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Scintillo is going for the Hong Kong Vase in December, which makes me feel better about having had an abortive bet on him for this.
The Vase is the one over 12f right? Surely the 10f cup makes much more sense, he doesn’t get a properly run 12f.
Luca was second with Purple Moon last year, and he complained after about the slow pace, so that might suit Scintillo if it happens again.
Luca was second with Purple Moon last year, and he complained after about the slow pace, so that might suit Scintillo if it happens again.
AOB thought the MC was run at a slow pace so he thought he would just right the wrong and collect the cash…………more homework needed!!!
Septimus, a war horse looked no more than an onlooker in 2008 and the two other runners finished closer to last than first.
It might be a sticking point, but maybe we Aussies know a serious contender when we see one.
The first run to the turn requires some speed to get a good position. That early energy waste is likely to haunt you at the finish line.
I can assure you that we Aussies believe we have the ability to pick a serious threat.
It seems the Northern Hemisphere has some ego’s to overcome or the learning may take some time!
Hi Snoop, Zarkava & I were digressing about the Hong Kong Vase.
I am intrigued by this question of what kind of horse is required for the MC though. Murtagh said after the race last year that Ballydoyle had brought the wrong kind of horse, but there wasn’t any expanding about what the right kind of horse was.
Maybe some ego’s need to learn
But maybe some decent handicapping would help along the line….Makybe Diva winning 3 melbourne Cups and going up only 15lb in the handicap is bordering on insanity especially since she won countless other top races in due process….maybe they dont allow horses in OZZ carry more than 121lb or more than 8 and half stone but some serious questions need to be asked since Yeats was given 59 KG in 08 yet Makybe Diva had 58KG and she was going for 3 in a row in 06
Maybe some ego’s need to learn
But maybe some decent handicapping would help along the line….Makybe Diva winning 3 melbourne Cups and going up only 15lb in the handicap is bordering on insanity especially since she won countless other top races in due process….maybe they dont allow horses in OZZ carry more than 121lb or more than 8 and half stone but some serious questions need to be asked since Yeats was given 59 KG in 08 yet Makybe Diva had 58KG and she was going for 3 in a row in 06
True. the handicapper has been harsh on your lot over the years but now time has shown that the Aussie stayers are more than competitive.
This year two Aussie horses have to top weight.
Makybe Diva is a mare and 2.5kgs allowance is given to mares. Prior to Makybe Diva no mare had carried more than 53.5kgs to victory. 1988 was the last mare to win with 53.5kgs…….20 years ago!
The Diva was a champion mare.
Hi Snoop, Zarkava & I were digressing about the Hong Kong Vase.
I am intrigued by this question of what kind of horse is required for the MC though. Murtagh said after the race last year that Ballydoyle had brought the wrong kind of horse, but there wasn’t any expanding about what the right kind of horse was.
I must admit to jumping on the "slow pace" excuse a bit harshly.
Horses not suited
Stayers that grind their opponents into the ground by increasing the tempo more than 5f from the finish. (most staying races are run this way in Europe excepting the pace makers and they usually are gone at the top of the home straight).
Stayers that need a slow and steady first 5f to get into rhythm (this can be overcome if the horse can make steady ground mid race).eg –
Yeats
is a super stayer but his wins have been off the back of a steady start. When he starts to apply pressure far from home he breaks the oppositions hearts. While
Yeats
top speed is not great he bypasses the pain barrier and gallops on relentlessly.
Septimus
may have been better suited but the suicidal pace set by OB runners last year was his down fall. The OB runners were quality and fit no doubt but the first 5f of the MCup are faster than races run in Europe. Being so close to the lead means his runners were over racing compared to the norm at that stage of a race. The pace in a MCup then slows for the next 7f (approximate distances only) this is why the OB runners moved further in front during this stage (an Aussie jockey would have restrained his mount to let him re-energize). Finally the pressure goes on rapidly in the last 4f as runners make their move.
