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Melbourne Cup 2009

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  • #12472
    Snooperclyde
    Member
    • Total Posts 139

    I would like to hear about the credentials of some of the Northern hemisphere entrants and the following link has the entrants.
    http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/p_Inte … files.aspx

    From what I have seen from recent form and 3yo form, Schiaparelli looks the perfect type but the push seems to be he will run in the “Arc”. 1m4f is not his best distance IMO and I think the 2m of the Melbourne Cup is much more to his liking.
    http://world-horse-racing.blogspot.com/ … orlay.html

    Early I know, but has anyone started the search for the winner?

    #245520
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8373

    I had a fancy for Johann Zoffany for the Ebor, so saw his entry for the Melbourne Cup with interest. I think I’d have to have a small bet on Munsef who is running out of his skin at the moment..they mentioned his going to Australia at the weekend; annoyingly can’t remember what they said. As for Warringah, what a mighty race he would run. Are Luca Cumanis’ horses running well at the moment? Had a feeling that they were a bit hit and miss. I love listening to this race in the early hours of the morning and would love to be there one day!

    #245523
    MDeering
    Member
    • Total Posts 1688

    How about researching yourself Snooper?

    Schiaparelli’s Arc-bound and Godolphin would not dare entertain a race on such fast, firm ground.

    #245535
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    As far as the Melbourne Cup geos that horse who beat Mourayan looked the business and I see he’s fav but that’s one tough race to win. If Europe want to win it they better send all the Arc horses over :lol: This Rebel Raider looks one hard horse to beat. She led a long way out in the South Oz Derby and one horse came charging out the pack like it was going to shoot past her….once it got to her quarters she changed gear and left it behind…then at the home turn 1/2 dozen horses all started to quicken and the thing just quickened again and nothing got a blow in….no real idea how the oppostion fairs but she looks very good. Our bookies will always stick ours up as favs at this time but on the day it could be an Aussie horse who heads the market.

    I doubt if Schiaparelli will end up running in the Arc either unless it’s really soft and a stamina test. I suppose it would do no harm to run him again but he was slaughtered in the race last year and his win over Mourilyan falls well sort of the form it takes to win an Arc.

    #245541
    Imperial Call
    Member
    • Total Posts 2184

    Profound Beauty was fifth last year and she has definitely improved since. Think the Leger at the Curragh is next on her agenda. I’d be worried about what weight she’ll be allotted going down under though.

    Dermot Weld has proved he can do it and hopefully she’ll follow in the footsteps of Vintage Crop and Media Puzzle.

    #245554
    Snooperclyde
    Member
    • Total Posts 139

    How about researching yourself Snooper?

    Schiaparelli’s Arc-bound and Godolphin would not dare entertain a race on such fast, firm ground.

    I have done quite a bit of research Miles, but I thought it could do no harm asking this forum of European enthusiasts if they had an eye for an up and coming type that may have looked a likely chance. Living in Australia I rarely see any vision of the European contenders and replays are not always available.

    I also consider this as part of my research.

    Schiaparelli has been entered for both the Caulfield Cup and the Melbourne Cup so someone at Godolphin seemingly crazy perhaps, did dare to entertain the idea.
    If you have a careful look at Schiaparelli’s record you will see he actually races extremely well on good surfaces like Sundays win in the Darley Prix Kergorlay at Deauville.

    I also noted Frankie said quote "Dettori said: "The competition did fall apart a bit in this race but Schiaparelli is a

    much better horse on good to soft ground

    ." It had been widely stated by Godolphin that Schiaparelli likes soft/heavy ground and I thought Frankie was stating his opinion out loud.

    His Arc 13th did nothing to command a repeat attempt this year although I admit he seems to be going better ATM.

