2000 Guineas 2019

It’s a funny old Guineas market so far from the race. Some firms have an injured horse at 7/1 and two Group 3 winners at 6/1. One of those looks a sprinter and the other horse was considered more of a Derby sort after debuting at a mile.

Is it really a 6/4 shot that one of those three will win it?

You have your theories and I have mine. It matters to ME what horses do in the build up to certain races. If that doesn’t matter to you then fine. STOP trying to make out YOUR opinion is the correct one.

Even if it does pan out the way I felt, you will have a million excuses as to why I fluked it and that it should have gone the way YOU plotted it. That is an illness in the mind and it’s getting on more peoples tits than just mine. You’re a flawed individual Mark.

If you lived in my street I would have to take a restraining order out.

Stop slevering Ginger.

My post asked if the three horses combined in one firm’s book at 6/4 was value. Your reply was a load of nonsense that did not address my query at all.

I backed Calyx at 25/1 for the Guineas, I backed Too Darn Hot at 50/1 for the Derby and I backed Ten Sovereigns at 16/1 for the Commonwealth Cup.

I have them for THREE SEPERATE races and at 25/1, 50/1 and 16/1.

How does that remotely tie in to 6/1, 6/1 and 7/1 for the SAME RACE?

Read the post and answer it appropriately would be my advice. You are making an arse of yourself here. Even Ray Charles could see you are havering nonsense here.

You would be mad to back any of them for me for the guineas. I’m sure aiden and others have some top milers not yet seen on the track and with ballydoyle having had the virus you could well have one or two taking huge strides forward. Right now id Back ten sovereigns to win over six or seven and see where he goes for his first run at three. Avd looks a racing post horse to me and too darn hot the same. I don’t think any of them will win the Derby. Ten sovereigns looks the best 2yo this season. Watch the race again he was quickening again in the last furlong. I have a hunch he will stay a mile and if he does he will be some machine. Seems to be an aiden v Johnny g battle for next year already.

Jack, thank you for that ATR link. I know it is early days, but I at least got more encouragement yesterday.

Read the post and answer it appropriately would be my advice.

OK, let’s go through it bit by bit.

It’s a funny old Guineas market so far from the race. Some firms have an injured horse at 7/1 and two Group 3 winners at 6/1. One of those looks a sprinter and the other horse was considered more of a Derby sort after debuting at a mile. Am not necessarily disagreeing with you, it is a “funny old Guineas market”, just pointing out the reasons as I see them – whether you or anyone else agrees or disagrees with me is entirely up to you/them.

Two horses may be “Group 3 winners at 6/1”.. Am just saying that “It is the quality of performance judged by their rivals and how far they beat those rivals that matters; not the Group number”… Which is how both bookmakers and punters judge a market. Did not know I was saying anything controversial. If not agreeing with me on that individual point, Steve; then why did you back Calyx and Ten Sovereigns for the Group 1 2000 Guineas and Commonwealth Cup on the strength of (not even Group 3’s) impressive Maiden/Novice wins? Because on that evidence you too believe it is the quality of performance judged by their rivals and how far they beat those rivals that matters; not the name of race.

Although Calyx is “an injured horse”, as I said in my previous post: Calyx put up an outstanding performance – for a two year old in mid-June, particularly so considering it was soon after debut. And the injury is not expected to keep him from running at Newmarket. So imo can understand why some bookmakers have him where they do at that price. ie 7/1 would be a fair price right now if an odds compiler believes he’s highly likely to turn up and fulfil early potential. Not that I personally would back him now at that price and may lengthen depending on future news from the yard and the fact 10/1 is currently available elsewhere. Can also understand some bookmakers pushing him out to 10/1 if already believing the chances of fulfilling potential and/or turning up have lessened considerably (especially with Gosden now having a very viable alternative).

Yes, we both may think “One of those looks a sprinter and the other horse was considered more of a Derby sort after debuting at a mile” am just saying Ten Sovereigns put up an outstanding performance for early September so soon after his debut. So imo his position and price in the market is understandable. ie There are doubts about him staying a mile, but the standard of performance is so brilliant that if a bookmaker believed there is a fair chance of staying 6/1 would be fair. Although that price may lengthen with 10/1 being available elsewhere. Equally if a bookmaker believes he’ll probably not stay then he may offer 10/1. If any more than 10/1 I’d be backing him myself – and imo he’s unlikely to stay! So that price will probably shorten (many punters will believe Ten Sovereigns has brighter prospects of staying than I do).
As did Too Darn Hot put up such a brilliant performance in early September on only his second start and with a mating that’s produced nothing but top class horses. ie Even with doubts about TDH’s target and/or sufficient speed – the standard of performance was so good that he’s bound to be put in the Guineas market at between 6/1 and 8/1. Personally, although yesterday’s performance impressed me again and am glad I backed him for the Derby after his maiden – appears more Derby than 2000 G to me too… Didn’t settle for best part of a furlong and that’ll have to be worked on if he’s to stay at Epsom.

