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Melbourne Cup 2009

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  • #247541
    Avatar photoGerald
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    Looked in the archive. I don’t understand why this story isn’t part of Schiaparelli’s file.

    The Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford said: "We are now going to have a serious look at the Prix Foy (over 1m4f) and Schiaparelli is entered in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

    "The alternative is the Grosser Preis at Baden-Baden but it is a bit quick

    . We came for the Kergolay as it looked an easy target."

    Edit: aah, just noticed that Snooperclyde had already read this story:

    "Send him to the land down under, Melbourne Cup is at his mercy! "

    #247543
    Avatar photoGerald
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    Looked in the archive. I don’t understand why this story isn’t part of Schiaparelli’s file.

    Actually it is. I just needed to click on Archive. :roll:

    #247547
    Snooperclyde
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    • Total Posts 139

    Looked in the archive. I don’t understand why this story isn’t part of Schiaparelli’s file.

    Actually it is. I just needed to click on Archive. :roll:

    Schiaparelli’s target is a moving target ATM. He is entered for so many top races, the Godolphin team have all bases covered. Yet his page on the Godolphin site has no reference to his medium term plans, just the entry for Doncaster 11/9. I have been following his page daily and am reasonably sure he will run in this race of 2 1/4 miles and not the Foy.

    It would seem unlikely to then drop back to the 1 1/2 mile Arc or the Caulfield Cup. So the fork in the road would be MC or Cudran.

    #247562
    Snooperclyde
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    • Total Posts 139

    In Cup news from the weekend racing in Oz.

    VIGOR was extremely impressive when he won the Makybe Diva stakes over 1 mile in smart time. Three wide in running, surged to the lead in the straight, headed and then battling with the very smart mare TYPHOON TRACEY to win by a nostril.

    MASTER O’REILLY

    (MC $24 Betstar)[/color:21up8dhz] third and

    C’EST LA GUERRE

    (= $11 favorite Betstar for MC)[/color:21up8dhz] fourth put in eye catching runs.

    Now while the win was excellent, the time was good and the weight VIGOR has been allotted in the Melbourne cup is light (51kgs), history suggests that the late closing horses in this race are better performed than the winner from a MC point of view. The Cox Plate or Caulfield Cup is a better guide for the winner. Note VIGOR was an eye catching runner when third at his 1st start this season at 6f.

    VIGOR is a second to none chance in the Caulfield Cup. Should now be favorite IMO. (Edit is now $6 favorite for CC, $15 for CP and $13 for MC with Betstar)
    [/color:21up8dhz]
    The other performance to black book was

    SPEED GIFTED

    1st up over 1700 metres (1m + 100 metres).
    An easy 2 length winner in H/cap class, the effort had Melbourne Cup hope written all over it. (Edit $10 for CC, $34 for CP and $13 for MC with Betstar)[/color:21up8dhz]

    #247565
    Avatar photoGerald
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    Snoop, can you give an indication of how often the Handicapper will issue a penalty for the Melbourne Cup, and when we will find out about them? For instance, would Vigor get a penalty for the Makybe Diva performance, or will it be ignored as it was only over a mile (I think).

    Also, there are races the winners of which are excluded from the MC ballot. Can you confirm that they are only excluded from the ballot between horses carrying the same weight, rather than getting an automatic entry into the race?

    #247575
    Snooperclyde
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    • Total Posts 139

    Snoop, can you give an indication of how often the Handicapper will issue a penalty for the Melbourne Cup, and when we will find out about them? For instance, would

    Vigor get a penalty for the Makybe Diva performance[/color:1ks9nmrl]

    , or will it be ignored as it was only over a mile (I think).

    Also, there are races the winners of which are excluded from the MC ballot.

    Can you confirm that they are only excluded from the ballot between horses carrying the same weight, rather than getting an automatic entry into the race?[/color:1ks9nmrl]

    1) VIGOR won a weight for age race so no penalty, this race excludes the winner from the Caulfield Cup ballot only.

    2) The winner of a race with a ballot entry is automatically exempt from the ballot of said race, the weight allocated is irrelevant.

    Net result VIGOR will run in weight for age races to avoid any further weight penalty and hope he wins a race with a ballot for the MC. The CC winner however (handicap) will attract a penalty, usually 2kgs and capped at 3kgs.

    SPEED GIFTED will be hoping for a penalty to ensure his place in the Feature races. (I would expect a penalty between 0 and 1kgs for his win in this race).

    The penalties are usually declared within a few days of the race and I will post any issued.

    #247584
    Avatar photoGerald
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    So, if Deutschland somehow manages against the odds to win the Doncaster Cup on Friday, he gets an automatic entry to the Melbourne Cup?