    Last year Schiaparelli was much longer in the betting for the MC but this year he is quoted at 20/1 in most British firms and only 25/1 over here. Where there is smoke…

    I thought with the win of "All the Good" in the Caulfield Cup last year may have given extra incentive for Godolphin to have a serious go at the Melbourne Cup as they appear to have mastered the travel requirements and the race is worth 5 million dollars.
    Do they have another runner in mind capable of winning?

    Thank you moehat, Fist and Imperial Call. I will take a close look at your suggestions, a few dollars at very big odds early is well worth the trouble.

    :wink:

    #245649
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Absolutely no harm in asking at all mate and I for one only know what I read about Aussie horses. Be glad to hear what anyone has to say with regards to hw they see the ace or how the Aussie bookies are betting on it. I only know about Rebel Raider because she’s in the betting and I found a video of eher last race.

    Same way as Myles only knows what he reads but apparantly if we miss something he read we’re not as smart as him :roll:

    #245670
    MDeering
    Member
    • Total Posts 1688

    Snooper took my question the right way, Fist – it was legitimate, I was curious but probably a little strong and poorly executed.

    Don’t demonize me, please.

    Rebel Raider is an entire, by the way.

    #245703
    Snooperclyde
    Member
    • Total Posts 139

    Absolutely no harm in asking at all mate and I for one only know what I read about Aussie horses. Be glad to hear what anyone has to say with regards to how they see the race or how the Aussie bookies are betting on it. I only know about Rebel Raider because he’s in the betting and I found a video of his last race.

    My own opinion of Rebel Raider is mixed.
    The 5 career wins from 16 starts have group 1 races involved which is great.
    The down side is the 7 unplaced runs have on occasion been woeful.
    The Victoria Derby (12 furlongs) win was at 100/1 and he beat "Whobegotyou" into second. While I believe Whobegotyou is a superstar I feel he is best suited at distances of 10 furlongs or less, so it was no surprise he failed to show his normal acceleration at the end of 2500 metres. This also has me questioning the strength of this years derby.

    The Adelaide Derby win was very impressive but this race has been a poor guide with Melbourne Cup hopefuls.
    Therefore IMO Rebel Raider should be about 25/1 and no more than an outside chance to win.

    Last Years winner "Viewed" will carry far more weight and with all due respect to Aiden O’brien, his tactics not only killed the chances of his own runners but also places doubt over the result.

    Efficient clearly has the class, but with injury and lack of racing must place some doubt on his chances, not to mention he also will be weighted highly.

    C`est la Guerre i feel has the most improvement of the locals and should be close to favorite.

    Profound Beauty is racing extra well and must be rated highly.

    Changingoftheguard obviously has respect but I doubt he will still be competitive come November, being a young horse it is hard to hold good form.

    The following facts about Schiaparelli have mostly been overlooked.

    Here is the proof, and Frankie said as much after Schiaparelli’s win on sunday, quote "Dettori said: "The competition did fall apart a bit in this race but Schiaparelli is a much better horse on good to soft ground."

    Good Ground – 13 starts, 9 wins (4 at group1), 1 second (group 1), 1 third (group 2), twice unplaced (group1 and group 2), wins 69%, placed 85%, unplaced 15%.

    Good to soft – 2 starts, no wins, 1 second (group 1), no third placing, 1 unplaced ( Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1)), Wins 0%, placed 50%, unplaced 50%.

    Soft – 1 start, third group 2, (comment in running states – "Set slow pace, headed 2f out, kept on") leading with a slow pace Schiaparelli should have won easily if he was truly suited on the slow surface.

    Heavy – 2 starts, 2 wins, 1 win his first start in a 2k race, other win group 2 race with Schiaparelli starting even money favorite! The second horse "Poseidon Adventure" has a record of 50% placed in slow/heavy and 60% placed on better going. The third horse "Oriental Tiger" was a maiden at 16/1 at the time. The win was more about the form, class and toughness of Schiaparelli than his ability on heavy ground. Schiaparelli has earned triple the prize money of the runners behind him in this race.

