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Master O’Reilly has recovered and is entered to run this Saturday in the Yalumba Stakes. The CC is one week later so I think he is in the race to top him off fitness wise for the CC. He is however paid up for the CP and that would be a back-up plan in case he needs the extra time to recover. I do believe that if he comes through the Yalumba ok then he will take his place in the Caulfield Cup. (He won this race two years ago)
Nom Du Jeu was paid up for the CP and is also entered in the Yalumba Stakes this week. The Yalumba is the Cox Plate’s main lead up race so connections will make a final decision after his run. Cox Plate favorite Whobegotyou is also in the Yalumba so this will be a great guide.
Speed gifted is no certainty to run in the CC after receiving a 2kg penalty for the race following his brilliant win in the Metropolitan Handicap last weekend.
Now on 53kgs for the Caulfield / Melbourne Cups and connections have the Melbourne Cup as his main goal.
If Speed Gifted was to win the CC then he would certainly get another 2kg penalty for the MC bringing his weight to 55kgs. That is not set in stone however, just because the CC winner is usually penalized 2kgs does not mean a greater penalty will not be allocated.
The maximum penalty is 3kgs and given Speed Gifted received an unusually heavy penalty for the Metrop win, the handicapper obviously rates him very highly.
A CP win would bring no penalty so connections have a hard decision to make.Light Vision being a front runner is not of too much concern. If the pace slows as usual in the middle stages and he is allowed to bowl along without any pressure he can win.
Might and Power lead all the way so it is possible, however Might and Power was one of our greatest race horses.Light Vision being a front runner is not of too much concern. If the pace slows as usual in the middle stages and he is allowed to bowl along without any pressure he can win.
Yes, one of my ideas for getting out of the race okay is to lay back some of my Light Vision bet in running as they go down the back straight.
Light Vision being a front runner is not of too much concern. If the pace slows as usual in the middle stages and he is allowed to bowl along without any pressure he can win.
Yes, one of my ideas for getting out of the race okay is to lay back some of my Light Vision bet in running as they go down the back straight.
If he is being challenged for the lead before the 4f mark get out quick, if they only reach him at 3f then do your best to escape most of the risk but if he is able to kick for home at the clock tower 2f still in front then take the risk and hope he can hold on.
That advice will be more useful for Irish Stamp, as I won’t have pictures. Will probably have BBC Radio 5 Live for the race as there probably won’t be too much of a time delay.
Snoop, what’s your take on the going for Caulfield on Saturday?
Efficient
is now going straight to the Melbourne Cup, so that has cost me a whole £2 for the Cox Plate, as I never got around to having a bigger bet on him.
Zipping
is likely to be Lloyd Williams’ only runner in the in the Cox Plate. I am surprised that
C’Est La Guerre
is allowed to withdraw from the Herbert Power on Saturday, for no other reason than it is drawn 16 of 16. C’Est La Guerre is now going straight to the Caulfield Cup.
Anyway, this is the rundown for Saturday:-
R5 4.40am BST, Yalumba Stakes 2000m G1
Master O’Reilly
Whobegotyou
Zarita
Other notable runners are Vision And Power, Heart Of Dreams and Nom Du Jeu.R6 5.20am Toorak H’cap 1600m G1
Only listing this because the winner is ballot exempt for the Caulfield Cup.
Black Piranha
Rock Kingdom
Gold Salute
RaffaelloR7 6.00 Caulfield Guineas 3yo 1600m G1
Said to be the best renewal since 1999.
Manhattan Rain
Trusting
So You ThinkR8 6.40 Herbert Power Stakes 2400m G2
Arapaho Miss
C’Est La Guerre scratched
Capecover
Figure Of Speech
Fordee
Hissing Sid
Hoorang
Kibbutz
Mr Tipsy
Precedence
Shocking
Young Centaur
ZaviteI’ll back Zavite if its fast. Have a feeling that Precedence might win, so I’ve had a pre-emptive bet on the Caulfield Cup on him.
40 minutes between races – I suppose this is so that punters can comfortably drink a metric litre of beer between races.
Knocked this out now because I did a 12 hour shift today, doing another one tomorrow, and I want to spend Friday evening studying the Guineas.
