September 14, 2018 at 13:23 #1373882
Saved on Lah Ti Dar @ 7/2, but now trades under 2/1 and is favourite; imo that’s far too short. Very impressed with the Galtres victory, but faces a much better quality field. May well be the best quality horse running but has some stamina and (if it continues to firm up) ground doubts too.
Kew Gardens has gone out from 5/4 earlier in the week to almost 11/4 – drift was needed considering LTD and Loxley weren’t sure to run and KG wasn’t sure to be as effective on softer ground… But now looks as if it’ll be a sound surface; 11/4 is too big imo. Beaten less than 1 3/4 lengths in the Voltigeur whilst giving winner Old Persian two pounds, would’ve given him a lot more to do in the Voltigeur had he not been so tenderly handled/given too much to do; possibly due to some stablemates running poorly at that time and connections not wanting a hard race if he wasn’t 100%. Ballydoyle are now in fine form! Breeding, how they race and their race historys all point to KG being far more likely to be suited by this return to further than his “old” rival. Kew Gardens is proven at even further – won the Queens Vase by 4 1/2 lengths from Southern France. Latter never nearer and again last time out in only race since, the Group 3 St Leger Trial. 2 1/4 lengths behind Sunday’s short priced Irish St Leger favourite Flag Of honour. Southern France might surprise if the race is set up for him – beholden to how fast others go. Old Persian is by Dubawi out of a sister to Ribblesdale winner Silkwood. Despite a fast 12f pace Old Persian didn’t fully settle early at York and this will be slower still.
Prefer the Godolphin second string, Loxley. Like stablemate not sure to be suited by this trip. Seemed outstayed by Wells Farhh Go in Bahrain Trophy (13f), but that was still (up to then) his best performance and had given the winner enough rope that day. Back in distance, improved to win a pretty good French Group 2 against older horses at 12f. Coronation Cup runner-up Salouen beaten over two lengths. 10/1 not a bad price to take a chance on stamina. Coolmore have three other Voltigeur horses reopposing. Nelson is a better horse than able to show, trouble is odds are he’ll once again be sacrificed as pacemaker. Zabriske looked flattered by a staying on from the back of the field to take third in the Dante. The Pentagon was ante-post favourite for the Derby at one stage. Hasn’t lived up to that, but by Galileo and a half brother to Vadamar – a Group 2 winner at this trip in France. The Pentagon could improve here although 5 1/2 lengths may be too much to make up.
Proschema a good third off top weight (mark of 100) in the Melrose last time means isn’t far behind on ratings alone, but doubt he has the scope to improve. Raymond Tusk may be steadily progressive, but already beaten by Hamada when hampered in the Geoffrey freer. If Hamada can beat him Lah Ti Dar and co shouldn’t have too much of a problem. Maid Up sportingly supplemented and comes from an in form trainer. Can’t help feel she’s been added to field primarily because the yard had Horseplay for the Park Hill. Another steadily progressive sort. Didn’t need to improve to win a three runner Group 3 last time. Only defeat in last five starts when short head second to Pilaster penultimate efort. Pilaster should’ve done better in Park Hill yesterday. Not out of it, but connections will probably be happy with fifth.
I’ve said enough about my main bet, Dee Ex Bee.value is everythingSeptember 14, 2018 at 18:17 #1373909
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Good right up Mark.
I’m on Dee Ex Bee at a rather skinny looking 10’s having backed him several weeks ago, I’m not quite as confident as you are that he’ll show significant improvement tomorrow but I haven’t given up on the bet for sure.
Like a few of us I took 7/2 on LTD earlier in the week, so sitting pretty now. I think this filly has a real touch of class that the rest of the field are lacking. The value has gone now as it’s a serious test for her but I’m confident she can do the business.September 14, 2018 at 21:01 #1373924
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Nice work, Mark. I had a quick look at Dee Ex Bee earlier in the week but he didn’t look like getting his ground. Seems much more likely to now but on looking again he’s just been too disappointing lately for me to back him.
