[stevecaution]

Well done getting 3/1 MOM.

Veracious ended up my main Guineas play this year but she was pulled out leaving a recovery mission on Laurens. Laurens got pipped and then won the next twice and to add insult to injury Veracious finished ahead of Billesdon Brook both times they have met.

Despite good efforts this year Veracious remains a maiden winner only and once they get odds-on in places it is a scenario I am not keen on.

They have been very patient with the Gosden horse and she was shaping up nicely when last seen. She could be the one to pose most threat but at 3/1 the value has been obtained already. The good news is that I am not on and that’s a huge Jonah off her back.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Vange is interesting Bobby. I thought he might have run in the Gimcrack after his good effort at Royal Ascot.

He is entered in the Derby but that would look unlikely as he is yet to exceed 6F on the racecourse.

He is the Dam’s best by quite some way thus far, as the second best ended upover the sticks (Ronnie Baird)

I see no other entries for him apart from the Derby one and I am surprised he’s not been out again since June.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Too Darn Hot is 5/2 in places now. Anyone who took 7/4 must be apoplectic at this stage.

Confiding seems best backed and Arthur Kitt reasonably steady.

Lah Ti Dar is apparently skipping the Leger now, after being 7/2 for the race.

What is the crack here? Horses going into races, money coming for them and then not running. It would look shady to the outsider but then there are a lot of lemmings in the backing community.

Hopefully Arthur Kitt is not rhyming slang

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Mark Johnston is long overdue a Diamond in the lorryload of bread. Hell, even butter would be nice for a change.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Danceteria is the best backed horse in the race. Best price 16/1 now.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Too Darn Hot was 7/4 but that is gone and he’s averaging 11/10 now.

It seems like the backers reckon he’s going to run. Yet Gosden said two weeks ago:-

“We are not going to launch straight into Group company yet, as he doesn’t know enough about the world.”

Things can change of course but that seems a severe volte face within a fortnight.

I decided to play Arthur Kitt after reading that this race has been the plan since late June. Apparently the owners live close to the track and have a box at Sandown,so it’s ideal for them. The trainer explained that the horse has done well to win at 6F and then over 7F on quick ground, as he really needs a mile now.

If it is soft this will probably play as a stayers contest and at 6/1 Arthur Kitt seemed a fair play. The trainer says he won’t race the colt too much this year.

Arthur Kitt 6/1

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Pascal Bary is a rare visitor to these shores. His last runner in the UK was Billabong, who was third in a Listed race in 2014.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

King Of Comedy is swerving the Solario and Too Darn Hot is favourite for the race for the Gosden stable.

Someone told me a week ago that King Of Comedy was likely to run in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster but he wasn’t 100% sure.

I’d start getting a bit worried about King Of Comedy if we don’t see him soon, as this is entering the area of the season when you want to see them again.

I haven’t been happy with the way Quorto’s form has been working out. For a horse with a rating of 114, it is unsettling to see 16 runs and zero wins from his two wins.

Ten Sovereigns made a terrific start but the sires runners thus far have not been progressing with their races.

Anthony Van Dyck lacks the pace for a Guineas to my eyes and is a silly price.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Martyn Meade was bullish about Confiding last time but the betting told another story as he went off at 8/1 despite stable confidence.

Martyn Meade is a bit like Clive Brittain used to be, in that the glass was never half empty/half full, rather pissing over the rim of the tumbler.

Confiding ran reasonably well last time and he beat home Van Beethoven and Cosmic Law, the two I was negative about on the day. Mark Johnston’s Dark Vision won and created excitement for the trainer but all too often for my liking the Johnston “Real Deal” horses tend to find a problem somewhere. Elarqam anyone?

Dark Vision could probably do Confiding winning this, since Getchagetchagetcha went to Deauville next time out and went off favourite for a Listed race, only tofinish plum last. Cosmic Law was out again in the Gimcrack and was 8th of the 9 runners, so not much to tickle the tastebuds there. Confiding has to reverse form with Dunkerron and it might be tight between the two here.