    Not saying its going to happen but it makes it more interesting watching the race to know that fact. Yesterday, there was no mention beforehand in the RP or on Channel 4 that Kirklees and King Of Rome had Melbourne Cup entries. It would be quite nice if there was a Melbourne Cupwatch in the Post.

    The versatile Deutschland, runner-up in the Guinness Galway Hurdle on Thursday, could be Melbourne-bound according to trainer Willie Mullins.

    Six years ago Holy Orders, owned like Deutschland by Allan McLuckie, became something of a celebrity in Melbourne in the lead-up to the race when he refused to exert himself on the gallops and his antics were shown on the nightly TV news.

    Mullins said on Monday: "Allan is quite keen on Deutschland running in the race this year. But it is only a speculative entry at this stage. We’ll see how he gets on in the Ebor and take things from there. He has gone up 22lb on the Flat this year and might still be improving."

    Came 8th in the Ebor, but beaten less than 3 lengths, so I suppose the dream still survives.

    Askar Tau and Profound Beauty are very likely to be in action next weekend, but they don’t need to win, as they’ll just get in anyway (depending upon how many horses get penalties).

    #247669
    Avatar photoGerald
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    Just read on the betfair forum that a top 8 finish in the Caulfield Cup guarantees a line-up in the Melburne Cup (so long as you’re entered).

    Is that true?

    If it is, it makes a nightmare of trying to work out who’ll end up running in the race.

    #247707
    Snooperclyde
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    • Total Posts 139

    Just read on the betfair forum that a top 8 finish in the Caulfield Cup guarantees a line-up in the Melburne Cup (so long as you’re entered).

    Is that true?

    If it is, it makes a nightmare of trying to work out who’ll end up running in the race.

    The prize money is paid back to tenth place in the Melbourne cup = true.

    The statement on betfair forum = nonsense.

    The winner of the following, if any should be a nomination and a first, second, third and final acceptor for the 2009 Emirates Melbourne Cup, shall be exempt from any ballot on this race:

    – 2009 VRC Saab Quality
    – 2009 AAMI Victoria Derby
    – 2009 Crown Mackinnon Stakes
    – 2009 MVRC Cox Plate
    – 2009 MRC Caulfield Cup
    – 2009 Doncaster Cup (UK)
    – 2009 Irish St Leger (IRE)
    – 2009 Tenno Sho (Spring) (JPN)
    – 2009 Arlington Million (USA)
    – 2009 San Juan Capistrano (USA)
    – 2009 ARB Australian Stayers Challenge

    Hope this clears any confusion Gerald

    #247708
    Snooperclyde
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    Just for interest the following ballot numbers.

    BALLOT HISTORY

    2008 3 Ballots
    2007 7 Ballots
    2006 7 Ballots
    2005 1 Ballot
    2004 6 Ballots
    2003 2 Ballots
    2002 1 Ballot
    2001 10 Ballots
    2000 6 Ballots
    1999 1 Ballot
    1998 8 Ballots
    1997 0 Ballots (22 Acceptors)
    1996 8 Ballots
    1995 0 Ballots (21 Acceptors)
    1994 4 Ballots
    1993 4 Ballots

    #247731
    Snooperclyde
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    • Total Posts 139

    The agony might turn to ecstasy.

    Schiaparelli among entries for Irish Field St Leger :D

    If this eventuates and he tackles Profound Beauty and Changingoftheguard then a good result could = Melbourne Cup. :) :D :D

    This quote from Wikipedia

    There is presently a bonus prize of AUD $500,000 offered to any winner who subsequently wins the Melbourne Cup in the same year.

    #247802
    Avatar photoGerald
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    One race that ought to be added to that ticket list is the St Leger itself. I suppose they’re thinking that Northern Hemisphere 3yos won’t/don’t come down for the race, but that is forgetting APO’B. Or maybe they don’t want them running, because they are hard to assess/handicap.

    I have to admit that I have being rolling about like a loose cannon in the past couple of days, in the same manner I attacked the Royal Hunt Cup. With the first forfeit stage tomorrow, I might as well ‘fess up, so we can decide whether I am as bad a punter as I am a tipster.

