Melbourne Cup 2009

Yes, they’re both still entered. More talk from Munsef’s trainer than Warringah’s though. If they were to run in a prep race in Australia, they ought to have already gone into quarantine.

Snoop knows all this stuff anyway – I’m just doing it as a project.

Actually, Kirklees got a RPR of 121 for his September Stakes performance, so ought to beat Cima De Triomphe by 3/4 length or so in the Caulfield Cup, if everything remains the same, which it never does, and by a length in the Melbourne Cup.

I ought to mention the most important thing first. I think I remember finding out that Kirklees is Mastery’s half-brother, but it hadn’t clicked that Mastery is Kirklees’s half-brother. Mastery is by Sulamani. By the way, Mastery has the classic dosage profile for a Classic winner. It is symmetrical, so he’s got a DI of 1 and a CD of 0. That strengthens my resolve to have my first ever bet in the St Leger next year.

I ain’t going into studying conformation, knee action and the like, as I’m no good at it. I also didn’t look at either horse’s past videos, as typically because of buffering it takes me 4 or 5 minutes to watch a 2 minute race.

Dosage Index
1.59 Viewed
1.75 Efficient
1.93 Delta Blues
2.30 Makybe Diva
1.83 Kirklees
1.29 Cima De Triomphe

Cima De Triomphe comes out as the stoutest. However, if Danehill were to be made a Chef-de-Race, which he ought, then CDT’s DI would increase.

Centre of Distribution
0.59 Viewed
0.36 Efficient
0.64 Delta Blues
0.58 Makybe Diva
0.59 Kirklees
0.29 Cima De Triomphe

Again, Kirklees’ and CGT’s CD is in the same ballpark as the past four Melbourne Cup winners, so whilst from a European perspective we might have doubts about them staying 2 miles, we may as well chuck those doubts out of the window.

Conduit Mare Profile Index
0.86 Viewed
0.62 Efficient
0.95 Delta Blues
0.92 Makybe Diva
0.65 Kirklees
0.59 Cima De Triomphe

Kirklees and CDT emerge on the stout side, despite Kirklees’ Granddam winning the Haydock Sprint Cup or whatever, and CDT’s 7th Dam being a 3/4 sister to Nasrullah.

Kirklees

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_ … _id=660811

http://www.pedigreequery.com/kirklees

Kirklees was trained by Mark Johnston as a 2yo. Presumably if he had remained there, he would be a relentless galloper, which you don’t want. He came 3rd in the Royal Lodge and then won a Group 1 in Italy.

He missed most of his 3yo season. He then missed most of his 4yo season as well!

Now a 5yo, or 6yo in the Southern Hemisphere. Was impressive in a 1m2f turf h’cap in Dubai. Then flopped in his biggest task to date when 12th in the Sheema Classic (1m4f turf). RP says drawn wide and keen early on, raced wide and didn’t get home.

Godolphin have managed to get him to settle in his last few races, and he does have a change of speed, and isn’t a relentless galloper.

25Jul09 York (10Gd ,RPR116)
He is entered in many races but the most likely option may be to go for the Juddmonte but we will see how things go. The horse is good enough to run in a mile-and-a-quarter Group 1. “I was very pleased with that. The horse has improved from last time when he won a listed race. I think this is the best trip for him, a mile and a quarter. He showed a good turn of foot – Saeed Bin Suroor

Saeed Bin Suroor:
“I am very pleased. He has improved from his last time,” he said.

“It’s best for him over a mile and a quarter he could come back here for the International. He’s good enough to win a Group 1.“

Same quote, but in one place it says win, and in another run. I think win is the correct word.[/color:gqhc0rm5]

Dettori said: “I decided to take the lead and kick on early.

“He’s a class horse. We’ve given him time to develop and he’s now a really nice horse.”

He added: “Perhaps, campaigning abroad, I think he’ll win a Group 1.”