Exempt from Ballot as at 6 October 2009 : Nil
Nil
Passed 2009 Emirates Melbourne Cup first ballot clause as at 6 October 2009 : Total 571
2 -£170.00 VIEWED (Bart Cummings) 6 h
3
4
5
6
7 -£170.00 C’EST LA GUERRE (NZ) (John Sadler) 5 g
8 -£92.30 MASTER O’REILLY (NZ) (Danny O’Brien) 7 g
9 -£170.00 PROFOUND BEAUTY (IRE) (Dermot Weld) 6 m
10 -£170.00 DAFFODIL (NZ) (Kevin Gray) 4 m
1112 -£170.00 CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (IRE) (David Hayes) 4 h
13 -£170.00 ZIPPING (John Sadler) 8 g
1415
16 -£170.00 RED RULER (NZ) (John Sargent) 5 g
17
18
19 -£170.00 SPEED GIFTED (GB) (Lee Freedman) 6 g
20
21
22
23 -£170.00 NEWPORT (Paul Perry) 7 g
24
25 -£170.00 SHOCKING (Mark Kavanagh) 4 h
26
27 -£170.00 SPIN AROUND (Steven Cooper) 9 g
28 -£170.00 GUYNO (NZ) (Lou Luciani) 6 g
2930 -£170.00 CAPECOVER (NZ) (Alexander Fieldes) 7 g
31
32 -£82.50 VIGOR (NZ) (Danny O’Brien) 5 g
33 -£170.00 CATS FUN (Jarrod McLean) 7 g
3435 -£170.00 YOUNG CENTAUR (John Sargent) 7 g
36 -£170.00 MR CLANGTASTIC (Marc Conners) 6 g
37 -£170.00 HISSING SID (Bill and Symon Wilde) 5 g
38 -£170.00 RENEWABLE (NZ) (John Sadler) 8 g
39 -£170.00 PRECEDENCE (NZ) (Bart Cummings) 4 h
40 -£170.00 ARAPAHO MISS (Pat Carey) 5 m
41 -£170.00 MISS DARCEY (Anthony Cummings) 4 m
4243 -£55.60 SIX O’CLOCK NEWS (NZ) (Paddy & Trent Busuttin) 5 g
44 -£170.00 STERLING PRINCE (NZ) (Wayne Hillis) 6 g
45 -£170.00 FIGURE OF SPEECH (NZ) (Brian Jenkins) 8 g
46 -£170.00 BELLAGIO WYNN (Chris Waller) 6 g
47 -£170.00 HOORANG (NZ) (Ian Shaw) 7 m
48 -£170.00 CAPE BRETON (NZ) (Danny Williams) 7 g
49 -£170.00 ALLEZ WONDER (Bart Cummings) 4 m
50 -£170.00 SKY BISCUIT (Tom Higgins) 9 g
51 -£170.00 THINK MONEY (Bart Cummings) 4 m
52 -£170.00 SAND HAWK (NZ) (Jenny Vance) 6 g
53 -£170.00 GLISTENING (GB) (Michael Moroney) 8 g
54 -£170.00 NOTHIN’ LEICA CAT (NZ) (Anthony Cummings) 4 m
55 -£170.00 COMMON OBJECTIVE (Gai Waterhouse) 5 g
56 -£170.00 COMPLETION (NZ) (Brendan Woodman) 7 g
57 -£170.00 FORDEE (Robbie Griffiths) 5 gNot passed 2009 Emirates Melbourne Cup first ballot clause as at 6 October 2009 Total : 28
58 -£71.20 MALDIVIAN (NZ) (Mark Kavanagh) 7 g
5960 -£170.00 VISION AND POWER (NZ) (Joseph Pride) 7 g
61 -£170.00 RED LORD (Anthony Cummings) 6 g
62 -£170.00 MISS MAREN (NZ) (Mick Price) 5 m
63 -£170.00 ALCOPOP (Jake Stephens) 5 g
64 -£170.00 BRITOMART (Rick Hore-Lacy) 6 m
65 -£170.00 HUME (NZ) (Brian Smith) 6 g
66 -£170.00 DANDAAD (NZ) (Bart Cummings) 6 g
6768 -£170.00 ALL IN BLACK (NZ) (John Wheeler) 5 m
69 -£170.00 COURTNEY (NZ) (Pat Carey) 6 m
70 -£170.00 GOLDEN CHARMER (Dan O’Sullivan) 5 m
71 -£170.00 DOUBLY SURE (NZ) (Mark Minervini) 6 g
72 -£170.00 LADY AVACAN (Sue Jaensch) 5 m
73 -£170.00 ROLLINS (Team Hawkes) 4 h
74 -£170.00 PERGOLA (NZ) (Colin & Cindy Alderson) 5 g
75 -£170.00 OAK HEART (Darren Weir) 5 h
76 -£170.00 NAVAL ESCORT (NZ) (Bart Cummings) 4 g
77 -£10.00 JOE BLOW (Bart Cummings) 5 g
78 -£170.00 BLUE OSCAR (NZ) (Michael Kent) 5 g
79 -£170.00 TIMETABLE (GB) (Lee Freedman) 5 g
80 -£170.00 MAESTRO OF MURANO (Roslyn Day) 4 g
81 -£170.00 WOODCUTTER (IRE) (Lee Freedman) 5 g
