[stevecaution]

The potential pitfalls are already built into Enable’s price. She would not be 5/1 if the doubts did not exist.

Bookies are dangling the 5/1 carrot because they know that punters won’t take 2/1 say.

Taking the 5/1 is gambling on the doubts being overcome. You would be trusting that the trainer feels she is on the way back. Every ante-post bet looks goosed if the horse gets badly beaten next time it runs.

It’s better that Crystal Ocean runs in the September Stakes because the race would otherwise have taught us little about Enable. I wouldn’t back Enable at 4/6 against Crystal Ocean because he’s a danger for sure in these circumstances. I think the 2/1 on the Stoute horse is the value on Saturday and it covers the Arc bet on Enable should he Triumph and a small profit to boot.

Hard to say what price Enable goes with a victory. It depends on the style of the performance but she won’t be 5/1 and that was my point all along.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Andre Fabre has said he may supplement Persian King for the Royal Lodge. It will depend on the ground, as he does not want to run him on soft.

If the Racing Post are correct with their rating of Persian King, the horse need not bother coming over, since they gave him a mark of 84 for hosing home by six lengths and that’s 34 lbs behind Too Darn Hot

Rather awkwardly the trainer stated that “He is the best horse I can find” which I took to mean that he was his best youngster this season.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

SPARKLE ROLL is entered up this week (Friday) over 1 mile at Haydock with Oisin Murphy up. This filly is a daughter of Kingman who is out of the Dam of Derby winner Wings Of Eagles.

Costing 750,000 Euros the filly is from the Gosden stable and is entered in the Gp 1 Fillies Mile at Ascot later in the season.

Worth a look I would imagine.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Fabre says Persian King is his outstanding 2 year old.

Better not show Andre the Racing Post figure for Persian King. Their assessor awarded him 84 for his runaway win last time, just an 8 lbs improvement from his first run.

Meanwhile the same organ has no problems in hiking Bruce Wayne 32 lbs for a runner up spot in a terrible looking Group 3 won by Ten Sovereigns.

So that’s the way it stands with RPRs

Ten Sovereigns 113
Persian King 84

Andre’s horse is 29 lbs inferior to Aidan’s and 16 lbs behind the maiden Bruce Wayne.

Holy Fudaroni Batman

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Kris, David Menuisier has warned that Danceteria is not a certain runner in the Cambridgeshire because he is entered in a race in Ireland on Champions weekend.

The trainer said that he and the owner will discuss plans later. There is a possibility that the horse will run in both races, as there is a 13 day gap between the two but it’s not a certainty that he goes.

Danceteria has a mark of 8st 12 lbs to run from and Menuisier said he is not concerned by the weight. He accepted that the horse had to go up for winning the way he did last time.

Earlier on the trainer had compared Danceteria to Thundering Blue in a video interview I saw and he expanded on that recently in saying:-

“It sounds a bit cheeky, I know, but he might turn out to be even better than Thundering Blue, and they have a similar profile in the way that they are improving, it’s just that Danceteria has got there a year earlier. Danceteria is certainly much more professional and easy to handle.”

A case of keeping the fingers crossed then.

Menuisier has two other entries here but they need penalties and help to get into the field.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Persian King was introduced into the betting at 25/1. Andre Fabre’s 6 length winner from the other day is a son of Kingman who was second on debut in a race that usually throws up decent horses. He led his field a merry dance the other day but he has looked more of a staying type in both his races and was well odds-on the other day.

25/1 is way short for now and I have been following him with the French Derby in mind next season. Freddy Head’s Lone Peak is the other colt I like from France so far this year. The son of Lope De Vega slaughtered his field in a newcomers race on debut, pulling away by seven lengths over a mile.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

The trouble is that if you don’t back Enable at 5/1 and she wins nicely on Saturday, you have more or less ruled yourself out of backing her at all.

I have explained why I feel Sea Of Class is worse value and can easily write on why others represent poorer value than Enable.

You can’t really say there are better value 5/1 bets running today and then not list those better value 5/1 horses. In not presenting the horses in question nobody can see whether they actually were value. One horse would have sufficed and had it indeed won at 5/1 then the position would have been lying dormie awaiting Enable winning the Arc to tie the match.

Regarding Capri, he has had a strange season. I don’t think he beat much back in April and it could be that Leger runner up Crystal Ocean has improved past him since. Official handicap ratings indicate that this is highly likely, as the Stoute horse is now 129 to Capri on 120. Capri could still improve himself but the scenario is not ideal and the big worry has to be how poorly Capri ran in last year’s Arc, where he was a 20/1 shot. He looks poor value to me at only 5 points bigger when you take all the factors into mind this year.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Haggas has said Sea Of Class will only go to France if it’s good or better, opining that 120,000 euros to supplement is a lot of money to spend if it’s going to be soft. He reckons that she will stay in training next year and that she can always enter next year’s Arc. He was quite adamant she will not run if the ground is soft.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

“What about SEXTANT who just won a 12f maiden for SMS?”