Runners suited
Type 1) A fast beginner or front runner that can switch off and relax mid race, then build up the pace again steadily from the 5f, then hit top speed at the clock tower (just over 2f out) and maintain that speed to the line.Type 2) A horse that settles and races in a relaxed manner then sprints powerfully for the last 3f. This type of runner needs luck in the big 24 horse field.
Summary
Aussie jockeys are used to running this way and can often bring the horses back under them after a fast beginning. (to compare watch Dettori’s ride on
Schiaparelli
in the Goodwood Cup when he was able to relax his mount soon after the start to avoid a speed battle with
Tungsten Strike
– this is most evident in the post race replay or after race analysis……….. keep watching and listening to the commentators until the replay is finished!). This type of runner is preferred IMO.
The mystery of why some modest European performers ieMedia Puzzle, Bauer
can perform above expectation in Australia……….the different running pattern suits.
http://src.racingvictoria.net.au/spring … ingtv.aspx
Follow this link and watch the 2006 Melbourne Cup.
Delta Blues
wins after beginning well, relaxing then pushing to the lead at the right time.
Pop Rock
settles mid field, then charges home to just miss.
Yeats
goes to the front too early.
Gordieland
settles well back but does not improve mid race and has not got the sprint to compete in the straight.
Watch the 08 MCup to see the OB runners and their misfortune.
This is not an exact science but I have tried to explain what is required, I hope it helps in some way.[/u]
Thanks Snoop. For some reason I only got around to reading this after being home for 8+ hours.
Yh fair enough Super.
Makybe Diva was just one of the greatest mares ever but sometimes as a outsider looking in and see Yeats and Septimus last year being lumped with Top Weight is hard to take.
Great race and will be watching it for sure
I’ve come across the current Elimination Order.
A question has been answered, which I hadn’t gotten around to asking, because I didn’t want to bug you. WFA plus a nominal sex allowance is taken into account in determining elimination order. In British terms, this would mean that in the Ebor a 3yo filly rated 87 and a 5yo mare rated 87 and a 3yo colt rated 90 and a 5yo gelding rated 90 would be regarded as equal for elimination purposes, and a ballot would take place amongst them, if they were on the cusp. There has been a lot of disquiet recently that the 3yos are kept out of the Ebor by "inferior" older horses, who are carrying more weight, and there is some sort of momentum behind a shift to something like this.
I do have a question though, Snoop. After the first 70 or so horses in the elimination order, the remainder haven’t passed the first ballot clause. Rather surprisingly to me this includes both Maldivian and Cima De Triomphe. From what is written next to the first 70, I gain the impression that priority is given to horses that have finished in the first three of a Group race of 2300m+, or of a race of a certain value [60k+?] of 2300m+ , or won a Listed Race with same distance criterion. Is that about right?
I’ve come across the current Elimination Order.
I do have a question though, Snoop. After the first 70 or so horses in the elimination order, the remainder haven’t passed the first ballot clause. Rather surprisingly to me this includes both Maldivian and Cima De Triomphe. From what is written next to the first 70, I gain the impression that priority is given to horses that have finished in the first three of a Group race of 2300m+, or of a race of a certain value [60k+?] of 2300m+ , or won a Listed Race with same distance criterion. Is that about right?
That’s right, it is a qualifying requirement.
However the Cox Plate winner is exempt from the ballot. (2040 metres). So Maldivian would qualify if he repeats the Cox Plate win.
He won’t run though, he is behind in his preparation because of a back muscle tear. While his trainer is confident he is over the problem it will be a race against time to have him fit enough for the CP and the MC would be out of the question IMO.Australian training methods are different to European methods but that is another essay!
cheers
Okay, I haven’t been able to find the race conditions for 2009, but based upon those for a couple of years, the first hurdle seems to be
First 3 in a Group race of 2300m+
Won Listed Race of 2300m+
Come 1st-5th in a race of 2300m+ and picked up $60,000+ prize money for doing so.All of this would be for a race since 1 August 2007?