You may agree or disagree with me, up to you. But this is a discussion forum and is what I think about the three horses prices that YOU asked people’s opinions about.

You say: “My (your) post asked if the three horses combined in one firm’s book at 6/4 was value. Your (my) reply was a load of nonsense that did not address my query at all. In my opinion it did answer your question. Because as I said: “Calyx put up an outstanding performance for a two year old in mid-June, particularly so soon after debut. As did Ten Sovereigns for early September so soon after his debut. As did Too Darn Hot in early September on only his second start and with a mating that’s produced nothing but top class horses”. ie Personally I can understand bookmakers prices – because considering the quality of performance is so unusually brilliant by all three (for so early in the season) and their great potential – despite the soundness, stamina and speed doubts – none of the prices surprise me.

Yes, “one bookmaker” had all three prices “7/1, 6/1 and 6/1” and as what I have said suggests: If that “one bookmaker” believes Calyx will turn up and probably fulfil his potential… And believes Ten Sovereigns has a fair chance of staying the trip… And also believes Too Darn Hot will probably go for the Guineas/be fully effective at that trip… You and I may disagree (to varied degrees) with that one bookmaker, but imo if those are his opinions then (for him) he’d be right to have them all that short and is not surprising there are some bookies that do.

When you ask this question about one bookmaker/the shortest prices of 7/1, 6/1 and 6/1 combined odds of 6/4; “Is it really a 6/4 shot that one of those three will win it”?… why am I not allowed to ask this very similar question about the best prices in reply? Top prices of 8/1, 10/1 and 10/1. Has the threesome really got between a 9/4 and 5/2 chance? Not everything written by other people has to be about the small semi-subject you want it to and people can expand the subject matter.

…And I asked a civl question to you of: “What price would you offer each horse, Steve”? I’d genuinely be interested how you’d price it up, but if you do not want to answer is up to you. Just don’t bite my head off for asking!

You have your theories and I have mine. It matters to ME what horses do in the build up to certain races. If that doesn’t matter to you then fine. STOP trying to make out YOUR opinion is the correct one.

Even if it does pan out the way I felt, you will have a million excuses as to why I fluked it and that it should have gone the way YOU plotted it. That is an illness in the mind and it’s getting on more peoples tits than just mine. You’re a flawed individual Mark.

If you lived in my street I would have to take a restraining order out.

Maybe you could explain what I said to deserve any of that?

Of course you are free to have a different opinion, as I am allowed a different opinion to yours. Strange thing is this was a subject I thought we could massively agree on and I still believe we do! We both backed Calyx, Too Darn Hot and Ten Soveriegns ante-post for the same races and (I believe) primarily for the same reasons. Indeed I am very grateful to you, because without your posts would not have known some of the prices I got were available. You’re imo a good ante-post judge. We also have similar ideas about those three horses flaws. However, unfortunately we are both “flawed”, Steve.

Why do folks assume that TS wont stay a mile? Yes he may be by no nay never who was best over 6 furlongs but his dam stay at least a 12f. Horses get their stamina from the dams not the sires so im sure a mile will well be with in his reach. I still dont get why some folks assume just because a horse is fast he cant stay a certain trip, I remember the same about old dancing brave,oh hes to fast to stay the derby trip etc

Steve, probably not worth me butting in, but i think GT was just replying to this part of your post:

It’s a funny old Guineas market so far from the race. Some firms have an injured horse at 7/1 and two Group 3 winners at 6/1. One of those looks a sprinter and the other horse was considered more of a Derby sort after debuting at a mile.

Is it really a 6/4 shot that one of those three will win it?

with:

Some bookmakers will believe Calyx might not get there, some will believe Ten Sovereigns won’t stay and/or Too Darn Hot a middle distance performer; but those that do offer bigger prices. Top prices of 8/1, 10/1 and 10/1. Has the threesome really got between a 9/4 and 5/2 chance?

Not sure there’s anything wrong there?

If he’d left it at that it would have been fine Jack. That bit was fair enough but what has my backing the three horses, for three seperate races, at much bigger individual odds got to do with anything.

Ginger thinks that writing MORE makes your argument stronger, when it just doesn’t.

I asked if 6/4 was value for three horses combined in the Guineas betting from one firm. A simple yes or no, with or without arguement.