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Martyn Meade’s race planner tweeted earlier that he thought Confiding was worth backing for Saturday’s race.
“He ran to 107 in the G2 Vintage at Goodwood and should turn form around with Dunkerron. Too Darn Hot way too short at 7-4 after winning a slowly- run novice.”
I would tend to agree, and there’s 7-1 about with PP. Oisin Murphy is jocked up already.
Too Darn Hot is obviously the hotpot in the race and looked mighty impressive on debut, however, he still has it to prove in proper company.
Dunkerron is a decent yardstick as well, but as Terry said, you’d hope Confiding could reverse the placings.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I wouldn’t call Too Darn Hot’s debut “slowly run”, they went a fair enough pace without being strong.
You’re probably right Jack, a strict comparisson of form wouldn’t give Too Darn Hot a 7/4 chance. But that bears no relation to his breeding! When assessing who the sire and dam are and above all who the mating has produced before… Even though as the form stands right now Too Darn Hot has a bit to find in order to beat the likes of Dunkerron and Confiding… – He’s very likely to find the necessary improvement. Already backed him for the Derby and imo TDH should be a short priced favourite for this.
Value Is EverythingIs Too Darn Hot a definite runner.?
Gosden said after debut he would not run him in group company next time outGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Probably reassessed the horse since he said that, Nathan. If TDH went for a non-group company race not much would take him on and he’d learn very little from the race.
Value Is EverythingGosden has trained both that came out of the dam
neither made it to the Oaks, I’d be taking the easy route personallyGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Martyn Meade was bullish about Confiding last time but the betting told another story as he went off at 8/1 despite stable confidence.
Martyn Meade is a bit like Clive Brittain used to be, in that the glass was never half empty/half full, rather pissing over the rim of the tumbler.
Confiding ran reasonably well last time and he beat home Van Beethoven and Cosmic Law, the two I was negative about on the day. Mark Johnston’s Dark Vision won and created excitement for the trainer but all too often for my liking the Johnston “Real Deal” horses tend to find a problem somewhere. Elarqam anyone?
Dark Vision could probably do Confiding winning this, since Getchagetchagetcha went to Deauville next time out and went off favourite for a Listed race, only tofinish plum last. Cosmic Law was out again in the Gimcrack and was 8th of the 9 runners, so not much to tickle the tastebuds there. Confiding has to reverse form with Dunkerron and it might be tight between the two here.
Arthur Kitt won at Royal Ascot and shapes as if 7F on soft may help him. It was faster going at the Royal meeting and it seemed as if further would help him in time. By Camelot, the best boost to his form came from Beyond Reason, who went to France the next twice and landed Gp3 and Gp2 races. She was rather allowed to dominate in the latter race, as so often seems to happen to these clueless French jockeys. I swear, if some of these guys had brains, they would still be Pommes Du Terre
Arthur Kitt may be underestimated here and I reckon 4/1 is more like it than Bet365’s 6/1 offering. He is 10 lbs higher than Too Darn Hot for now and it’s not as if he is fully exposed for all that Too Darn Hot has had only one start.
Coming to Too Darn Hot, I had a very speculative bet at 50/1 for the Derby before his debut. The breeding more or less guaranteed that a win would see him cut for Epsom. He should be OK at 7F with it being soft but I am not sure he will be a Guineas type. It looks as if they will campaign him with the Guineas in mind and despite the Derby entry, it will likely be after the Dante that we get any indication from the reticent Mr Gosden.
I probably won’t play in this, as I tend to avoid soft ground races in case it becomes a pure slog. I had reckoned on 6/4 for the red hot Gosden stable inmate. It was a weak race Too Darn Hot won last time but I reckoned an RPR of about 100 would come forth for the winner. 94 looked a bit tight and leaves him with ground to make up in theory. This looks a bit less than average opposition and I can see Gosden adding to his good record in the race.
Too Darn hot to beat Arthur Kitt for me and I can taste the 50/1 Champagne already at Epsom next June
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nathan, Frankie’s jocked up anyway!
GT, agree with the pedigree, they seem to always turn out very good. At the price though, i am happy enough to gamble on Confiding showing good improvement. Will take it each way in case Too Darn Hot is very good!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Marsh, who i presume is racing manager to ALW, says Too Darn Hot is no certainty to even run on Saturday, as they might wait for a novice race!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Too Darn Hot was 7/4 but that is gone and he’s averaging 11/10 now.
It seems like the backers reckon he’s going to run. Yet Gosden said two weeks ago:-
“We are not going to launch straight into Group company yet, as he doesn’t know enough about the world.”
Things can change of course but that seems a severe volte face within a fortnight.
I decided to play Arthur Kitt after reading that this race has been the plan since late June. Apparently the owners live close to the track and have a box at Sandown,so it’s ideal for them. The trainer explained that the horse has done well to win at 6F and then over 7F on quick ground, as he really needs a mile now.
If it is soft this will probably play as a stayers contest and at 6/1 Arthur Kitt seemed a fair play. The trainer says he won’t race the colt too much this year.
Arthur Kitt 6/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I have backed two at relatively big prices for this GOOD FORTUNE 16/1 Charlie Appleby flying at the mo!
And GLORIOUS LOVER at 20/1 looked like a stayer last time without getting near the winner.
The market has reacted a fair bit to the quotes made by Marsh- shortening a few up in behind Too Darn Hot + skybet offering 2s for TDH…
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Too Darn Hot is 5/2 in places now. Anyone who took 7/4 must be apoplectic at this stage.
Confiding seems best backed and Arthur Kitt reasonably steady.
Lah Ti Dar is apparently skipping the Leger now, after being 7/2 for the race.
What is the crack here? Horses going into races, money coming for them and then not running. It would look shady to the outsider but then there are a lot of lemmings in the backing community.
Hopefully Arthur Kitt is not rhyming slang
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
still 6s about on confiding with racebets if anyone is keen on it.
Strong money for Beatboxer, i presume on the basis Frankie may ride?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Too Darn Hot out to 5/2
Probably reassessed the reassessment eh Ginge.?Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
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