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1st run back Coutts Goodwood Cup (Group 2) 2800m
Mourilyan (IRE)
Dwelt, held up in last trio, good progress from over 4f out to chase winner well over 2f out, hard ridden and hanging right but closed to 1 length down 150yds out, no impression after (op 15-2)2nd to Schiaparelli with a further 11L to the Betchworth Kid in a fast run race.
2nd run CGA Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) 2700m
Mourilyan (IRE)
In rear, pushed along and headway to chase leaders from 3f out, went 2nd 2f out but never any chance with winner, weakened inside final furlong (op 100-30, tchd 9-2 in a place)4/8 beaten 6L by Kite Wood off a slowish early pace and a sprint home.
3rd run – Windflower March Stakes (Listed Race) 2800m
Mourilyan
Held up in rear, steady headway 3f out, not clear run and switched right to inside over 1f out, quickened to lead final 110yds, readily (op 7-2 tchd 100-30)Won by 3L.
Dosage of 1.11 and CD of 0.15 which is about perfect for a horse with a sprint finish
Okay Snoop, under your advisement, I’ve speculated on Nom Du Jeu for the Cox Plate. No fancy prices though – £5 @ 85.
I wish it was possible to change my betfair settings, so that it warns me when I’m betting a horse less than 100, instead of more than 100.
Made the bet because my only other Cox Plate bet is £2 @ 100 Kirklees, and he is looking likely to go Caulfield Cup and then God knows what.
I quite like Predatory Pricer(Cox)at about 11/1 on betfair, but I’m waiting until the weekend is over to see how many pennies I’ve got (or not) left to bet with.
Capecover
was a blowout, coming fourth, and if the trainer keeps his word, he is no longer going the Cups route. (Racewinner is still too low to get into race.)
Rather a good job he’s out of the picture, as I don’t have any pennies on him.
I was interested in this:-
When questioned C Williams rider of Capecover (NZ) explained to the Stewards that he settled back to the rear of the field which is the gelding’s normal racing pattern and then attempted to improve his position passing the 700m but could not make ground when the pace quickened at that stage. C Williams added that Capecover (NZ) commenced to make ground under hard riding approaching the home turn and elected to follow Britomart through the field rather than making a long sustained run seven wide approaching the home turn. C Williams further added that he was then held up for a short distance behind Britomart after passing the 300m and then had to shift out at the entrance to the straight to obtain clear running. C Williams further stated that he notified the trainer he believes it will be in Capecover’s (NZ) best interest to be ridden more closer as he believes the gelding is being disadvantaged racing at the rear of the field.[/color:59e9xe9t]
I know that in Australia that racing styles are lodged with the authorities in advance, but surely if it is a slow pace the jockey can still employ his initiative to be closer to the pace?
I’m almost ready to roll with a few Cup stats, which is a good job as it is a major weekend coming up.
In terms of bets, the good news is that I’ve had £16.64 @ 11 on Roman Emperor coming placed 1,2,3 in the MC. I think this is a cracking bet – the horse is almost certain to run, and ought to be in the shake-up.
The bad news is that I’ve ventured a tenner at a hundred on Whobegotyou for the MC.
A bit speculative. Some (most) think he won’t stay. Also, the trainer looked after the horse at the end of the last season. Will he also look after the horse this season, by rejecting the MC after the Cox. I think he can (or won’t need to) stay 3200m. (There won’t be many horses in the race wanting to ensure that it is truly run.)Just heard the trainer of Whobegotyou being interviewed on the radio. When asked about the possibility of Whobegotyou running in the Melbourne Cup his first two words of reply were "Why not?". He then went back a bit and said the things that trainers say, about it being a long time between now and then, seeing what the horse was like after the Cox Plate etc
Not looking like such a totally stupid bet anymore.
Isn’t the draw quite important?; I read that a low to middle draw is preferable
6f to the first bend gives the outside horses a good chance to find good running but if your horse is caught wide around that first bend it is almost curtains for him.
Okay Snoop, under your advisement, I’ve speculated on Nom Du Jeu for the Cox Plate. No fancy prices though – £5 @ 85.
Made the bet because my only other Cox Plate bet is £2 @ 100 Kirklees, and he is looking likely to go Caulfield Cup and then God knows what.
