2000 Guineas 2019

Why do folks assume that TS wont stay a mile? Yes he may be by no nay never who was best over 6 furlongs but his dam stay at least a 12f. Horses get their stamina from the dams not the sires so im sure a mile will well be with in his reach. I still dont get why some folks assume just because a horse is fast he cant stay a certain trip, I remember the same about old dancing brave,oh hes to fast to stay the derby trip etc

Scat Daddy is similar in that he produces fast horses + that’s the worry with NNN.

Whilst you quote the dam staying much further, it’s correct, but she’s an Exceed + Excel mare and has speed on her page too…

To me, he races like a very fast horse and whilst it’s guess work i’d worry about him for next years 2000G. There’s no doubt AOB will try his utmost to get him there + win, he’s desperate for one of these fast USA bred horses to stamp themselves as a top sire.

He looks very exciting, he isn’t stopping at the line, but a sire that didn’t stay much more than 6F at his best combined with the way he races, i think he might just struggle. Can’t wait to find out.

Why do folks assume that TS wont stay a mile?

When considering an ante-post bet you need to ask yourself if the odds offered represent value for money?

The target race in this case is a mile and historically horses who do not run beyond 6F at two have a worse record by far than those who do.

The historical record of races they run in at two also becomes a consideration. O’Brien said the Middle Park is his main short term target this Autumn and that has been a “Kiss Of Death” race for a generation now.

Ten Sovereigns runs like a sprinter. If a horse is going to be prominent all the way it’s normally a very hard tactic to carry out over a mile. Many have tried and few have succeded from 6F horses trying to eke it out over the Guineas mile.

Ten Sovereigns was almost unheard of a little over a week ago, he’s won a maiden and a Group 3 that was so weak that he went off 1/3 Fav. That in itself asks questions about a horse now 8/1 for the Guineas but in Ten Sovereigns’ case we saw another horse go out and throw his hat into the ring with a performance rated five pounds higher and he has the same level of scope, plus he has already won over a mile and has a far more recognised sire. That horse was, of course, Too Darn Hot, who surely has less questions to answer after winning a much stronger looking race. Should those two colts be the same price for the Guineas?

Ten Sovereigns may prove in time to get a mile, it’s always possible, but the years have shown us that few manage it. I was extremely impressed by Ten Sovereigns on debut and could have taken him at 20/1 for the Guineas last week. The reason I did not do so was the sires progeny thus far largely failing to progress with their racing. It’s a small portion so far but it’s worth following what evidence we have thus far.

Fellow No Nay Never juvenile Servalan ran in the same race as Ten Sovereigns yesterday and she had run a promising race over 5F on debut, half a length 2nd, looking like 6F would suit. Somewhat surprisingly she went into Listed class on her next start and won at 6F fromhot favourite So Perfect and Skitter Scatter. Both of those fillies have won group races since and I felt Servalan might be an Albany contender for Royal Ascot. I felt they made an error in going for the Queen Mary over 5F and in finishing 6th there, Servalan ran 3 lbs below her previous form and I was wary of her yesterday as a bet at only 4/1 odds. She finished last and her rating of 76 was only a pound ahead of her debut effort.

Cosmic Law is another No Nay Never juvenile and he seemed to be going places based on his 6 length win in the Woodcote at Epsom. He was fancied by some going into the Coventry but he was 9th there, followed by a 6th and an 8th with a static and somewhat degraded rating level since Epsom.

No Nay Never won the Norfolk at Royal Ascot before going to France and landing the Morny. There was talk of the Guineas for him and he was prominent in the betting for it but that all seemed to be knocked on the head when he tried 7F on his comeback at 3YO in a Grade 2 contest where he was 2/5 Fav. He led that day but was headed going into the final furlong and was beaten. He wasn’t out again until October when he got back on track over 5 and a half furlongs, holding off the closing horse by half a length. His final race was at the Breeders Cup over 6 and a half furlongs, where he led entering the final furlong but was worn down late by Bobby’s Kitten, who I had backed purely for the cat connection.

No Nay Never lost twice in his six race career, both losses occured when he raced beyond 6F. Some of his juveniles have run as often as he did in his career already and one has already run 7 times. There are questions still to be answered on improvement with racing and perhaps longevity. The stamina prognosis for his stock is a long way away from being finalised.

It’s very early in the career of a stallion but it’s worth looking for clues and assessing the career of the horse himself to guide us on potential investments.

I felt Ten Sovereigns had less questions for the Commonwealth Cup and feel he is poor value for the Guineas at 8/1. I can understand the thinking of those who took him at 20/1 because if you were going to back him at all then you had to act before the second run. He wasn’t for me at 20/1 but good luck to those who fancied him, as he’s clearly got talent and nothing wrong with a 20/1 bet. At 8/1 AND with Too Darn Hot in the mix, however, I think he is appalling value.