05Sep09 Kempton (A.W) (12St ,RPR121)
He had to run somewhere this weekend, as he goes into quarantine on Tuesday, and I’m delighted we came here. He’s doing everything right at the moment and I was particularly pleased to see him settle so well, as he was too keen when he tried this trip in Dubai. He’ll go for the Caulfield Cup, and depending on what happens there he could run in the Melbourne Cup, although we aren’t too happy with the weight he’s been given and he’s also in the Cox Plate, back at a mile and a quarter.- Simon Crisford, racing manager

Simon Crisford (Godolphin website)
“We’re not too pleased with his weight in the Melbourne Cup but the Caulfield Cup is worth targeting anyway and we’ll see how he goes there. He’s doing everything right and I was pleased to see him settle so well today.”

David Carr, Racing Post
Crime Scene and Kirklees are also in the Cox Plate on October 24, with Kirklees considered the operation’s first choice with Frankie Dettori set for the ride.

I’m rather confused as to whether he’s going for the Caulfield Cup or the Cox Plate. I suppose it is the Caulfield Cup if they’re serious about the Melbourne Cup, or the Cox Plate if they want to get that G1 win.[/color:gqhc0rm5]

Cima De Triomphe

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_ … _id=692957

http://www.pedigreequery.com/cima+de+triomphe

Allo, c’est moi. I’m now using Google Chrome, instead of Mozilla Firefox or Internet Explorer.

Cima De Triomphe was running over 9f as a 2yo.

As a 3yo he won the Derby Italiano, and was 9th, beaten 6 lengths, in Zarkava’s Arc.

Then transferred to Cumani. Started off in the Prix Ganay, and then narrowly beat Conduuit, receiving weight, in the G3 Brigadier Gerard. Perhaps put in his place when 4th in the Eclipse.

The weird thing is, although the horse is said to prefer fast ground, it is down as having run on ground faster than Good only once.

There was a lot of humming and aahing from Cumani before the Eclipse (and after) as to what the next target would be. After that, I was expecting the King George, but he went for the Arlington Million instead. At that stage would Cumani have already been thinking of the Melbourne Cup, as victory would have given the horse automatic entry into the MC final field?

Francesca Cumani
Prolonged rainfall in Chicago after a period of dry and sunny weather which effectively ended the chances of Cima de Triomphe in the Arlington Million. Cima needs fast ground to be seen at his best and we had high hopes flying out with the expectation of firm ground; when we touched down, though, it had already started to rain and that rain continued on and off throughout the night. Walking the track after the first couple of races, the ground was at least the equivalent of good to soft over here, and if that wasn’t bad enough we didn’t receive the best of rides once under way either, Cima losing his place going into the final bend as things happened around him rather more quickly than his rider seemed to anticipate. To crown it all, Cima then got pushed badly wide off the final bend and it was race over. Whether we’d have beaten Gio Ponti granted faster ground and a clear run is a moot point now, seeing as he won so well, but lines of form through Stotsfold, who we’d beaten readily enough in the Brigadier Gerard at Sandown, suggest that we’d have been biting at his heels. He’s travelled back well, and will have a mini break, though we have no plans for him just now other than that.

Apparently, the Australian media is obsessed with Francesca Cumani. To my well-trained eye though, she needs a bit of building up, and needs to be put on a diet of weight training and doughnuts.

Conclusion
I think there is a greater possibility of Kirklees putting in an improved performance. I’m not sure Snoop whether you are primarily thinking of the Caulfield or the Melbourne Cup for these horses, but it doesn’t affect this decision. Not sure why you’re so obsessed with the European entries though. If you want to go for an overseas winner, try a Kiwi.

Munsef is definately going to Australia! I want to go as well, now…..c.mon Munsef…..

I think I have to have a bet on Daffodil, purely for the name…..can anyone tell me anything abour her

?

Don’t think that mares have a good record in the race [tend to overlook this because of Makybe Diva], but I’ve had a small ew anyway. European horses seem to have good place claims. Interesting what Snooperclyde has been saying. I never realised that it is very much a specialist race for specialist horses and trainers..had never likened it to the Grand National before, either. Having backed a horse purely because of it’s name I was tempted to have a small ew on Mr Tipsy as well with wonderful visions of an equine version of Sir Les Patterson!

Well; you back all the ones that might win…and I’ll back all the ones with silly names………