Arthur Kitt won at Royal Ascot and shapes as if 7F on soft may help him. It was faster going at the Royal meeting and it seemed as if further would help him in time. By Camelot, the best boost to his form came from Beyond Reason, who went to France the next twice and landed Gp3 and Gp2 races. She was rather allowed to dominate in the latter race, as so often seems to happen to these clueless French jockeys. I swear, if some of these guys had brains, they would still be Pommes Du Terre

Arthur Kitt may be underestimated here and I reckon 4/1 is more like it than Bet365’s 6/1 offering. He is 10 lbs higher than Too Darn Hot for now and it’s not as if he is fully exposed for all that Too Darn Hot has had only one start.

Coming to Too Darn Hot, I had a very speculative bet at 50/1 for the Derby before his debut. The breeding more or less guaranteed that a win would see him cut for Epsom. He should be OK at 7F with it being soft but I am not sure he will be a Guineas type. It looks as if they will campaign him with the Guineas in mind and despite the Derby entry, it will likely be after the Dante that we get any indication from the reticent Mr Gosden.

I probably won’t play in this, as I tend to avoid soft ground races in case it becomes a pure slog. I had reckoned on 6/4 for the red hot Gosden stable inmate. It was a weak race Too Darn Hot won last time but I reckoned an RPR of about 100 would come forth for the winner. 94 looked a bit tight and leaves him with ground to make up in theory. This looks a bit less than average opposition and I can see Gosden adding to his good record in the race.

Too Darn hot to beat Arthur Kitt for me and I can taste the 50/1 Champagne already at Epsom next June

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Someone other than me must be on Danceteria.

33/1 with Paddy Power yesterday and now 14/1 with them.

Bet365 are 25/1 on Oddschecker and Boylesports 20/1. He’s generally 16/1 now.

I hope some of the forum members got the 33/1. I’m well pleased, even if it’s highly unlikely he will win. It’s a cheaper bet at least at double carpet. The prices will probably collapse once the weights are published.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

DANCETERIA 33/1

The Menuisier gelding has come from nowhere, since running 9th of 10 to recent Voltegeur winner, Old Persian, in an April Handicap off 79, he’s moved forward winning his next 4 races and rising to 103 in the ratings.

Dropped to 77 for his run behind the Godolphin horse, he won next time, rising to 82 in the handicap. Another win saw Danceteria given 88 by the assessor but he did the business again and earned 93 for his five length win. Any thought that the handicapper was on top was dispelled as he quickened away to win more than 3 lengths in easy fashion and the handicapper seemed to take a dim view and thumped him with a 10 lb rise to 103.

The rise actually helped the horse to get a run in the big one and I feel he has sufficient stamina, yet a telling burst at the business race, which can allow him to swoop in the closing stages.

A ridiculously trick handicap where you need big odds to be playing for sanity’s sake if nothing else.

This is his most recent win and it’s a quality turn of speed he shows. He’s up to 103, so life is tougher but he’s kept on improving and looked potentially a group horse in the making if he keeps the upward curve on track.

http://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/video/20180811/2798640/16704129

At 33/1 I felt he was a good starting point as a horse with plenty of plus points and not many negatives.

I am pleased enough with that and I reckon he must start much shorter if he lines up.

Go on you Dancer!

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

I think Roaring Lion had Poet’s Word well beaten off. If Poet’s Word had been nearer the action I feel Roaring Lion’s jockey would simply have held onto his mount longer. The way the Gosden horse quickened away left me with the impression that Poet’s Word will always struggle to match that weapon.

Ground is a big factor as Nathan said. I felt 3/1 might look big on the day for Roaring Lion.

Verbal Dexterity was a bit disappointing in group 3 company today. I am not sure he’s up to this sort of level and I just can’t back anything trained by Jim Bolger. He seems no more than a bit player these days.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Klute was never going a yard today and looked beaten after a furlong with every horse who ran behind him last time reversing the form. Commentator mentioned before the race that he was puzzled by the absence since his debut win. Klute went backwards whatever the reason. Not the first Harrington colt to disappoint next time.

In the end Anthony Van Dyck won it but he was pushed along from some way out. It was stamina that won the day as he reeled in Christmas by half a length.

Anthony Van Dyck was given the same rating as last time on 111 with Christmas up 9 lbs to 110 and the Elephant in the room is Joey O’Brien’s Mohawk on 104, up 26 Lbs from last time. We’ll see.