    WIN

    52p @ 40 Schiaparelli
    £2 @ 95 Kirklees
    £2 @ 110 Ista Kareem
    52p @ 100 Askar Tau
    £2.85 @ 110 Cima De Triomphe
    £2.57 @ 120 Basaltico
    £4 @ 110 Eastern Anthem
    £2.66 @ 424.81 Macarthur
    52p @ 190 Maldivian
    £2 @ 200 Voila Ici
    £4.04 @ 135.15 Age Of Reason
    £2 @ 720 Deutschland
    26p @ 1000 Friston Forest
    £12.65 @ 367.1 King Of Rome
    £3 @ 574.03 Crime Scene
    £4.52 @ 125.75 Fiumicino
    £2.61 @ 600 Scintillo
    £2 @ 100 Tinseltown
    £10.24 @ 141.35 Light Vision
    £3 @ 140 Nom De Jeu[/color:oi2gys7m]
    £10 @ 1 Mad Rush (placed earlier this year, before he was injured, and before I read that he wouldn’t have been going to the MC anyway. :oops: )
    [/color:oi2gys7m]

    PLACE

    £3.09 @ 100 Empires Choice

    I’ve got a couple of bets for the Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup, but I’d like to keep something to myself. (Placed one of the bets on the wrong horse.)

    Tinseltown was my second bet, and it was intended as a joke to wind up Snoop, but I never got around to posting it. Most winners begin with T. Most winners have a one word name. Most winners are bay. Hopefully connections will keep up the payments, and I can get my £2 back when the horse is balloted out.

    The Macarthur bet is dodgy, as the horse is probably injured.

    Same story with Scintillo – something went amiss in the King George. However, had to have the bet because of this comment:-

    "Scintillo won a Group 1 in Italy as a two-year-old and he loves travelling." 8)

    I’m a bit worried that Nom De Jeu might be out – he is a bit close to the bottom of the list, where all the scratchings etc are placed.

    I like Light Vision because he has won 10 races, and he won a 1m5f h’cap [edit, sorry, it was a Listed Race, and not a h’cap[further edir: I was right the first time, sort of: Listed H’cap] ] at Flemington last year. Came 2nd recently, and I’m assuming he will win a race, if he needs to, to get into the Cup.

    #247803
    Avatar photoGerald
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    Yes, I was thinking about Moe with the Scintillo stuff, about him travelling with his bucket and spade, and visiting museums.

    #247821
    Avatar photoGerald
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    Munsef is running in the Stockholm Cup on Sunday. Melbourne Cup is still on the agenda.

    Apparently there is one late entrant to the Cup. Either some Kiwi horse called Sculptor, or a horse called Kiwi Sculptor. :lol:

    #247892
    Snooperclyde
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    • Total Posts 139

    Well Schiaparelli is out so down the tube goes about two thousand in all sorts of bets.

    I still have "Whobegotyou" (raging favorite) in the Cox Plate into "Eastern Anthem" in the Melbourne Cup @ 250/1, 12.5k result.

    Time will tell if Schiaparelli deserved my admiration, but I am confident that his best is soon to come and just maybe, the decision to miss Australia will be regretful.

    #247893
    Avatar photoGerald
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    • Total Posts 4293

    Okay, the following (from near the top of the h’cap) have all scratched at the first forfeit stage:

    Schiaparelli
    Court Vision
    Nom De Jeu
    Doctor Fremantle
    Macarthur
    Volia Ici
    Rebel Raider
    Age Of Reason
    King Of Rome
    Metal Bender
    Scintillo
    Askar Tau
    Orion Star
    Pointilliste
    Triple Honour
    Alessandro Volta
    Empires Choice
    Friston Forest

    About half my stake is gone, but I’m not too worried as the same thing happened at the entry stage of the Grand National. However, on that occasion it was compensated by my prices having gone in, which hasn’t really happened too much here.

    At the moment the ballot would take place between the horses on 52.5 kgs.

    I am content that my two bets with the most invested, Light Vision and Fiumicino are sound.

    I suppose the mistake that I made was being optimistic that if a horse didn’t have any entries, then their connections were serious about going Down Under, rather then the horse being seriously injured or just pottering around. This applied to Macarthur, Voila Ici, King of Rome and Scintillo. I must say I am surprised that de Kock doesn’t have any contenders – the Maktoum owner can certainly afford the entry fees.

    I’m not too keen on getting involved with the Coolmore horses. When he got off last year, Murtagh said they had brought the wrong type of horse. I’m not too sure how these four are different.

    Anyway, I’ve done a little bit of scratching around , and come up with some meagre replenishments.

    52p @ 180 Black Mamba – ran in NZ Oaks, before shipping to USA, so isn’t a real USA entrant. I suppose I’m only really doing this because it only cost 52p instead of £2.
    £1.30 @ 200 Kibbutz – Won Victoria Derby, and has been on the sidelines a couple of times since. I’m not too worried about it being last on its comeback. I might go in again.
    £2.61 @ 630 Gallions Reach – 2nd in 2 mile Auckland Cup.
    [/color:3ipf81s1]

    The last few winners were all in the top half of the h’cap, so I don’t really care to delve into the nether regions.

    #248322
    Avatar photoGerald
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    Doesn’t look good for Kibbutz. :cry:

    Don’t normally take too much notice of market moves, but this race is on the other side of the World.

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