Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Interesting one Andy, SF doesn’t look a Melbourne type at all to me
That comment is most likely to bring you some embarrassment BB.
SF is exactly the right type IMO and I have selected Mourilyan, All the Good, Mahler and Delta Blues in recent times.
He comes and our local contingent are in for a huge fight.
Nice runs by Precedence and Herculain Prince so far today. Not sure either can win the big one though. The one revelation has been the winner of the 2011 King’s Stand – HAY LIST.
The Prince was awesome after such a hard run last week over 1400m. To step up to 2000m and win after that run proves he has a cast iron constitution.
I am biased but I hope he smashes them in the Caulfield Cup but Sans Frontieres is a shade better in the Melbourne Cup.
I think Sans Frontieres can pick up that bonus.
Happy with the place money on Flying Cross in todays race.
I hope your right and i must admit my confidence has grown enormously after such a dominant win.
I have a double with Herculian Prince in the Caulfield Cup that is mouth watering after both horses winning today.
They must repeat the wins in each race for me to collect but this is a nice progression.
The Cup currently carries a $500,000 bonus to the owner of the winning horse from the group one Irish St. Leger, run in September, if it then wins the Melbourne Cup in November.
Goes a long way to explaining MC entries in the ISL.
Rite has enough weight though so the penalty risk is not worth him running.
Sans and Beauty can expect up to 1.5kg penalty should they win taking their MC weight to 56.5 and 55.5 respectively.
Still the 500k bonus is a big carrot.
From the form I’ve been doing i have Sans Frontieres right in this race.
He looks to be improving with every run and with only eight starts under his belt then he has plenty of up-side left.
Being in Oz I can only go by what i see in the replays but can someone that goes to the track please make a comparison of Sans with both PB and Rite when they were at Sans experience level. cheers in advance
I’m not sure about the internationals – all I know is that I do really like Sans Frontieres and Holberg as nice types for the race.
Sans Frontieres is improving with every run and if you run a line through Laaheb who won strongly today from Holberg then his form looks even better.
I like him a lot, best of the Europeans IMO.
Mastery is in the same mold as Sans Frontieres and would have been hard to beat.
It will take a ripping sort to beat Shocking anyway, his run today was signaling a repeat of last year seams most likely.
The light weight smoky is Herculian Prince, his run today at Randwick was unbelievable. He traveled wide all the way yet ran on strongly for 3rd. Caulfield Cup winner written all over the run.
Have had email contact with RVL – they say that the most likely international contingent for the Cups will be as follows:
Drunken Sailor
(Caulfield/Geelong Cup, Melbourne Cup)
Manighar
(Caulfield/Geelong Cup, Melbourne Cup)
Sans Frontieres
(Melbourne Cup)
Americain
(Melbourne Cup)
Profound Beauty
(Melbourne Cup)
Rite of Passage
(Melbourne Cup)
Tokai Trick
(Caulfield Cup, Melbourne Cup)
Mr Medici
(Caulfield Cup, Melbourne Cup)
Break a Theory and Meiner Kitz are out.
Illustrious Blue won’t be coming unless he is sold.
And just waiting to see who Godolphin will bring out, if they have representation.
They will, the taste of MC is so close and I think they are primed to take it home.
I think he’s fallen into the Black Hole of Dubai Snoop.
Look elsewhere mate.
As for Efficient being a likely non runner – You would have to be insane to back him for anything prior to him ever entering the barriers.
That would explain it
Must be something in the nom though.
Saeed bin Suroor’s comments before the running of last years cup still ring in my ear.
"I won’t bring a horse that is likely to get injured on a firm track again" or words to that effect. This was in the press conference when announcing the withdrawal of Kirklees.
Crime Scene ran second so I am sure Saeed knows the Cup is his with the right horse.
Quote’s from the Godolphin site
Mastery broke through for his first Group One win in the best possible fashion when running out the convincing winner of the Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes, the final Classic of the English season, at Doncaster on September 12. The least fancied of the two Godolphin runners, behind favourite Kite Wood, there was still stable
confidence in Mastery who it was thought would appreciate the fast ground.
Mastery ran above expectations when fifth on his 2010 seasonal debut in the US$10million Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline at Meydan on Saturday, March 28. Dropping back to ten furlongs in the world’s richest race run on Tapeta may not have seemed ideal to start off his 2010 campaign but Mastery acquitted himself well. Frankie Dettori was always close to the pace and never further back than fourth as the field turned into the straight. Keeping on really well to the finish he only lost fourth spot on the line and was beaten less than two lengths by the winner.
The question is
A) Did Mastery get an injury after that run or
B) Did they decide that Mastery is the perfect MC type and put him away for this race.
Not having read any news of an injury I am leaning towards B. Godolphin keep their cards close to their chest don’t they.
Mastery
Kirklees younger half brother.
Likes a firm track but I can’t find any news about him anywhere.
Has anyone heard how he is tracking and if he is likely to come down under?
I’ve got to have a bet on Mourilyan, heard too many positive things about him to ignore him. Wonder about Basaltico as well; given Cumani’s record in the race he surely wouldn’t run him if there was no chance of placing?
I had a nibble at Mourilyan earlier but then had a more decent go at him last night. Got 55/1 early and topped up with 32/1.
I watched his gallop with Changingoftheguard. While COTG had cantered a lap prior and given Mourilyan a good start in the gallop, the acceleration of Mourilyan was excellent and he moved away from COTG easily to win by three lengths.