Scat daddy produces a few middle distance types aswell jack, when the dams side has shown stamina or not, best example being the triple crown winner justify and mendelssohn also gets a mile well and his dams page has speed over it.

No nay never wasnt exactly bred to be a 5/6f horse either, i think you have to take into account the fact who we was trained by, thats probably half the reason he ended up being campaigned as he was. No denying his offspring seem to be mainly 5-6f animals so far,

Breeding suggests that 7f will be TS best trip, but if he wins over 7f as a 2yo, i dont think id have any issues with him getting a mile at 3

Guesswork, not involved in him atall, considered it the day he won his maiden as i had previously said, but like ive also said, theres more chance he ends up here, as opposed to the commonwealth cup, if he ran a decent race in this or won, or missed the first part of the season with a small setback or got out onto the turf late because of a harsh winter again like this year, the likelyhood of him being tried at 6f forst half of the season is slim, if you were taking 20/1 about him in the 2000g or the c/cup, youd have to go with the former for now until an official quote/or he visually did not stay. Because like everyone agrees, hes going to be aimed at this first.

Am finished, ham.

So much can happen between now and May 2019 and we are seeing some decent 2yo’s staking their claim to winning this race.
But so far even being blown away with the performance of To Darn Hot I’m sticking to my choice Al Hillalee 33/1 when I last looked.

The Godolphin operation is going from strength to strength and this season with magnificent Masar winning both the Craven and the Derby and Best Solution turning in a great effort to beat Defoe in Baden Baden today I think 2019 will be an even better year for the boys in blue, let’s face it their best horses don’t have to put up with our long cold winter they are shipped out to Dubai to train with the sun on their backs and come back to the UK in tip top condition.

@Steve and Ginge …I think you two need a quiet corner of the Forum to thrash things out..you’re both serial posters with lots to say and a lot of good info comes through but it’s getting pretty hard to sort through pages and pages of this and other Threads to find it and it could put a lot of other decent posters off putting their thoughts on here..have a thought for them.. Jac

Ginge ..nothing to apologise for you’re a good poster, not my way of finding winners but we are all different and that’s what I love about this Forum.

It all seems to be about Value and ratings.
Both yourself and Steve get really defensive about your choices and in this particular case I thought you were being respectful to Steve, asking his opinion etc., and didnt deserve the reply that you then reported but it got personal and you had no option but to respond.

Steve likes to come in very early doors on all the big races, sometimes he gets it right and others not like the majority of us most of our choices will hit the ground running, but undestand it’s thriill of the chase to spot the potential early…a long hard road with no guarantees.

Hope the Mods do come in and clear away the clutter on this particular Thread because it just tells us there is disharmony amongst certain posters and that only gives out negative vibes to our new posters who might be put off and leave the Forum.

Keep those posts coming Steve and Ginge but…
…keep the egos under wraps until the race has been run and your horse has romped home, until then just bring out the knives for opening up a thousand oysters in the hope of finding a pearl..Jac

Andrew Balding seldom gets winners on debut so it was worth marking up Flashcard, 40/1 when he won on his first start. That form was franked tonight by Dirty Rascal and, to a lesser extent, Grandstand. His pedigree is quite speedy but his granddam stayed 1m 3f and produced some 1m/1m 2f horses which balances out some of the speed.

On his 2nd start he only progressed 4lbs on RPR’s but won with minimal fuss and running against better opposition than John Betjeman may give him an opportunity to compete in Group races. At 40/1 I’m keen to be on side particularly given that Too Darn Hot should be more of a Derby project on pedigree than a Guineas horse (and Lah Ti Dar/So Mi Dar were both made of glass, making the chances of him getting to the race somewhat smaller than could otherwise be the case). Calyx (providing he comes back) and Ten Sovereigns do set a very high standard though.

Too Darn Hot is on target for the Champagne Stakes and then The Dewhurst according to latest reports.

The Dewhurst has thrown up a few future Derby winners but the Champagne Stakes is an awful race for producing winners of the Epsom classic. You need to go back to Grundy in 1974 to find a colt who won the Champagne and then went on to glory in the Epsom Derby.

This seems to be bad news for King Of Comedy, who was entered in the Champagne but that no longer seems to be the case. Instead, King Of Comedy is shown as having the Dewhurst as his target. If Too Darn Hot goes there, you feel King Of Comedy is highly unlikely to take him on.

If we don’t see King Of Comedy again this year it’s highly unlikely he will be ready for one prep race and then the Guineas next season. That would be a huge ask and particularly when the trainer is John Gosden.

I saw Flashcard mentioned but he has a mountain to climb to just reach Too Darn Hot’s level. He needs two stones and the Gosden horse is unlikely to have peaked. Dirty Rascal did win the other night but at 4/5 in a Windsor maiden at his 5th attempt. That’s light years away from classic standard.