I quite like Predatory Pricer(Cox)at about 11/1 on betfair, but I’m waiting until the weekend is over to see how many pennies I’ve got (or not) left to bet with.
Capecover
was a blowout, coming fourth, and if the trainer keeps his word, he is no longer going the Cups route.
I’m almost ready to roll with a few Cup stats, which is a good job as it is a major weekend coming up.
In terms of bets, the good news is that I’ve had £16.64 @ 11 on Roman Emperor coming placed 1,2,3 in the MC. I think this is a cracking bet – the horse is almost certain to run, and ought to be in the shake-up.
The bad news is that I’ve ventured a tenner at a hundred on Whobegotyou for the MC.
A bit speculative. Some (most) think he won’t stay.Nom Du Jeu
is as short as 30/1 for the Cox Plate with Double Bet. $85 is good for a Group 1 winner.
If he wins on Saturday then expect 15/1 available in Australia. Betfair offer great odds!Kirklees
is CC bound according to the stables traveling forman and the CP is one week later. Maldivian won the Cox last year after running in the CC. His CC run was not too taxing though.
Predatory Pricer
is a good chance in the Cox but now connections seem to have him running in the CC the week before. It is too much for most horses to back up 1 week later, rarely achieved.
Capecover
was a blowout, coming fourth.
Tricky track to run on and win from behind. Some trainers insist a horse be ridden a certain way so the jockey was more or less saying he had to ride to instructions. Not sure if they will press on towards the Cups though as the field was very weak although stranger things have happened.Roman Emperor
is a good bet, should run the distance no problem.
Whobegotyou
is a super horse but I would not bet on him in the MC, Cox Plate he will be the horse to beat.
http://www.sport927.com.au/Sport927_liv … ort927.asx4.30 am BST Randwick 2000m G3
Nom De Jeu
is on trial for the Cox Plate, and it has been said that he has to win comfortably for his trainer to bother with the Plate. Essentially, the bet on NdJ for the Plate is a double, with this race as the first leg.
4.42 am BST Hastings – Kelt Capital 2040m G1
Daffodil
is the 2/1 favourite, and
Harris Tweed
is 10/1.
4.50 am Flemington 2500m Listed Bart Cummings
Ista Kareem
and
Light Vision
Gosh, we’ve got time to cook breakfast!
6.30am BST Randwick 2400m G1 Metropolitan H’cap
Fiumicino
Zavite
Newport
Guyno
Ready To Lift
(Mr Clangtastic)
Six O’Clock News
Speed Gifted
Tinseltown6.50am BST Flemington 2000m G1 Turnbull Stakes
Viewed
Maldivian
Zipping
Efficient
Master O’Reilly
C’Est La Guerre
Vigor
Roman Emperor
Predatory Pricer
El Segundo
Red RulerI’ve had bets on Predatory Pricer because I think he’ll win a 10f G1 sometime, its just a question of which one
, and on Red Ruler because he is well-in.There are lots of other Listed and Pattern races at these meetings as well.
I think Whobegotyou is running next weekend instead – unless I’ve got a blind spot and overlooked him!
In addition, our friend,
Fist Of Fury
, is running in the 7.30 BST 1200m G2, with Hugh Bowman on board.
Heck; I’m working tomorrow…..just got time to get my stuff ready, watch the Madness concert on BBC4 at 10.40, and get a few hours sleep…..will set the alarm. Will this link work for the Melbourne Cup as well? I usually listen to it on a crackly radio [adds to the atmosphere…]
Try it now Moe for a few minutes. The fishing programme has finished
, and the morning racing show has started.When it comes to the actual racing, they just go from race-to-race as they seem to be supported by the TAB, and there isn’t much editorial comment until after racing is over.
of course they’ll have the Melbourne Cup.
Heck during the afternoon they broadcast racing from britain, France and South Africa.
Speed Gifted
gets his 2400m win to pass the first hurdle for the Melbourne Cup. I tried posting about him a few days ago, but gave up after I crashed the PC. I believe that the win doesn’t automatically qualify him for the Caulfield Cup, and I think he might still need a penalty to get into it. Similar story with the Melbourne Cup itself (can’t find my figures).
Speed Gifted was about 63rd in the Caulfield Cup order, and I think a 1kg penalty would bring him up to 36th/32nd. He has gone from 79th to 48th in the order for the Melbourne Cup. A 1 kg penalty for example would bring him up to about 36th. (Penalties will be announced within the next 5 days.)
