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Galician went off a ridiculous price and was totally outpaced before making some late headway.

Just The Judge was a nice winner and went off a generous 3/1 as Hannon’s inmate went off 2/1 favourite on the heads of a win in what looked a pretty modest maiden to me. Just to add insult to injury Strong Suit couldn’t reel in a 25/1 shot, thus letting me down for my double with Mount Athos at 2/1 Grrrrr!!

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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3.20 Galician
(unlucky that his jockey LTO didn’t know Ascot)

I am backing this guy today, he is going to think it is his birthday with Rab Havlin on board instead of Chantal Sutherland. I can see him making all and finding a bit more near the finish in typical Mark Johnston style.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Charlie Hills may not have had a great season Steve, but I’ve heard from a stable insider. He isn’t usually so bullish about their horses, but Just The Judge is expected to win. They really think a lot of her, get the impression she could be their best two year old.

It is a tricky race though. I don’t think any of the runners has made the running before. Might be slowly run and Excess Knowledge won over a mile last time, also by stamina influence Monsun. Unless Buick makes it (held up last time) I can see Excess Knowledge outpaced in the sprint for home. Gosden isn’t in the same sparkling form he was a couple of weeks ago either (though not at all "bad"). Pasaka Boy’s trainer is in cracking form. Has tracked pace before and as such might be the one to go on (be at a possible positional advantage). Probably save on Pasaka Boy in the morning. Ninjago is interesting too, he won over 6f so should have some toe if it turned in to a speed test. Be a little surprised if Miss You Too was good enough to win an average renewal.

My 100% book:
Just The Judge 6/4, Pasaka Boy 9/2, Ninjago 9/2, Excess Knowledge 5/1, Miss You Too 13/1.

Obviously if you have inside info that gives you some advantage. I agree that Gosden isn’t getting the same results he was earlier but whether there is a general problem or it is just that some of his horses have reached the top of their upward curve as they try to progress through the grades. He has had a few nice two year olds winning this past couple of weeks though and although I am a bit surprised Excess Knowledge is running over a furlong shorter this time, it was reported that he travelled well throughout his debut race. Just The Judge looks a great prospect and could be anything, I just have reservations at the odds, taking on colts and with Charlie Hills’ modest form overall.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Bit unlucky today, well, not really. Just a couple of runner-up main bets.

2:00 Newbury
73 points @ 2/1 (WH) Just The Judge*

The form of her race has a solid look to it but I find Charlie Hills to be poison with shortish favourites and they don’t always progress as expected. Stable has had a quiet season really.

I will stick with Excess Knowledge, who was added to the Racing Post Trophy entries within the last couple of days, so I am assuming he has been showing them something.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Yes that is the horse it is one i was thinking about.What you think of this horse

I haven’t seen the race yet, just read the report. I am a little surprised that they would start off at a mile and then drop back to 7f. I would have thought that he would be more of a stayer than a miler next year. Will watch him next time for sure.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Thanks for clarifying. Will record ATR around then.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Sadly, the winner is not in the Poll.

Great Heavens. Will love the trip and as long as the ground has cut in it I think she will see off this bunch of mediocre colts.

Totally agree (although I do think Camelot is far from mediocre).

The bunch in general are mediocre, Camelot is the best of them but I am very worried about the lack of collateral form forthcoming. He has a racecourse gallop tomorrow at Leopardstown and Attheraces said they will have cameras there. Funnily enough their website stated that this will be before racing but earlier on today on the live show it was said that he would work between the first and second race on the card. Either way, I will try to see it, although I often feel there is little to be learned from these workouts.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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If you’re so knowledgeable just turn the sound off. I actually like someone telling me what’s going on, even if they do get it wrong sometimes. Which obviously makes me pretty dim I guess….

If you are watching a race containing a runner you have money on you only need to focus on the one horse. It is different if you are just casually looking in with no particular interest in any one runner and the guidance of a skilled commentator is then invaluable. Once MY horse is "Out with the washing", I can be watching Dickinson’s Real Deal before the winner reaches the line LOL.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Gord did you see winning debut by ASHDAN trained by Gosden win at
Newmarket he looks a smart horse. same trainer had another debut winner at Sandown as well forget name of that horse i have now but both look intresting prospects.

Was that Excess Knowledge you are thinking about? He won half a length from a stable companion over a mile. I note that he is entered at Newbury on Saturday in the race over 7f (Frankie is booked to ride) that was once the Washington Singer stakes. He also holds a Royal Lodge entry. Mark Johnston’s Steeler is also entered on Saturday but I don’t see a jockey for him.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Born to Sea?