10/1 for the Guineas is of no interest to me. I don’t think The Dyck has enough toe. The review said that the fav for both classics looked to be crying out for a mile but the National Stakes is his next target.

Christmas is certainly progressing nicely for Kris and nothing wrong with going down narrowly today. I thought the Fav was in trouble.

Zagitova was weak in the betting and a bit disappointing. It looked like Peach Tree was making the pace for her and I was disappointed with Peach Tree, as I felt she might improve and place here. Not impressed with that race really.

In the opener Fresno was never sighted and Circus Maximus was weak as a kitten, out to 5/1. I noticed right away that Circus Maximus was being bustled along very early doors and never really going the pace. He stayed on to be fifth and needs further. Time and distance will see him improve and I would not be surprised to see him win something decent one day. Fresno was bitterly disappointing in 18th place.

I was going to have a fiver on I Am Superman purely because it is an REM song with an excerpt in Japanese that came from a string-pull Godzilla doll at the beginning. In the end I Am Superman ran really well in second. Later I was going to put a few quid on Fannie By Gaslight (For the crack) and then didn’t bother. She sluiced home at 10/1 by eight lengths, on her first attempt on soft/heavy, with either the ground, or that combined to the extra 2F, seeing her record a huge PB today. The jockey certainly didn’t have to wait for a split on Fannie By Gaslight

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Every single time a horse you gave backed runs below YOUR expectations, there is ALWAYS an excuse.

It’s never a case that you just picked a wrong un’

Whatever.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Circus Maximus is a sea of blue on Oddschecker at about 2/1. Fresno is on the drift and out to 7/1.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Fresno is an interesting newcomer tomorrow, out of moonlight cloud, by galileo, doesnt get much better than that!

I noticed that Ryan is on Circus Maximus though. Not quite the dream breeding of Fresno but by Galileo out of decent filly Duntle isn’t bad. Duntle’s first foal, he is entered in the Dewhurst and Derby, whereas Fresno holds Beresford and Derby entries.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Ten Sovereigns was awesome today, he seemed a lot more forward than the Galileo’s Aidan runs and that would be the only question as a son of No Nay Never. Quite a few of the No Nay Never progeny have not built on their first run and gone on to be beaten once or more in several cases eg:-

Land Force, The Irish Rover, Servalan, Cosmic Law, North Wind, who have been his better progeny thus far.

Ten Sovereigns seems the potential leader of the pack so far but it might be unwise to feel Ten Sovereigns will automatically go on like a Galileo youngster might.

Christmas is out tomorrow as well but it seems that Anthony Van Dyck is the second coming here. I have done Klute at 9/1, as I think that’s a crazy price. He beat the favourite last time and the race is working out well. Anthony Van Dyck has improved but the Harrington colt has not had the chance to prove himself again since and could be anything. He was more than four lengths ahead of the Derby favourite and while Anthony Van Dyck has improved to a much higher rating now, I would be surprised if the adjusted RPR’s of:-

Anthony Van Dyck 117
Christmas 111
Guaranteed 99
Klute 96
Mohawk 92
Could Be King 83

probe to be entirely reliable, given how lightly raced these are.

If Klute were Aidan’s horse and Ryan Moore selected him over Anthony Van Dyck, then what would the odds be?

Anthony Van Dyck may well win it of course but at 2/5 I wouldn’t play with the knowledge that he’s been beaten by another horse in the field who has yet to run again. If you play at 2/5 and lose it’s a hole dug in your bank, if you win, it doesn’t put the pot up far for leaner times. Play at 9/1 and it’s not denting the bank if you lose, but a win lets you have several more bets before the pot gets shaky.

Klute 9/1

In the fillies race I don’t feel Zagitova is much value at 7/4. She did it nicely last time but she needs to come forward again. At 16/1 I felt Peach Tree was worth a speculation. She badly needed her first start and Aidan said she “Came on lovely” to win next time. I thought she was going to splat them that day but she was still learning on the hoof there and didn’t win as far as I first thought she would. I just feel she may improve again and perhaps upset the jockey booking perception.

Peach Tree 16/1

That should mean that the two Favs hose up now.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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