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Would be even more foolish to think Lloyd Webber would voice an opinion on the destination of his horse. The owners manager may have one or two things to say but more than likely I’d expect he’s just an interrupter for pass on anything back to the owner, I might be wrong. Frankie would want to ride the horse in 7 races a week if he’d have the choice. No this will be Gosden’s decision’s and that alone.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
GT and anyone else who liked Too Darn Hot, as PP are 5/2 about him now + still under antepost rules…i am tempted to have a saver on him at 5/2 due to him being the real unknown factor in the race. My bet on Confiding looks a nice price now. However, if TDH does end up showing up, he will probably shorten again.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Originally well backed in to Evens, then drifted out to 5/2. That’s a massive drift! Trouble with these prices is nobody knows what the probability of running actually is. Probability of running makes up most of the odds available, being by far the most likely winner matters little when the horse is a probable non-runner. Hate to be obvious but if the decision has almost been made then 20/1 won’t be a value price. In your situation I’d stick to your good price, Jack; until the final decs and then take TDH at a shorter price. Or… Market activity in this kind of case tells its own story. If wanting to save at ante-post prices you could wait, keeping a close eye on the market. ie Only betting TDH if there’s a positive market move across more or less the whole board.
Value Is EverythingLike Jack, I’m delighted with the way the betting has gone since my bet at 7/1 on Confiding.
The favourite is drifting as though he won’t run whereas ours is being backed to go well on Saturday (unlike last time at Goodwood when he drifted).
I can’t remember the market that well for Confiding LTO- did he drift through the week? Wasn’t it on the day?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Overall quality of the field must be the best two year old Group 3 for a long time.
Value Is EverythingIt is GT…pity my nice price on Confiding has taken a hit….
Surely, TDH will drift a little at some stage..
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Surely, TDH will drift a little at some stage..
I agree the Evens and 11/10 might drift out, Jack. Doubt Paddy Power/Betfair’s 11/8 will, or if it does won’t be by much. Especially as bookmakers are so wide apart at the moment it’s possible to back every horse at best prices and make a profit whoever wins.
Value Is EverythingAs a side note, i’ve just noticed Gosden had Kingman win this on his second start of his life…
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Dunkerron for me
A big ask for TDH to run 108+ 2nd time out, dunkerron although more experienced was ahead of confiding who looked green, so that gap could very well close,
Ill start with dunkerron @8/1 May well have another 1 or 2 against the fav on the day depending on prices
Useless headline in the Sporting Life website. It says that Richard Kingscote is “Relishing” the ride on Arthur Kitt but reading the article actually reveals that the jockey is pretty negative, stating that the horse really needs to up his game and has a chance of being right out of it early doors. The general gist is that the horse needs further. The trainer did hint at the stamina requirement long term, so why enter up at 7F then?
Watan is out again early enough and I sometimes wonder with Hannon. He was bullish about the colt last time and he was second. Can’t he sit on it for a while and make plans? I don’t like quick returns to the track for horses you think might make a good sort at 3YO. This looks a tougher race and where does another defeat leave the horse moving forward?
Victory Command has tons of experience after seven runs. He’s won 4 of them but after looking so-so earlier, it seemed that stepping up in trip was the making of him. He’s won his last three but two of those were egg and spoon races at Beverley, one of those races saw him 1/14 Fav. For me, his chance lies solely on his latest start, when winning in Listed class. He seemed to get an easy lead that day and was 4 lengths clear of his field before they closed him down to half that margin. I am underwhelmed by his OR of 103 and will find it cripplingly depressing if he wins this.
Dunkerron is very decent, if not a potential star for next year. He finished ahead of Confiding last time when they ran behind Dark Vision, the horse that sent Mark Johnston off on one like a man with two willies and a sack of Viagra. More exposed than the reopposing Confiding but he’s twice the odds of the Meade horse in places and that trainer seems to be like a toddler on blue Smarties in terms of hyperactivity.
Confiding was compared as “Similar” in abilty to Advertise before the Vintage Stakes and I backed him myself, mostly because there were several in the race that I was very negative on. In my preview for the race I wrote that I would have backed Dark Vision had he been trained by anyone other than Mark Johnston, with the result then becoming inevitable. Mark Johnston is very excited by Dark Vision but this race will go a good way to either justifying, or perhaps dampening the enthusiasm.
Too Darn Hot has hokey-cokeyed his way in and out of the race if we judge the betting patterns but now that he IS in, will he be shaking it all about? He’s actually the lowest rated horse in the race at the moment and at the odds he is now, they are taking it as if he is more or less certain to bridge the gap and add more on top. He is dropping in trip, which is a bit of a pet hate of mine when I have backed a horse for the Derby. My thinking is that if a horse is going to go the Derby then start at 7F and work to the mile afterwards. Not keen on them doing it the other way.
If Too Darn Hot wins this well, he should be pretty short for the Derby if Gosden makes the right sort of comments, yet a win at this 7F makes the colt a big Guineas player and he’ll be skinny there as well. We have seen Gosden’s poor record at Newmarket in May and that would hardly be the best kickoff for Epsom. The inevitable stamina questions for Epsom will also emerge for the horse if he is fast enough for a mile Classic.