Sextant has tons to find on form. He didn’t actually progress much from his debut in landing a maiden.

I don’t think he’s actually in the Leger and he’s entered up in a Novice race on Friday. He’s surely a horse for next year. I would imagine he will start in Handicaps with a workable mark. The third horse in Sextant’s maiden, Prabeni, was turned over at 4/11 Fav in Monday’s Windsor race.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

I said after his last run that Old Persian was the last value at 8/1.

Kew Gardens looks tight at his odds. Lah Ti Dar would have an excellent chance but there seems little true prestige in winning a Leger these days. Kew Gardens is as low as 11/10 for this year’s race and I think it’s worth thinking back to last year’s Leger and noting that Capri came in after an Irish Derby win and went off 3/1.

If Old Persian runs his race he will surely place at least but I just went win only at 8/1 after his last start. With a pull at the weights Kew Gardens holds every chance but I see no value at all in his price. There is a chance that rain could scupper his chance and his come from off the pace style.

Nelson was a no show from my early bet, being blatantly used as a pacemaker all year, never allowed to claim his best possible position with the rules flouted.

Hopefully Old Persian can do the business instead.

Old Persian 8/1 was my idea of the best value. In a race that does not look to have much strength in depth.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

With Enable at 4/9 I am assuming Crystal Ocean is unlikely to run. If she can’t beat what’s left there is no point in going to France, as it will mean she hasn’t come back anywhere near the filly she was.

Enable beat Coronet 5 lengths in last year’s Yorkshire Oaks off level weights, Sea Of Class beat the same filly 2 and a quarter lengths in this year’s renewal but was receiving 9 lbs. That leaves Sea Of Class with an advantage on form and Enable also won an Epsom Oaks and all her other races last season in very easy fashion. Enable has been there and won it before and although it is a different racetrack this time in Longchamp, her form looks much more reassured to me.

If Crystal Ocean does run, she has a tougher task ahead on Saturday but should he be there and get beaten by the Nataniel filly, surely her case becomes a whole lot more solid.

In theory Enable could lose narrowly on Saturday to the Stoute horse and avenge it in October but I feel that’s an unlikely scenario and to my mind it’s Monte Carlo or Bust on Saturday. I find the notion of Sea Of Class being shorter for the Arc to be bizarre. The Haggas filly has so much more to prove in a year where her peers have been playing musical chairs around the “Bosses Seat” up until very recently.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Enable looks the best play for the Arc. If she doesn’t win Saturday it’s game over and if she does win, she will be sliced in a year that is nowhere near as good as it first looks. Lots of chaff in the betting with doubts about them. Rather than play 4/9 Saturday it’s much better to take the suitcase down and lump the lot on the Arc at 5/1.

Sea Of Class is a nonsense bet for me at 4/1.

Enable at 5/1, to disable this bunch of pretenders.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

I forgot to add that, if Too Darn Hot goes to the Dewhurst, surely Ten Sovereigns is highly unlikely to take him on there?

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Too Darn Hot is on target for the Champagne Stakes and then The Dewhurst according to latest reports.

The Dewhurst has thrown up a few future Derby winners but the Champagne Stakes is an awful race for producing winners of the Epsom classic. You need to go back to Grundy in 1974 to find a colt who won the Champagne and then went on to glory in the Epsom Derby.

This seems to be bad news for King Of Comedy, who was entered in the Champagne but that no longer seems to be the case. Instead, King Of Comedy is shown as having the Dewhurst as his target. If Too Darn Hot goes there, you feel King Of Comedy is highly unlikely to take him on.

If we don’t see King Of Comedy again this year it’s highly unlikely he will be ready for one prep race and then the Guineas next season. That would be a huge ask and particularly when the trainer is John Gosden.

I saw Flashcard mentioned but he has a mountain to climb to just reach Too Darn Hot’s level. He needs two stones and the Gosden horse is unlikely to have peaked. Dirty Rascal did win the other night but at 4/5 in a Windsor maiden at his 5th attempt. That’s light years away from classic standard.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Persian King’s race can be seen here:-

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/3409/

He seems to do it really easily all the way through the race and if you ignore the winner for a moment and focus on the ultimate runner up you will see that he comes with a run from last place and claims everything else in the race, yet it looks like he was in a seperate race for second place behind a different class individual altogether.

A warm favourite on debut, Persian King was unable to cope with Freddy Head’s Anodor and it will be interesting to see where that colt goes next. He certainly got a good compliment from the horse he beat two lengths when they met.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Why do folks assume that TS wont stay a mile?

When considering an ante-post bet you need to ask yourself if the odds offered represent value for money?