82 -£170.00 TRENCHTOWN (IRE) (Lee Freedman) 5 g
83 -£170.00 ELEGANCE DRAGON (NZ) (David Hayes) 5 h
84 -£170.00 TERANABA (John Thompson) 6 h
85 -£170.00 LEICA FALCON (Richard Freyer) 8 gAlcopop
. It has now passed the first hurdle, and if it gets another 2kg penalty, it will be on the same weight as Speed Gifted. Alcopop actually has BOTH of Sheikh Hamdan’s MC winners in his pedigree. Didn’t race until a year ago as a 4yo, and has done such things as acting as a cattle pony. I’ll work things out on a spreadsheet on Monday, once the prices have settled down. Looks like I’ll probably have to come up with an opinion of who will win, rather than acting as an accountant.
Starspangledbanner
won the Caulfield Guineas. Trusting lame. Denman had what has been described as a torrid trip. I’ve seen a video of the finish, and I think it is
So You Think
who is finishing quite well on the outside.
Whobegotyou
won the Yalumba nicely. Jockey of Nom Du Jeu reported the horse jarred up, but nothing found afterwards. Maybe that was the palmar condylar illness/injury kicking in??
Allez Wonder
won the Toorak. Everyone keeps on saying how great Bart Cummings is, but how come he was winning the race for the first time since 1976 or whatever? Michelle Payne won her first G1. Don’t take too much notice of jockeys. Is she the aussie bird who was here a couple of months ago? Aussie accent shows up with this horse – it keeps on sounding like LA Wonder when they mention it. Great bunched finish – reminiscent of Magnet Cup finishes of the 70s and 80s.
Apparently there will be rain in Melbourne everyday this week, so that probably scuppers my bets on Cima and Kirklees for the Caulfield Cup on Saturday. I’m going to write the race off, and not go hunting for Soft ground performers.
Remember that Caulfield was rated "Slow" last Tuesday, and yet course records were lowered at the Guineas meeting.
The heaviest predicted rain this week is today, however we only had a sprinkle this morning and there’s no mass cloud cover at this point in time.
The predictions for the remainder of the week are "a few showers", which us Melbournites interpret as "there will be barely a drop at all".
The more I read into this Caulfield Cup, the more I see Cima de Triomphe winning for fun.
Oh, I read that there would also be rain on Saturday itself.
However, maybe it is a similar situation to this country, where it only rains about 30% of the time when it is predicted.
Thanks for your thoughts about Cima De Triomphe – it will keep me warm when I go to bed tonight.
Fun & games are going on with the Caulfield Cup entries at the moment.
Speed Gifted is being declared a non-runner, so some horses previously thought to be being withdrawn by their trainers are now having their subs paid.
I think I heard that the horse hasn’t put back all the weight it lost in the Metropolitan.
Edit: Maldivian has heat in a tendon, and is out of everything. I think Snoop said he was a dodgy proposition.
Plenty of threatening cloud cover today, and but the rain has been scarce. In fact they are watering the track this afternoon.