Not sure I agree that Proschema will struggle to find improvement. Change of tactics (or perhaps the horse dwelling) last time saw him run the best race of his career, and the ground, trip and long straight will suit him. AT his massive price (currently 110 on Betfair) I’d sooner go with him.
Fav seems very short for what she’s achieved and I suspect much of her price is down to who trains her. She has a dire Topspeed figure for tomorrow (Proschema is rated 8lbs better on TS). It’s an open race.
Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/September 15, 2018 at 10:47 #1374058
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Am on LOXLEY at 10/1. I think the godolphin horses are pretty closely matched and if the front two under perform then this is the one!!September 15, 2018 at 13:11 #1374101
Is there something wrong with Kew Gardens?
5/4 earlier in the week, now out to 7/2. I know Lah Ti Dar and Loxley now run; so I’d expect a drift. But has he really got half the chance he did on Monday? No other horse has gone out that far.value is everythingSeptember 15, 2018 at 15:14 #1374150
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Old Persian for me. 13-2 ew 4 places.
Good luck all.September 15, 2018 at 15:35 #1374152
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Southern France and Nelson both EW for meSeptember 15, 2018 at 15:43 #1374153
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Old Persian didn’t stay. Wd winners.September 15, 2018 at 15:44 #1374154
No gige, hes fineSeptember 15, 2018 at 16:13 #1374160
The two class horses came to the front. Well done Kew Gardens backers (I had him as a part saver so don’t call myself as one). 7/2 was too big and shortened to 3/1 SP. Capri was an above average Leger winner and so too is this horse. Lah Ti Dar ran right up to her best, may do better for this experience but didn’t have as much pace as I’d expected. As expected Old Persian travelled well but didn’t stay. Southern France at last had a race run to suit and improved accordingly. Ground bordering on good-firm (time just 0.34 seconds off Racing Post Standard). My “value bet of the year” Dee Ex Bee might have done better than fourth with more rain, but still shortened up from 16/1 to 9/1 and beat all bar one of those I expected him to.value is everythingSeptember 15, 2018 at 16:28 #1374161
Dee ex bee didnt exactly stay either ginge he was 1 and 1/4 ahead of a bunch of 6 and 9 lengths off the winner and yes he shortened before the off but you could have had him at whatever price you wanted in the last 24 hours
Lah ti dar wasnt experienced enough and her class probably got the distance more than anything, a certain group 1 winner in waitinf, the winner was excellent, southern france will be a gold cup horse for me, everything in behind, probably not proper group 1 quality at staying distances, afterall, a horse who hasnt won anything better than a class 2 was infront of them…September 15, 2018 at 16:40 #1374164
If you don’t think Dee Ex Bee “stayed” then your definition is a lot different to mine, ham.
Punters eventually identified Dee Ex Bee as value and backed him in to single figures.
Suspect we’ll see both Southern France and Dee Ex Bee in staying races next season if not this. Wouldn’t be surprised if Johnston targets the Champion Long Distance race on Champions Day. Further he goes the more chance he’ll have. Although is lazy these days and may never get back to Derby form.value is everythingSeptember 15, 2018 at 17:37 #1374174
My point was being 1 and 3/4 lengths ahead of a bunch and 9 lengths behind the winner and finishing 4 doesnt exactly prove his stamina, there is no value in anything if the horse cant win and this horse cant win. Value means nothing in this instance.September 15, 2018 at 18:06 #1374176
Are you saying if a horse doesn’t win it doesn’t stay, ham?
First two today are bloody good horses, Lah Ti Dar would’ve won most St Legers. Dee Ex Bee’s 4th was not as good as his Derby 2nd, but had it been up to his Epsom form he still wouldn’t have been in the first two.
Even so, he was staying on well at the end of 1 3/4 miles. Therefore he stayed the trip.
A horse does not need to win to stay.value is everythingSeptember 15, 2018 at 20:32 #1374190
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Bordering good to firm???
I was there today and IMO no way was there any firm in the going description.
I am not a clock expert but every race was slower than standard some more than others.
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