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It seems a long way off but once the Flat season is up and running, it goes by relatively quickly and to some extent picking likely St Leger winners is all about picking the right O’Brien colt to be good enough to land it but not so good as to be kept at mile and a half races instead.
Capri fitted the bill last season as he proved to have enough ability for Doncaster but not the Arc afterwards.
O’Brien had a closely matched trio last year, in Delano Roosevelt, Kew Gardens and Nelson, who all sort of fit the bill as not likely to be good enough for a Derby but may be just the type to score in the St Leger, which, for me, Isn’t really a Group 1 class contest.
Looking for darker ones I thought Amedeo Modigliani might fit the bill after he won his maiden on bad ground but that was stopped in its tracks when O’Brien said that he is not sure the colt will get a mile and a quarter.
The earlier three mentioned met in a Group 3 at Leopardstown, when Delano Roosevelt was a warm favourite at 11/10. It was Nelson who came out on top though, by a commanding three lengths from Kew Gardens, with Delano Roosevelt not far back in third.
Delano Roosevelt and Kew Gardens went on to meet again in the Group 2 Beresford but neither was favourite for the race. Instead it was maiden winner Saxon Warrior who was a shade of odds-on after an impressive debut. Ryan Moore was on Saxon Warrior and punters took that as a sign he was number 1 and it certainly proved that way as he scooted 2 and a half lengths clear despite being a bit green. This time Delano Roosevelt reversed form with Kew Gardens but not by much.
Kew Gardens went on to the Zetland Stakes and dropped in class and up in trip I was surprised he was not odds-on. I had a decent bet on him and he sauntered home from Mark Johnston’s Dee Ex Bee, who was decent but a bit hit and miss last season.
Nelson took a different path to the Royal Lodge and I got involved early at 10/3 for that race. The race cut up to such an extent that Nelson went off 5/6 Fav but as ever, something emerged from the woodwork, this time a colt called Roaring Lion. I was initially gutted and felt Nelson had run below form, because the Gosden horse had run 19 lbs higher than his previous mark on RPR’s, however Roaring Lion went on to give Saxon Warrior a hell of a fright in the Racing Post Trophy and improved his RPR to 118 in the process.
Nelson has arguably the best form of the trio I am looking at here. In addition, in O’Brien’s run through his team this year, Nelson was the only one he said may get further than a mile and a half this season. By Frankel, it is hoped he can do a Cracksman and get better in the Autumn.
Available at 33/1 Nelson looks the best current value for the St Leger and worth a tenner for an early dart.
St Leger Nelson 33/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Same here I look for the staying obrien horses who have not the class formile and half races and selected Nelson after royal lodge and Kew gardens after the Zetland am surprised that Nelson is as big as 33/1 think that Kew gardens could be a big improver this year done both at willy hills as a speculative investment had some good fortune with O’Brien in the Leger with Scorpion ,leading light and Capri all bigger odds then so on the day
Happy with Nelson today. Still value at 20/1 in my opinion and as low as 14/1.
That was a stamina sapping race today and I still feel the Leger is the more feasible target with the stable having other Derby possibles.
I still recommend a bet at 20/1.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
KEW GARDENS at 25/1 for me way he won Zetland shape more like a stayer than anything else
Any views on Gosden horses here Steve normally another trainer to look at here. i like CORELLI being related to Lucarno i think more he races better he get and think trip be ideal for him.
Nelson at 20/1 would be my bet at this stage if I had to
Nice price at 33s you’ve got Steve
I reckon Nelson could go same route as capri , Derrystown in May Irish derby in July and on to the to st leger well here’s hoping anyway
As noted in earlier post for me CORELLI end up here as main one for Gosden not see him derby horse but he looks a stayer will keep improve for races he have
Am sure something will come out of the woodwork to challenge.
Absolutely no chance Saxon Warrior will turn up here now he got beaten at Epsom. This only mentioned prior to the Derby if the Triple Crown was on… And now a very doubtful stayer anyway. O’Brien has so many well bred staying types, Southern France, Nelson, Delano Roosevelt etc. At least one staying colt is likely to show improvement between now to September… Only if they don’t can I see them running the filly (no, not September). But if colts disappoint then his Oaks winner Forever Together will be a worthy replacement.
Given Young Rascal‘s lack of experience, he could yet show the improvement he looked capable in the Chester Vase.
However, Dee Ex Bee put up a level of performance in the Derby that’s good enough to win an average St Leger. “Average” as in, if putting up the same standard of performance in September as he did on Saturday he’d win 50% of St Legers. Trained by a lover of the final Classic who’s dying to win it – this will be the target… And the way he runs, there’s also a good chance of improving further once upped to this trip… And yet he’s still 6/1. That looks massive! If Dee Ex Bee were O’Briens would be 6/4.