The target race in this case is a mile and historically horses who do not run beyond 6F at two have a worse record by far than those who do.

The historical record of races they run in at two also becomes a consideration. O’Brien said the Middle Park is his main short term target this Autumn and that has been a “Kiss Of Death” race for a generation now.

Ten Sovereigns runs like a sprinter. If a horse is going to be prominent all the way it’s normally a very hard tactic to carry out over a mile. Many have tried and few have succeded from 6F horses trying to eke it out over the Guineas mile.

Ten Sovereigns was almost unheard of a little over a week ago, he’s won a maiden and a Group 3 that was so weak that he went off 1/3 Fav. That in itself asks questions about a horse now 8/1 for the Guineas but in Ten Sovereigns’ case we saw another horse go out and throw his hat into the ring with a performance rated five pounds higher and he has the same level of scope, plus he has already won over a mile and has a far more recognised sire. That horse was, of course, Too Darn Hot, who surely has less questions to answer after winning a much stronger looking race. Should those two colts be the same price for the Guineas?

Ten Sovereigns may prove in time to get a mile, it’s always possible, but the years have shown us that few manage it. I was extremely impressed by Ten Sovereigns on debut and could have taken him at 20/1 for the Guineas last week. The reason I did not do so was the sires progeny thus far largely failing to progress with their racing. It’s a small portion so far but it’s worth following what evidence we have thus far.

Fellow No Nay Never juvenile Servalan ran in the same race as Ten Sovereigns yesterday and she had run a promising race over 5F on debut, half a length 2nd, looking like 6F would suit. Somewhat surprisingly she went into Listed class on her next start and won at 6F fromhot favourite So Perfect and Skitter Scatter. Both of those fillies have won group races since and I felt Servalan might be an Albany contender for Royal Ascot. I felt they made an error in going for the Queen Mary over 5F and in finishing 6th there, Servalan ran 3 lbs below her previous form and I was wary of her yesterday as a bet at only 4/1 odds. She finished last and her rating of 76 was only a pound ahead of her debut effort.

Cosmic Law is another No Nay Never juvenile and he seemed to be going places based on his 6 length win in the Woodcote at Epsom. He was fancied by some going into the Coventry but he was 9th there, followed by a 6th and an 8th with a static and somewhat degraded rating level since Epsom.

No Nay Never won the Norfolk at Royal Ascot before going to France and landing the Morny. There was talk of the Guineas for him and he was prominent in the betting for it but that all seemed to be knocked on the head when he tried 7F on his comeback at 3YO in a Grade 2 contest where he was 2/5 Fav. He led that day but was headed going into the final furlong and was beaten. He wasn’t out again until October when he got back on track over 5 and a half furlongs, holding off the closing horse by half a length. His final race was at the Breeders Cup over 6 and a half furlongs, where he led entering the final furlong but was worn down late by Bobby’s Kitten, who I had backed purely for the cat connection.

No Nay Never lost twice in his six race career, both losses occured when he raced beyond 6F. Some of his juveniles have run as often as he did in his career already and one has already run 7 times. There are questions still to be answered on improvement with racing and perhaps longevity. The stamina prognosis for his stock is a long way away from being finalised.

It’s very early in the career of a stallion but it’s worth looking for clues and assessing the career of the horse himself to guide us on potential investments.

I felt Ten Sovereigns had less questions for the Commonwealth Cup and feel he is poor value for the Guineas at 8/1. I can understand the thinking of those who took him at 20/1 because if you were going to back him at all then you had to act before the second run. He wasn’t for me at 20/1 but good luck to those who fancied him, as he’s clearly got talent and nothing wrong with a 20/1 bet. At 8/1 AND with Too Darn Hot in the mix, however, I think he is appalling value.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Steve, probably not worth me butting in, but i think GT was just replying to this part of your post:

It’s a funny old Guineas market so far from the race. Some firms have an injured horse at 7/1 and two Group 3 winners at 6/1. One of those looks a sprinter and the other horse was considered more of a Derby sort after debuting at a mile.

Is it really a 6/4 shot that one of those three will win it?

with:

Some bookmakers will believe Calyx might not get there, some will believe Ten Sovereigns won’t stay and/or Too Darn Hot a middle distance performer; but those that do offer bigger prices. Top prices of 8/1, 10/1 and 10/1. Has the threesome really got between a 9/4 and 5/2 chance?

Not sure there’s anything wrong there?

If he’d left it at that it would have been fine Jack. That bit was fair enough but what has my backing the three horses, for three seperate races, at much bigger individual odds got to do with anything.

Ginger thinks that writing MORE makes your argument stronger, when it just doesn’t.

I asked if 6/4 was value for three horses combined in the Guineas betting from one firm. A simple yes or no, with or without arguement.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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