Clearly the best chance of the internationals.Mourilyan had a gallop and his Aussie race rider Glen Schofield was impressed, quote "he is a stayer with speed".
Will need to be at his best to topple Efficient, viewed, Speed Gifted Alcopop and the luckless Master O’reilly.
The real contenders in the Melbourne Cup.
Locals first
Speed Gifted – The Metrop win was about as impressive a run as you could expect, bringing his Aussie record to 3 wins from 4 starts. The non winning run was a fourth coming from 14th at the 400m mark, second-up. With his impending run in the Cox Plate his weight for the first Tuesday in November is guaranteed at 53kgs. His dosage is in line with past Cup winners.
Must be included.Alcopop – A surprise packet that cannot be over looked.
A son of Jeune, his second dam by At Talaq, but from a family more known for sprinters. He just might have the perfect mix of speed and stamina.
Must include in multiple betting, his last run was simply outstanding.Efficient – 58kgs is a good horses weight, make no mistake Efficient is a 2 miler of the highest class. By super staying sire Zabeel and a past winner of the Cup he is another that Must be included in multiples.
Roman Emperor – Bred to run a strong 2 miles this son of Montjeu should be in the mix with your multiples, even though this post is before his CC run, don’t sack him if he runs poorly at Caulfield. Although drawn nicely in barrier 5 for the CC, early pace could see him locked away on the fence and this horse needs galloping room. Flemington will suit him better.
Internationals
Mourilyan – Comes to Australia as a last start winner at 2800m in listed company where he came from the tail of the field, held up until the last 200m and unleashed a brilliant burst to win easily by 3 lengths. Disappointed slightly in a muddling run race at his previous start in group 3 race behind the very good Godolphin performer Kite Wood. His first up run at 3200m behind Schiaparelli in the group 2 Goodwood Cup was 1st class and although held comfortably on the line the first two were 12 lengths clear of the third placed runner. Again coming from the tail division he chased the winner strongly and at one stage looked likely to catch Schiaparelli.
Kirklees and Cima de Triomphe are genuine Caulfield Cup chances but I doubt their ability at 2 miles. The other international entries would surprise if they were to be placed.
Caulfield Cup
Cima De Triomphe
Kirklees
Allez Wonder
Master O’Reilly
Predatory PricerThese five will fight out the finish IMO.
Light Vision being a front runner is not of too much concern. If the pace slows as usual in the middle stages and he is allowed to bowl along without any pressure he can win.
Yes, one of my ideas for getting out of the race okay is to lay back some of my Light Vision bet in running as they go down the back straight.
If he is being challenged for the lead before the 4f mark get out quick, if they only reach him at 3f then do your best to escape most of the risk but if he is able to kick for home at the clock tower 2f still in front then take the risk and hope he can hold on.
Master O’Reilly has recovered and is entered to run this Saturday in the Yalumba Stakes. The CC is one week later so I think he is in the race to top him off fitness wise for the CC. He is however paid up for the CP and that would be a back-up plan in case he needs the extra time to recover. I do believe that if he comes through the Yalumba ok then he will take his place in the Caulfield Cup. (He won this race two years ago)
Nom Du Jeu was paid up for the CP and is also entered in the Yalumba Stakes this week. The Yalumba is the Cox Plate’s main lead up race so connections will make a final decision after his run. Cox Plate favorite Whobegotyou is also in the Yalumba so this will be a great guide.
Speed gifted is no certainty to run in the CC after receiving a 2kg penalty for the race following his brilliant win in the Metropolitan Handicap last weekend.
Now on 53kgs for the Caulfield / Melbourne Cups and connections have the Melbourne Cup as his main goal.
If Speed Gifted was to win the CC then he would certainly get another 2kg penalty for the MC bringing his weight to 55kgs. That is not set in stone however, just because the CC winner is usually penalized 2kgs does not mean a greater penalty will not be allocated.
The maximum penalty is 3kgs and given Speed Gifted received an unusually heavy penalty for the Metrop win, the handicapper obviously rates him very highly.
A CP win would bring no penalty so connections have a hard decision to make.Light Vision being a front runner is not of too much concern. If the pace slows as usual in the middle stages and he is allowed to bowl along without any pressure he can win.
Might and Power lead all the way so it is possible, however Might and Power was one of our greatest race horses.Snoop, Efficient is about 24 for the Cox Plate. That seems to be a bit big to me. Am I missing something? Will it be that he won’t actually be trying to win, and will just be hacking around as a prep for the Big ‘Un?
Efficient is some chance in the Cox Plate and I am sure connections will try to win.
The good price is due to him having to come from well back and Mooney valley has a short straight.
I think an each way bet is well worth the gamble because I think they will set him alight early to move within striking distance ala Makybe Diva when she won the Plate.Nom Du Jeu had a bumping dual at the top of the straight and his run was good overall so he may still line up in the Cox Plate yet. He was still quite fresh and raced more forward than normal.
Speed Gifted was a massive win and he will get at least 1kg for the win, could even get 1.5kgs!
Caulfield Cup start is almost a sure thing and then he need only run well and the MC start will follow.Efficient looks back to his best so I hope you had a saver on him as I suggested at the start of this thread.
He will be the horse to beat in the Cup even with 58kgs.
Efficient will not run in the CC as to avoid any penalty so the Cox Plate will be his next run.Master O’Reilly was a late scratching and it was reported that he had an elevated temperature. This is a set back for most of my doubles. Will wait and see what eventuates there.