From a selfish point of view I would like to see Too Darn Hot win but ironically I don’t want him to do it in the style of a horse unlikely to stay a mile and a half.
It’s all ifs and buts and long way off. As raised earlier, the family haven’t taken their Racing so well. Surely if Too Darn Hot wins this, he will have only one more race this season?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Too Darn Hot is a poor price if making a direct form comparisson, but has only had one run and yet to have the opportunity to show what he can do in Group company. So is open to more improvement than any rival and could hardly have been more impressive in winning his maiden by an easy 7 lengths. Then there’s his superb breeding. Full brother to both Dar Re Mi (won her first four and then unlucky in running 3rd, beaten 1/2 length in Group 1 Prix De L’Opera) and Lah Ti Dar (unbeaten in three starts, putting up a Group 1 class performance in a listed race and now well fancied for Arc or St Leger). So the family are well known for both their top class ability and particularly good starts to their careers. As my Derby bet suggests, I have little doubt Too Darn Hot will make in to a top class racehorse and once breeding is taken in to account isn’t a bad price at odds-against Saturday. However, he is coming back in distance and there may be better value elsewhere. Saver material @ 11/8.
Victory Command put up an improved performance in the listed Pat Eddery Stakes, but got the run of the race – getting a soft lead and has had plenty of racing; unlikely to improve much more.
Arthur Kitt won the Chesham through stamina and later on in the season will probably need further or at least a very strongly run race here. Although Derby winning sire Camelot also won the Guineas seems a stamina influence. I’ve laid a bit of 6/1.
Goodwood Champagne form had Dunkerron 2nd 1 3/4 lengths behind winner Dark Vision, but that winning margin flatters him. Had a much easier run through than winner and better also than 1 1/4 lengths 3rd Confiding who reopposes here. On Goodwood ability the two should’ve been closer together then… and the King horse has had 5 races to Meade’s 2. So although Dunkerron’s was having his first start at 7f and there’s an arguement is still unexposed at that trip; I personally believe may not show as much improvement as Confiding. Latter showed a lot of improvement in one go from Newbury debut to Goodwood Group 3. Good chance here if maintaining anything like that rate of progression. Taken 11/2 as a main bet.
One I like most at the prices though, Watan. Beaten favourite in the Acomb, but again that only his second run. Winner there Phoenix Of Spain (imo at least a Group 2 horse in the making) having his third run and possibly had the best of the ground against the rail. Watan wider, travelled easily through the race and with that experience sure to do him good (mentally more than physically) should progress again here. Quick reappearance not ideal, but price makes it imo worth overlooking. Another main bet @ 8/1.
(Prices shortened since advised on DLAP thread Gingers Winners)
Value Is EverythingWatan is out again early enough and I sometimes wonder with Hannon. He was bullish about the colt last time and he was second. Can’t he sit on it for a while and make plans? I don’t like quick returns to the track for horses you think might make a good sort at 3YO. This looks a tougher race and where does another defeat leave the horse moving forward?
Agree Steve
They took their time with him initially because he had sore shins then run him 3 times in a short space of time.
Hannon contradicts himself in saying he thinks he could be the real deal yet also says we are going to have plenty of fun with him.
Toronado himself was by High Chaparral and both improved with age, although Toronado won every race at 2 y/o he certainly was a better horse at 3.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Vast majority of horses are better at three than two, especially those like Toranado with only three runs at two. Put up one of his best performances on reappearance at three in the Craven, on only fourth career start. Giving 3 lbs and beating Havana Gold 4 lengths. So found pretty much his level fairly early in his career and did not “improve with age”. Won the Queen Anne by 3/4 length from Verrazano at four but his form not as good; Verrazano was no Dawn Approach.
High Chaparral won the Racing Post at two (one of the best two year olds) and won the Derby in June at three; by 2 lengths from Hawk Wing, with 12 back to the third. That form right up with High Chaparral’s very best. ie Showed great consistency afterwards, however he too actually reached his level of ability fairly early and did not “improve with age”.
Watan’s dam Shotgun Gulch reached her peak in winning a Grade 1 by April of her three year old career. So she did not “improve with age” either.
Horses that reach their peak early in their careers have an advantage of being at that peak for longer. It doesn’t do early maturing horses any harm to race before more horses (later maturing types) come on the scene. This may be a good two year old Group 3 for this time of year, but Hannon wasn’t to know that when entering. Two year old Group races generally require a lower level of form than 3yo+ Group races. So if Watan is fit and well it makes sense to run.
Value Is EverythingThey took their time with him initially because he had sore shins then run him 3 times in a short space of time.
Hannon contradicts himself in saying he thinks he could be the real deal yet also says we are going to have plenty of fun with him.Surely makes sense not to run the horse when he’s got sore shins and to run when he has not got sore shins? If waiting until later on in the season he might have sore shins or some other injury then and so won’t be able to run.
That was an interview given before the Acomb Stakes, isn’t the trainer allowed to change his mind by using all available evidence?
And anyway, they could “have plenty of fun with him” even if “the real deal”. You’re putting your own meaning to those words. I see no “contradiction”.O’Brien’s Ten Sovereigns looks to be having a quick reappearance in a Group 3 after an impressive debut. Does that mean he does not have Group 1 asperations for his horse?
Value Is Everything
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