Still only a maiden win to his name but often tipped and thrashed at odds on by Famous Name on Sunday past.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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It doesn’t bother me who is presenting the racing. The most important people in the equation are the camera men and commentator, although I can manage without the latter if necessary.

Most of the build up is made up of facts we already know, duff tipping from the pundits and the spectacle of someone trying to pass a guest jockey or trainer through the mangle in a vain attempt to wring any worthwhile information out regarding a horse’s chance. I once read that Jockeys and Trainers are only exceeded by Politicians in the ability to talk without actually saying anything. Watching Richard Hannon senior on C4 a couple of weeks ago ducking and diving questions regarding the pecking order of his 2 year old string was tedious and irritating, more so because he had already countered descriptions of a workmanlike performance by Toronado by declaring to The Racing Post that he might well be their 2000 Guineas horse next season. Why he couldn’t have just repeated or expanded on that to help the interviewer out and inform viewers who hadn’t perhaps read the piece was beyond me.

I would honestly rather cut the grass between races and let whoever waffle on the usual verbal Dihoryahhighhey

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Sadly, the winner is not in the Poll.

Great Heavens. Will love the trip and as long as the ground has cut in it I think she will see off this bunch of mediocre colts.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

I don’t think you can use Born To Sea as a reliable yardstick. The horse has some soundness and consistency issues and can’t be guaranteed to produce the same level of performance from one race to the next.

Add in that Camelot beat him in the Irish Derby in spite of non-ideal conditions and running somewhat flat. With all of this in mind, Born To Sea’s defeat seems irrelevant.

It may well turn out that way but there isn’t anything else being put forward to give Camelot’s form any real merit.

It seems a bit odd that such an inconsistent and unsound mule as Born to Sea should go off odds on favourite for Sunday’s race. Punters eh? Mugs or what.

There seems to be an incredible amount of faith in Camelot still being the next Pegasus. I think he has a lot to prove at what will probably be plenty short enough odds.

"Duffman has a bad feeling about this"

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Three things we learned here:-

1.Golden Lilac is not as good as was previously thought

2.William Buick couldn’t pick S..t from Shinola

3.Frankel is GOD

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Excellent post Eclipse, you certainly know breeding.

If you’re thinking about the 2000 Guineas Steve… Whether or not (probably not) Reckless Abandon stays the mile, I’d be concerned about his temperament. Habit of wandering under pressure is now definitely not greeness and it may well get worse. There’s also a question mark about whether Clive Cox’s horses are at their best in early May. Although did well with his last Guineas horse, Xtension finishing 4th to Makfi. Xtension now races in top quality races in Hong Kong.

I am thinking about him for the Guineas but I like a contender for that race to have had one race at 5f at most before stepping up to 6f, as it helps to convince that they are not just a precocious sprinting type of animal. I heard before his second run that this horse was a bit of a headcase. I’d certainly like some encouragement that he might grow out of that sooner, rather than later. Reckless made a winning debut on 19th May and that offers encouragement that he might come to hand in time for the 2000G. It would be nice to see Clive Cox land a big one and break the procession of Ballydoyle inmates.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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Deliciously appropriate that the final winner on the card was MINCE

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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There is a limited amount of information available. The sire Exchange Rate is a son of Danzig, his best progeny have trained on so there is a reasonable expectation that he will be ok in that respect. The question of stamina for the Guineas must have some doubt as the damsire is Efisio, whose best broodmare products have excelled at distances short of a mile. However the second dam Argent du Bois is a son of Silver Hawk who is a pretty good stamina influence. She produced Ticker Tape from a mating with Royal Applause who won the American Oaks having raced in the UK as a juvenile. She has also produced a number of less talented animals from subsequent matings with Royal Applause but they showed enough stamina to suggest that Silver Hawk had helped.
Reckless Abandon has an older half brother by El Prado who has been placed over 9f on soft in Ireland this summer. El Prado is a stronger stamina influence than Exchange Rate and Jumbo Prado gets his grey colouring from his sire so Reckless Abandon is unlikely to stay as well as him.
If Clive Cox runs him over 7f this season it will probably be quite informative but the Morny and Middle Park look good targets at the moment. I would say that a mile would be the maximum distance he would want to travel and hitting the rising ground coming out of the dip may well find him out.

Thanks very much for this. Very informative.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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