    I have read about the hoof problem of past years and understand the teams concern. But he is racing back to his best and as a 6yo stallion should take each race like it may be his last.

    Not to insult his previous German trainer, but my mail is he is just a run of the mill trainer. Godolphin should be able to get the best from this horse with all their knowledge.

    #245828
    Snooperclyde
    Member
    • Total Posts 139

    Let’s look at the favorites

    Profound Beauty
    Ran 5th in the Cup last year and has returned to the track with three strong wins. Has a master trainer in Dermot Weld having twice won the Cup. Has won up to 14f so the 16f should be no trouble.
    Only one huge negative – no progeny of Danehill have ever won the Cup and many have tried including several favorites! Danehill has been our greatest stallion so this statistic is a concern.

    C`Est La Guerre
    Ran 3rd in the Cup last year, the stable has a huge opinion of him and the money has come for him already. Second favorite.
    The negatives – stamina is present down the dam line but the only black type winner in recent generations won at 6f. C`Est La Guerre must draw stamina from well back.

    Changingoftheguard and Rebel Raider are next in betting and have been discussed previously.

    Speed Gifted
    Former Cumani galloper now in the hands of Master Aussie trainer Lee Freedman. Won his only Australian start in May 2009 over 1mile. Bred to stay and must keep a close watch on this horse, he could be the winner and sure to have a light weight, might need to qualify but the mail from the stable is confident he will give the Cup a big shake.

    Efficient
    2007 winner that was injured in 08. Will be close to top weight but deserves the respect. Efficient won with ease in 07 and there is no doubting his ability at 2 miles. If right he could easily win this race again.
    Must have a saver on this horse if you choose one of his rivals. The horse to beat.

    Roman Emperor
    AJC Derby winner trained by the one and only Bart Cummings. So successful has Bart been in the Cup that it should one day be renamed the "Bart Cummings Melbourne Cup".
    Son of Montjeu that will be primed to the minute for the big race. Huge chance. Interestingly out of a dam by "Last tycoon" and this nick with the Northern dancer sire line has been outstanding in the production of black type winners in Australia.

    Viewed
    Last years winner trained by Bart Cummings.
    Will have his fair share of weight but if the rain comes he is likely to repeat the win. Viewed is arguably better on a heavy track yet he was able to win last year on a good surface so acts on all ground.

    #246466
    Snooperclyde
    Member
    • Total Posts 139

    The win of Mourilyan at Goodwood on Saturday was very good.
    I have read he might be bound for America.

    The turn of foot he has shown in his current campaign has been eye catching to say the least.
    A line could be drawn through his performances and " All the Good" at this time last year and a Caulfield Cup would not be beyond his current ability.

    Unfortunately Mourilyan has not entered for the Caulfield Cup so if he was to come to Australia the 2 miles of the Melbourne Cup is his race. I am unconvinced his turn of foot would be as effective in this race. Many fast finishers have had their sprint finish dulled in the Melbourne Cup.

    What a shame he was not entered in the Caulfield Cup where his chances would have been far better!

    Hope he heads this way though as he clearly is racing very well.

    #246632
    Snooperclyde
    Member
    • Total Posts 139

    C`Est La Guerre has been backed into outright favorite with one of Australia’s biggest bookmakers Eskanders "Betstar" https://www.betstar.com.au/

    $11 are the odds available however some bookmakers have the price up to $17.

    For those who like this horse some juicy odds are available at Betfair.

    If you are allowed to bet in Australia and want good prices for the European horses here are some links to other bookmaking sites.

    TAB Ozbet direct link to Cup – https://www.ozbet.com.au/UISecure/Sport … ortSeq=431

    Centrbet racing – http://centrebet.com/cust?action=GoRacing

    Sportingbet Australia – http://www.sportingbet.com.au

    Doublebet – http://www.doublebet.com/

    There are more but these few should give a few options (sorry to those bookmakers not mentioned, place your own link in this discussion).