Value Is Everythingi can see where people are coming from about Dee Ex Bee for the Leger, but just a slight word of caution(well in my view). was he coming in back at two horses whose best trip maybe 10F (Masr and Roaring Lion), which made it look like a ‘leger’ performance
The dam side does not shout 14F (to me anyway). I know better judges than me (timeform/posters etc) think he is made for the race, I just am not sure.
Well if you didn’t fancy the Johnston inmate now, you do now.
Couldnt back a johnston horse so far in advance, hes likely to run the horse 2/3 times before then and in typical johnston style hes likely to run 2 shockers before running well in this
Would be surprised if you cant get better than 6/1 at some point between now and theni can see where people are coming from about Dee Ex Bee for the Leger, but just a slight word of caution(well in my view). was he coming in back at two horses whose best trip maybe 10F (Masr and Roaring Lion), which made it look like a ‘leger’ performance
The dam side does not shout 14F (to me anyway). I know better judges than me (timeform/posters etc) think he is made for the race, I just am not sure.
Well if you didn’t fancy the Johnston inmate now, you do now.
In isolation, the horses he split – Masar and Roaring Lion – can see how you might come to that conclusion, nwalton… And not only the dam’s side – both sides of pedigree don’t shout 14f. Have you looked further than that?
Sire Farhh being an 8 to 10 furlong horse who was himself by sprinter Pivotal. Doesn’t look good for a St Leger. Farhh’s dam though was a 1 1/2 mile Group 1 winner, Gonbarda; who was by stamina influence Lando. Dee Ex Bee’s dam Dubai Sunrise is an unraced sister of the great 10f horse Dubai Millenium. But breeding can be overlooked when the way a horse races – not only in one race – makes it probable he’ll not only get 14f but improve for it. ie If a horse travels with ease through a race – without being outpaced or pushed along – it’s unlikely will be suited by further. But Dee Ex Bee isn’t like that, hasn’t been a quickener and best performances all coming in races that have tested stamina most (staying on).
As a two year old winning over a 1m0.5f on heavy (stamina sapping conditions for a two year old) only getting on top near the line. Then in the 1m2f Zetland Stakes; staying on to retake second after being outpaced. Could’ve done with further then, even when racing at the maximum 2 year old trip.
As a three year old second in the 1m4f63yrds Chester Vase – the longest Derby trial. Such a trip in early May as a three year old is a stamina distance… more so considering it was a strongly run race in which he gave away ground by racing wide. Staying on to go clear with the winner. That performance alone makes it almost certain he’ll be suited by 14f now, let alone by September. The Derby only confirming it.Value Is Everythingyes I did look further back GT but I not the greatest with grammar spelling and putting together long winded decent pieces.
If I was to chat about it face to face I would hopefully come across far better
That is your opinion that he will be suited by the extra distance, as yet it is not fact, i have slight doubts and that’s what makes racing great, differing opinions. I am not a big fan of ante post betting, but 6s does not appeal to me, but it does you, as you see things that I don’t( have not yet)
Good luck with your betCouldnt back a johnston horse so far in advance, hes likely to run the horse 2/3 times before then and in typical johnston style hes likely to run 2 shockers before running well in this
Would be surprised if you cant get better than 6/1 at some point between now and then.Can see your point, ham. But I think the Johnston thing is exaggerated. Trainer’s lesser lights often run in competitive races and sometimes in races which do not suit the horse – either ground or distance. tbh I can only see two races for him between now and September. Actually hope Dee Ex Bee runs twice mor. For sure sometimes he races some inmates too often, but Dee Ex Bee is one that thrives on racing. Standing in his box would (for him) imo be a negative. Came to the Derby from a hard race at Chester, a race the winner failed to recover from in time for Epsom. However, it did go through my mind that I don’t want him appearing quickly at Royal Ascot’s King Ed. I know Permian went Derby – King Ed, but he was only 10th at Epsom and not of the same quality as Dee Ex Be… And when I looked at that race Johnston (and the owner) already have an ideal candidate in Mildenburger. I’d be surprised if Dee Ex Bee does not go for the Irish Derby (needs supplementing) especially if Godolphin’s Masar goes Eclipse… Or possibly Prix de Paris (the race Permian was an unlucky loser last year)… Followed by (if unsuccessful there) the Voltigeur. I expect Saxon Warrior to beat him in Ireland if the two meet. Even so should run well and betting will take that in to account. Again, if there’s a slow pace in a 12f race – not suiting his stamina – I’d expect bookmakers/price to take that in to account too. Biggest problem might be where he goes if beating Saxon Warrior. But if so will shorten anyway and he’ll have improved – probably having an even bigger chance on form. Hopefully won’t then go instead for the Arc as the Sheikh Mo representitive!!!
Value Is Everything
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