets cut if he wins.
It may help if Aidan elaborates on his long term aims today.
Get ON
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
There’s too much I don’t like about Bandiuc Elie:-
1. Bolger
2. Six days since last run
3. 50/1 last time and unexpected 22 lbs rise in ratings on 3rd start
4. A maiden after 3 starts and in Group Company. Not many break their duck in group company.I can see the thinking behind Bolger’s horse being superior coming in but overall the O’Brien filly appealed more. The betting is tight at the moment between the two.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
There are known knowns, unknown knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.
Donald Rumsfeld.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I felt Just Wonderful was a good bet at 2/1 here.
Her debut was full of promise and I felt she was the better long term prospect than Fairyland. Obviously, she seemed taken off her feet in the Albany and it is hard to figure that she, and Fairyland were once 1st and 2nd Favs for the Queen Mary over 5F. I said then that they were highly unlikely runners in the shorter race where Aidan has a poor record.
Last time out Just Wonderful was more like it, running to a PB of 95 on RPRs, after a poxy effort of 64 in the Albany, a figure that was a stone and a half below her debut figure.
For me, the more heavily tipped Bolger filly was a false and poor value favourite early doors. 50/1 last time, she avenged defeat at the hands of Zagitova from a previous meeting. It all looks ropey to me. A Jim Bolger maiden at a short price, previously behind Peach Tree, who looks sure to be the pacemaker for Just Wonderful here, despite the blurb stating there was more to come from her. Aye, that would be right, she will be the pacemaker for Just Wonderful here. Any firms offering odds on THAT?
If someone offered me money to put on a Jim Bolger favourite at skinny odds, I would rather put it in an incinerator and at least get some heat out of it.
My one worry with this is that Aidan has taken another two runs to see that the filly needed further and has now gone up to a mile and thrown in a filly to make the pace. It’s almost sublime to ridicuous territory.
Still 2/1 looks good to me here with the stable finding winners again of late.
Just Wonderful at 2/1 for me. I could see her nearer evens by flagfall.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Oh, oh, Spaghettio.
Ten Sovereigns is out again tomorrow in the Round Tower Stakes at the Curragh. That seems early enough to be hitting the track again.
A bigger worry for me is that O’Brien says the Middle Park is target for the colt longer term.
I pointed out last year that the Middle Park is an awful guide to the Guineas and US Navy Flag became the latest colt to win the Middle Park but fail in the Guineas.
That has to be a worry for me on his Guineas chances and the bulk of his entries are at 6F.
That in mind, I have backed him at 16/1 for the Commonealth Cup instead. That will surely collapse if he wins tomorrow.
Commonwealth Cup Ten Sovereigns 16/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Useless headline in the Sporting Life website. It says that Richard Kingscote is “Relishing” the ride on Arthur Kitt but reading the article actually reveals that the jockey is pretty negative, stating that the horse really needs to up his game and has a chance of being right out of it early doors. The general gist is that the horse needs further. The trainer did hint at the stamina requirement long term, so why enter up at 7F then?
Watan is out again early enough and I sometimes wonder with Hannon. He was bullish about the colt last time and he was second. Can’t he sit on it for a while and make plans? I don’t like quick returns to the track for horses you think might make a good sort at 3YO. This looks a tougher race and where does another defeat leave the horse moving forward?
Victory Command has tons of experience after seven runs. He’s won 4 of them but after looking so-so earlier, it seemed that stepping up in trip was the making of him. He’s won his last three but two of those were egg and spoon races at Beverley, one of those races saw him 1/14 Fav. For me, his chance lies solely on his latest start, when winning in Listed class. He seemed to get an easy lead that day and was 4 lengths clear of his field before they closed him down to half that margin. I am underwhelmed by his OR of 103 and will find it cripplingly depressing if he wins this.
Dunkerron is very decent, if not a potential star for next year. He finished ahead of Confiding last time when they ran behind Dark Vision, the horse that sent Mark Johnston off on one like a man with two willies and a sack of Viagra. More exposed than the reopposing Confiding but he’s twice the odds of the Meade horse in places and that trainer seems to be like a toddler on blue Smarties in terms of hyperactivity.
Confiding was compared as “Similar” in abilty to Advertise before the Vintage Stakes and I backed him myself, mostly because there were several in the race that I was very negative on. In my preview for the race I wrote that I would have backed Dark Vision had he been trained by anyone other than Mark Johnston, with the result then becoming inevitable. Mark Johnston is very excited by Dark Vision but this race will go a good way to either justifying, or perhaps dampening the enthusiasm.
Too Darn Hot has hokey-cokeyed his way in and out of the race if we judge the betting patterns but now that he IS in, will he be shaking it all about? He’s actually the lowest rated horse in the race at the moment and at the odds he is now, they are taking it as if he is more or less certain to bridge the gap and add more on top. He is dropping in trip, which is a bit of a pet hate of mine when I have backed a horse for the Derby. My thinking is that if a horse is going to go the Derby then start at 7F and work to the mile afterwards. Not keen on them doing it the other way.
If Too Darn Hot wins this well, he should be pretty short for the Derby if Gosden makes the right sort of comments, yet a win at this 7F makes the colt a big Guineas player and he’ll be skinny there as well. We have seen Gosden’s poor record at Newmarket in May and that would hardly be the best kickoff for Epsom. The inevitable stamina questions for Epsom will also emerge for the horse if he is fast enough for a mile Classic.
From a selfish point of view I would like to see Too Darn Hot win but ironically I don’t want him to do it in the style of a horse unlikely to stay a mile and a half.
It’s all ifs and buts and long way off. As raised earlier, the family haven’t taken their Racing so well. Surely if Too Darn Hot wins this, he will have only one more race this season?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