Efficient
wins, and goes into favouritism for the MC.
Predatory Pricer
2nd.(I posted an article about Efficient on the One for Royal Ascot thread – there are dreams about coming over for the Gold Cup!)
Nom Du Jeu had a bumping dual at the top of the straight and his run was good overall so he may still line up in the Cox Plate yet. He was still quite fresh and raced more forward than normal.
Speed Gifted was a massive win and he will get at least 1kg for the win, could even get 1.5kgs!
Caulfield Cup start is almost a sure thing and then he need only run well and the MC start will follow.Efficient looks back to his best so I hope you had a saver on him as I suggested at the start of this thread.
He will be the horse to beat in the Cup even with 58kgs.
Efficient will not run in the CC as to avoid any penalty so the Cox Plate will be his next run.Master O’Reilly was a late scratching and it was reported that he had an elevated temperature. This is a set back for most of my doubles. Will wait and see what eventuates there.
Snoop, Efficient is about 24 for the Cox Plate. That seems to be a bit big to me. Am I missing something? Will it be that he won’t actually be trying to win, and will just be hacking around as a prep for the Big ‘Un?
Munce Gets Caulfield Cup Assurance
Story By Chris Scholtz
Monday, 5 October 2009: Chris Munce is set to make his first appearance in Melbourne since returning to riding after receiving an assurance that Kiwi mare
Daffodil
is on target to start in the $2.5 million Caulfield Cup on Saturday week.
Munce was anxious to get a post race report on Daffodil after the AJC Oaks winner finished fourth as favourite in the Group One Kelt Capital Stakes at Hastings in New Zealand on Saturday.
He contacted the mare’s owner Gary Chittick on Sunday and was reassured that Daffodil is booked to be flown to Melbourne next weekend and will be stabled at Flemington.
Chittick told Munce that Daffodil’s fourth was an excellent Caulfield Cup trial as the race pattern went against her and she did not enjoy a good run.
Munce was booked to ride Daffodil, trained by Kevin Gray, in the Caulfield Cup two weeks ago after Racing Victoria approved his application for a riding licence.
Racing Victoria upheld the ban placed on Munce by the Hong Kong Jockey Club after he completed a 20-month jail term for his involvement in a tips for bets scam in Hong Hong.
Racing NSW allowed Munce to resume riding upon his release from prison last year despite the HKJC disqualification that expired last month.
Just for the record, and the sake of the thread, I’ll mention a couple of things that people will probably have already come across elsewhere.
Speed Gifted
has a 2kg penalty, and will get into the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup. However, he might end up running in the Cox Plate instead of the Caulfield.
Profound Beauty
is a withdrawal, despite paying the money for the second declarations yesterday.
I’m waiting for an updated Order Of Ballot later this week before adding anything significant (in size).
Kirklees
had an elevated temperature after the flight, that was treated with antibiotics. Him and CdT have started galloping.
Second flight of Euro challengers arrive on Saturday.
Both
Warringah
and
Changingoftheguard
are still in the Cup, despite supposedly not being aimed at it this year.
I took 100/1 about Light Vision winning the Melbourne Cup having read up on him and his likely targets etc.
Having asked a few Aussie mates (and been told he has no chance) a couple more things worry me – off hand i think the Cup is often won by a horse that comes from off/mid pace and he’s a front runner (albeit one who can rate). Interesting to see how the next 3 weeks go – if he can run well in the Caulfield Cup he’ll shorten even more
Snoop, Efficient is about 24 for the Cox Plate. That seems to be a bit big to me. Am I missing something? Will it be that he won’t actually be trying to win, and will just be hacking around as a prep for the Big ‘Un?
Efficient is some chance in the Cox Plate and I am sure connections will try to win.
The good price is due to him having to come from well back and Mooney valley has a short straight.
I think an each way bet is well worth the gamble because I think they will set him alight early to move within striking distance ala Makybe Diva when she won the Plate.
A bit speculative. Some (most) think he won’t stay. Also, the trainer looked after the horse at the end of the last season. Will he also look after the horse this season, by rejecting the MC after the Cox. I think he can (or won’t need to) stay 3200m. (There won’t be many horses in the race wanting to ensure that it is truly run.)
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