Came across this for 2008:
VRC announced changes to 2008 Melbourne Cup race conditions 17 Mar 2008
Victoria Racing ClubThe Chief Executive of the Victoria Racing Club, Dale Monteith, on Monday announced the following changes to the conditions for the 2008 Emirates Melbourne Cup.
Ballot Exempt Races
• The L’Oreal Paris Mackinnon Stakes has for the first time been added to the list of ballot exempt races (winner only) into the Emirates Melbourne Cup. (As this race is a nonhandicap of less than 2300 metres, the winner will remain not liable for a weight penalty).
• The 3200 metres JRA Tenno Sho (Spring) (also known as Emperor’s Cup) due to be run at Kyoto, Japan, on 4 May 2008, has for the first time been added to the list of ballot exempt races (winner only) into the Emirates Melbourne Cup. Balloting Conditions
• For the first time, the 2nd & 3rd placegetters in the current year’s Cox Plate and Mackinnon Stakes respectively will pass the first clause of balloting for the Emirates Melbourne Cup. (This will not, however, guarantee a horse an Emirates Melbourne Cup start if it is lowly weighted).
• For the first time, the 6th, 7th & 8th placegetters in the current year’s Caulfield Cup will also pass the first clause of balloting for the Emirates Melbourne Cup. (This also will not guarantee a horse a Cup start if it is lowly weighted. It should also be noted that 4th & 5th placegetters in the 2008 Caulfield Cup will already satisfy the 2008 Emirates Melbourne Cup ballot clause, as in the past – by having “earned $60,000 or more for a
placing of 1st – 5th in a flat race of 2300 metres or further since 1 August 2006.”)So if Cima De Triomphe comes in the first eight of the Caulfield Cup, he will pass the first Hurdle.
Speed Gifted is another horse that hasn’t passed the first hurdle yet.
When it comes to getting into the race, horses that have passed this hurdle have priority over horses that haven’t.
The winners of the races mentioned in an earlier thread are exempt from the ballot, and have automatic entry to the Melbourne Cup (so long as they are paid up.)
I’ve sort of run out of horses to have bets on in the Melbourne Cup, so I may as well list what I’ve done.
Number in red on the right is the Ballot Order as of last Thursday.[/color:3lf5uz5g]
If there is a number in brackets next to it, it would be roughly the horse’s Ballot Order if it passes the hurdle mentioned a couple of posts ago.Main bets
£4 @ 110 Eastern Anthem [/color:3lf5uz5g] 2 [/color:3lf5uz5g]
£2 @ 95 Kirklees [/color:3lf5uz5g] 5 [/color:3lf5uz5g]
£4.52 @ 125.75 Fiumicino [/color:3lf5uz5g] 7 [/color:3lf5uz5g]
£2 @ 100 Zarita [/color:3lf5uz5g] 18 [/color:3lf5uz5g]
£2 @ 90 Haris Tweed [/color:3lf5uz5g] 19 [/color:3lf5uz5g]
£2 @ 110 Ista Kareem [/color:3lf5uz5g] 20 [/color:3lf5uz5g]
£2.04 @ 172.55 Ready To Lift [/color:3lf5uz5g] 24 [/color:3lf5uz5g]
£3 @ 574.03 Crime Scene [/color:3lf5uz5g] 25 [/color:3lf5uz5g]
£1.30 @ 200 Kibbutz [/color:3lf5uz5g] 27 [/color:3lf5uz5g]
£11.79 @ 143.8 Light Vision [/color:3lf5uz5g] 29 [/color:3lf5uz5g]
£2.98 @ 140 Warringah [/color:3lf5uz5g] 31 [/color:3lf5uz5g]
£2.61 @ 630 Gallions Reach [/color:3lf5uz5g] 34 [/color:3lf5uz5g]
£2.57 @ 120 Basaltico [/color:3lf5uz5g] 39 [/color:3lf5uz5g]
£2.52 @ 98.1 Mr Tipsy [/color:3lf5uz5g] 43 [/color:3lf5uz5g]
£2 @ 270 Sugar Ray [/color:3lf5uz5g] 46 [/color:3lf5uz5g]