    Weights for the Melbourne Cup are released Wednesday 2/9 (tomorrow).

    #246665
    Snooperclyde
    Member
    • Total Posts 139

    As luck would have it we can preview this link to see the international runners weight’s for the Melbourne Cup.

    A day before the official release.

    http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/p_Inte … files.aspx

    Click on your horse to see the weight allotted. :D

    #246782
    Snooperclyde
    Member
    • Total Posts 139

    Is there any interest in the Melbourne Cup or am I just posting my own thoughts.

    Quote from article on "racing and sports" website.

    In another spring development dual Derby winner Rebel Raider pulled up sore after a gallop on Wednesday and will not start in Saturday’s Makybe Diva Stakes.

    Trainer Leon Macdonald has ordered scans of Rebel Raider’s hind fetlock before deciding on his immediate plans.

    #246853
    Snooperclyde
    Member
    • Total Posts 139

    The South Australian trained 2008 VRC Victoria Derby, and 2009 SA Derby, winner

    Rebel Raider is out of further spring racing after a bone chip

    in a rear fetlock joint was discovered after trackwork on Wednesday.
    Co-trainer Leon Macdonald confirmed on Thursday that an operation was required and that would mean that the four-year-old Reset entire would miss the spring, and he was doubtful about an autumn campaign as well after Rebel Raider not adapting to the Sydney way of the racing in his 2009 autumn racing.
    Macdonald said that the injury was noticed after Rebel Raider’s trackwork on Wednesday and subsequent x-rays showed the bone chip. It was expected that surgery would be undertaken to remove the chip.
    “I do not think that there is any doubt that he will recover fully from it, especially being a hind leg, but it has just come at a bad time,” said Macdonald on Sport 927.
    “There is still a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and the Melbourne Cup, we all know that, but you do not very often get into a race where you think you might have a chance,” he said.
    Macdonald said that if Rebel Raider had ‘run and won well’ then an international campaign would have been considered.
    But that this would now be also on hold with Macdonald saying that the horse would have had to prove himself before any such campaign. Connections were considering a possible trip taking in the Dubai World Cup meeting in Dubai, and then onto England.
    Rebel Raider was quoted at $21.00 for the BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m), and he was second equal with Viewed and Efficient (NZ) on $14, behind Irish mare Profound Beauty on $11.00 for the Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m).
    His opening race of the spring was in the listed Penny Edition over an unsuitable 1400m on August 22nd, with a third the result, and that will be the extent of this year’s campaign. Already a dual Group 1 winner after his Victoria and SA Derby wins, Rebel Raider also has the Group 3 Sires’ Produce over 1600m, and listed Chairman’s Stakes over 2000m, both at Morphettville, to his credit.
    Overall Rebel Raider’s race record to-date is 16 races for five wins and four placings, with stakes of $1.3m.

    #246856
    MDeering
    Member
    • Total Posts 1688

    Is there any interest in the Melbourne Cup or am I just posting my own thoughts.

    Right now? Probably not. You can’t blame the TRF audience for choosing the Irish Champion, Prix du Moulin, St Leger, Arc and pre-season NH talk over the Melbourne Cup.

    #246901
    Himself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3777

    Having attended The Melbourne Cup in 1998, I have to say that it was a fantastic experience and one which I will never forget. Frankie Dettori rode non stayer, Faithful Son that day for Godolphin, but was well beaten. The New Zealand trained, Jezabeel, and ridden by Chris Munce, as I recall.

    Frankie would have a better chance of running much closer if Schiaperelli were to take his chance, but I think the boys in blue will opt for the big one in Paris instead – especially if soft ground is forecast.

    I firmly believe that The Melbourne Cup favours antipodean trained horses and it takes an exceptional performance from outsiders ( especially Europeans ) to take the prize away from them.

    Vintage Crop’s 1993 win springs to mind.

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

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