Visited the international horses at Sandown this morning inc. Cima de Triomphe who was partnered in his racecourse gallop by Damien Oliver, much to the surprise of the media who were not out in their droves given Kirklees’ blowout yesterday. The Godolphin pair remained in their stable for the morning.
The Bedford House duo of CDT and Basaltico worked about a mile on the course proper, with CDT giving his stablemate a good 6-8 lengths start. CDT swept by nearing the post with minimum fuss.
Whilst the lesser fancied stablemate of last year, Bauer, proved us wrong with his Geelong Cup rout and subsequent Melbourne Cup second, Basaltico looks more like a galloping partner for Cima de Triomphe than a contender for either of the Geelong or Melbourne Cups.
Bauer was a unique circumstance where the part owners were in fact Australian (the OTI Syndicate) and purchased a stake in the horse with the Melbourne Cup in mind.
Besides, the Cumanis have brought their most dangerous weapon in 4 years of entering horses in this country. I think they are mighty confident CDT will return home with a trophy and the weight allocated for the Caulfield Cup means Mr. Yoshida has a firm grip on one of the handles already.
Following the news that Speed Gifted and Maldivian have been ruled out, on the back of Alcopop accidentally having to bypass the race, the final field has turned out to be a very even group.
I can only dismiss a select handful from winning and their reasons are simply due to the ground.
The barrier draw will be conducted late tomorrow morning (AEDT) and unlike most years it seems this event will be crucial to the chances of many.
Stay tuned.
18 runner race.
Just heard that in the past 20 years, 15 winners have been drawn 10 or less, and no winner has been drawn higher than 13.
Rather hoping for a win here, as it will pay off all my Melbourne Cup bets, so I might force myself to stay awake for the draw at I think 1am BST.
The two favourites prior to the barrier draw, Vigor and Predatory Pricer, have drawn wide. Vigor will probably be led to his barrier via the grandstand.
Expecting CDT to firm into favouritism shortly.
Caulfield Cup
Cima De Triomphe
Kirklees
Allez Wonder
Master O’Reilly
Predatory PricerThese five will fight out the finish IMO.
The real contenders in the Melbourne Cup.
Locals first
Speed Gifted – The Metrop win was about as impressive a run as you could expect, bringing his Aussie record to 3 wins from 4 starts. The non winning run was a fourth coming from 14th at the 400m mark, second-up. With his impending run in the Cox Plate his weight for the first Tuesday in November is guaranteed at 53kgs. His dosage is in line with past Cup winners.
Must be included.Alcopop – A surprise packet that cannot be over looked.
A son of Jeune, his second dam by At Talaq, but from a family more known for sprinters. He just might have the perfect mix of speed and stamina.
Must include in multiple betting, his last run was simply outstanding.Efficient – 58kgs is a good horses weight, make no mistake Efficient is a 2 miler of the highest class. By super staying sire Zabeel and a past winner of the Cup he is another that Must be included in multiples.
Roman Emperor – Bred to run a strong 2 miles this son of Montjeu should be in the mix with your multiples, even though this post is before his CC run, don’t sack him if he runs poorly at Caulfield. Although drawn nicely in barrier 5 for the CC, early pace could see him locked away on the fence and this horse needs galloping room. Flemington will suit him better.
Internationals
Mourilyan – Comes to Australia as a last start winner at 2800m in listed company where he came from the tail of the field, held up until the last 200m and unleashed a brilliant burst to win easily by 3 lengths. Disappointed slightly in a muddling run race at his previous start in group 3 race behind the very good Godolphin performer Kite Wood. His first up run at 3200m behind Schiaparelli in the group 2 Goodwood Cup was 1st class and although held comfortably on the line the first two were 12 lengths clear of the third placed runner. Again coming from the tail division he chased the winner strongly and at one stage looked likely to catch Schiaparelli.
Kirklees and Cima de Triomphe are genuine Caulfield Cup chances but I doubt their ability at 2 miles. The other international entries would surprise if they were to be placed.
I think everyone is concentrating on CdT’s runs over 10f, and then having doubts about 2 miles.
However, he was also running over 10f as a 2yo. Doesn’t that paint a different picture of his stamina aptitude?
CDT only ran over 9f as a 2yo, not 10f. I think the case still holds though that this horse has a fair amount of stamina.
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