£2 @ 100 Tinseltown [/color:3lf5uz5g] 50 [/color:3lf5uz5g]
£2.85 @ 110 Cima De Triomphe [/color:3lf5uz5g] 72 [/color:3lf5uz5g] (10)
£4.14 @ 100 Leica Ding [/color:3lf5uz5g] 96 [/color:3lf5uz5g] (71)
£2 @ 720 Deutschland [/color:3lf5uz5g] 114 [/color:3lf5uz5g] (71)Savers & sub-savers
£4 @ 30 Roman Emperor [/color:3lf5uz5g] 8 [/color:3lf5uz5g]
£2.59 @ 30 Master O’Reilly [/color:3lf5uz5g] 10 [/color:3lf5uz5g]
£1.56 @ 46 Mourilyan [/color:3lf5uz5g] 14 [/color:3lf5uz5g]
£5 @ 17.5 Vigor [/color:3lf5uz5g] 40 [/color:3lf5uz5g]
52p @ 190 Maldivian [/color:3lf5uz5g] 71 [/color:3lf5uz5g] (2)
52p @ 180 Black Mamba [/color:3lf5uz5g] 74 [/color:3lf5uz5g] (17)
93p @ 80 Directa King [/color:3lf5uz5g] 121 [/color:3lf5uz5g] (71)Losers
£4.04 @ 1 Age Of Reason
52p @ 1 Askar Tau
26p @ 1 Friston Forest
£12.65 @ 1 King Of Rome
£2.66 @ 1 Macarthur
£10 @ 1 Mad Rush
£3 @ 1 Nom De Jeu
52p @ 1 Schiaparelli
£2.61 @ 1 Scintillo
£2 @ 1 Voila Ici [/color:3lf5uz5g]I’ll be a little bit more focussed next year.
I tend to be more aggresive.
This far out I will pick one horse that I believe will win and couple that horse with other great chances in the other two races. (Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate).
I had
Sciaparelli
lost badly.
I now have
Eastern Anthem
because I read on the Godolphin site that he was to enter quarantine with
Kirklees
and co. I had previously thought he would be the Godolphin Arc runner.
Now I hear
Eastern Anthem
did not enter quarantine and may not be coming at all.
This will be a major bummer as I have him coupled to
Whobegotyou
in the Cox Plate (when the odds were much better) and he looks a good thing. Also
Master O’reilly
in the Caulfield Cup. He won the race two years ago and only has 55kgs this year. His last run in the Makybe Diva stakes was first class, the run of the race along with the winner
Vigor
.Then if I was lucky enough to win one of the first legs of the double I will only have a Quartet (pick the first four in order) on Cup day and enjoy the ride.
I’ve only just gotten around to looking at El Nino/La Nina. According to the Bureau of Meteorology a El Nino event is starting to happen, and it will be a fairly dry spring.
This probably puts pay to the soft ground performers in my portfolio.
What is your source about
Eastern Anthem
possibly not travelling?
As he is now only entered for the Melbourne Cup, maybe he will travel over on the second flight?
I was going to ask whether Luca would bother to win the £600,000 to the winner Caulfield Cup with
Cima De Triomphe
, as apparently he would get about a 2kg penalty for the Cup, which may put pay to his chances. However, whilst I was contemplating this, news was published that Cumani is trying to secure the services of Damien Oliver. Having an outsider ride the horse means that he will go for the victory.
As you seem so keen on doing doubles, Cima De Triomphe seems to be available at about 31 to 41 for the Caulfield Cup. This seeems to be a reasonable choice, as the horse goes on fast ground, apparently, athough he has only ever run on it once (Derby Italiano), and will be definitely trying to get into the first eight, at least, to secure his Cup spot.
Edit: erm, how can Cumani get Oliver, if he is associated with Vigor?
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