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A strong looking renewal despite and probably because of the absence of Frankel.
Cityscape was impressive in Meydan over 9f then appeared not to get home in the Eclipse. He has shown an ability to handle soft conditions and his stamina could be a factor if there is a true gallop.
Excelebration looks a short price on what he has achieved this season. His best winning form was in the Hungerford over 7f last year and there is a suspicion that a true run mile stretches his stamina.
Tin Horse won the Poulains last year and showed a return to form last time out, however on the balance of form there appear several with stronger claims.
Indomito appeared to run a career best last time out but still needs to find more than a stone to trouble some of these at their best.
Golden Lilac won the D’Ispahan in the manner of a good horse, then got stuck in the mud at Newmarket before being lulled to sleep by Elusive Kate last time out. She really needs a strong gallop at a mile to show her best.
Immortal Verse is seeking to repeat last year’s win. Her form has rather tailed away since that victory and her reappearance over course and distance was hardly encouraging. However that was a prep race for this and if her trainer has sweetened her up she is the one they have to beat.
Moonlight Cloud won as she was entitled to last week, she is clearly a very good filly at extended sprint distances, whether she would figure in a strongly run affair must be questionable.
Most Improved got the run of the race at Ascot and showed that he is best ridden up with the pace. After experiencing an unpleasant passage in the Prix du Jockey Club, he is likely to be prominent again.
Caspar Netscher has proved himself a game and genuine performer but one with limitations. The flat track will suit and he should run better than in the Jean Prat though. Last year he flourished at this time of year although the suspicion remains he would be better at slightly shorter.
Fallen for You showed good acceleration off a strong pace to win at Ascot. WIlliam Buick has chosen her over Elusive Kate which is an interesting choice.
Elusive Kate was given a shrewd ride to make all last time out. This field has more depth and she is unlikely to be able to dominate as she did there.Looking at the race it is not easy to identify where the pace might come from. Maxime Guyon was outridden by William Buick last time and ought to make Golden Lilac’s superior stamina count in this better contest. There is also a suspicion that those behind Elusive Kate were being ridden with this race in mind. I am in danger of following M. Fabre’s filly over a cliff but after 2 reversals she looks very tempting at 10/1.
Excelebration for the win. He’s a model of consistency and surely he’ll ridden with more restraint … then I think he’ll have enough firepower to handle this lot in the latter stages.
Off on me hols tomorrow so won’t see it but I think Excel will win if the ground is not too soft. I agree with EF that he is better over 7f but I still think he is the second best miler on the planet. My ew money would be on Most Improved.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I can’t see Ecxelebration winning this.
I reckon his 1 1/2 length defeat of Rio de La Plata showed him up for what he really is, a Group 2 horse.
He won the Prix Du Moulin well enough but there wasn’t a true Group 1 horse in the race and the Group 2 Hungeford he won was very poorly contested beating the moderate Beacon Lodge. Musir the 3rd was well beaten in a group 3 recently so the form isn’t great. His Group 2 form in Germany wouldn’t win a York Handicap
So despite chasing Frankel round racecourses this is a step up in class for the O’Brien horse because outside of of running up his backside or 4 urlongs none o his form comes near to Group 1 class.
Sure, he’s a nice horse but 2/1 or this is a joke.
Moonlight Cloud on the other hand looks the real deal.
Her defeats of Whizz Kid and Society Rock get get the juices flowing and it was plain to see at Ascot this filly will be even better over 7 furlongs as she is at 6-6 1/2furlongs.
This filly is a class act and her 2nd to Black Caviar reads a lot better than Excel trailing in miles behind Frankel even is the Aussie Filly was below par.
With a bit of luck she’ll hit 5 or thereabouts on the machine and that is one helluva price for a horse that should be half those odds. I think she’ll cruise through this race and wins as she likes
Moonlight Cloud (Nap)
Three things we learned here:-
1.Golden Lilac is not as good as was previously thought
2.William Buick couldn’t pick S..t from Shinola
3.Frankel is GOD
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Thanks Andy – it has got off to a good start reading this! Steve – Frankel is bigger than God! One woukd hope that any remaining doubters will be silenced but i doubt it! HGM – come on! You are better than that!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Well done Excelebration a well deserved and long awaited win.
If Frankel had turned up he would have been looking at the famous Derryair again, but this was a well deserved win and on merit.
This horse has been disappointed so many times he must have thought he’d been let loose.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Apart from his racecourse debut Excelebration has won every race he has ever contested except when facing Frankel.
It was a messy race without a proper gallop as often happens in France. Whilst not taking anything away from the winner it was not a truly run mile contest.
It is clear that Golden Lilac needs a stronger gallop over a mile in order to settle, she is probably a 10f horse, her pedigree suggests as much.
Excelebration beat Caspar Netscher by 2 lengths, it is not as good a performance as beating Rio de la Plata in the Moulin last year. The Hungerford and QEII were both superior to that. He is probably the 2nd best miler in Europe but he is still not as good as he was last year.Yesterday’s race merely proves the dangers in the literal translation of the form of falsely run races, whatever the level of competition.
It was a messy race without a proper gallop as often happens in France. Whilst not taking anything away from the winner it was not a truly run mile contest.
It is clear that Golden Lilac needs a stronger gallop over a mile in order to settle, she is probably a 10f horse, her pedigree suggests as much.
Excelebration beat Caspar Netscher by 2 lengths, it is not as good a performance as beating Rio de la Plata in the Moulin last year. The Hungerford and QEII were both superior to that. He is probably the 2nd best miler in Europe but he is still not as good as he was last year.Yesterday’s race merely proves the dangers in the literal translation of the form of falsely run races, whatever the level of competition.
Surely a better way of putting it EF, is Excelebration did not
need to be
at his best to win fairly easily. In my opinion Excelebration is still capable of running to his best
However, a line through Cityscape and Rio De La Plata suggests yesterday’s win by Excelebration was better than last year’s French win.
Casper Netcher either improved or (I believe) flattered by being a
sprinter
-miler in a slowly run mile. Having more
speed
to cope with the slower pace than many out and out
milers
in the race. Moonlight Cloud (the other sprinter-miler) would’ve gone close with a clear run.
Certainly would not dismiss yesterday’s form in other races. Just reduce both Elusive Kate (flattered by making the running in a slowly run affair) and Casper Netcher. And add a bit to Moonlight Cloud. Golden Lilac’s temperament is getting in the way of her ability, if she goes up in trip then the pace is likely to be even slower, so pulling harder.
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