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Sea the Stars thumped Fame and Glory in the Irish champion.
He looks a sure thing in the Arc unless he comes to trouble.
Smearing egg all over my face, but I take back the "sure thing".
After watching STS Derby over a few times, he had the run of the race and RVW was closing while having to go around other runners. The win was good but the race could not have been run more to the liking of STS.
I also noticed STS pull his head to the right in the last 50 metres – like a horse at the end of his run. The only question being was his fitness the cause (second run this campaign) or was it his stamina. The latter must put some doubt on his ability to Sea the Arc…out.
The Arc is sure to be run at a genuine pace so any chinks in his stamina will be exposed.
It makes for a fascinating race.
Sea the Stars thumped Fame and Glory in the Irish champion.
He looks a sure thing in the Arc unless he comes to trouble.
Well Schiaparelli is out so down the tube goes about two thousand in all sorts of bets.
I still have "Whobegotyou" (raging favorite) in the Cox Plate into "Eastern Anthem" in the Melbourne Cup @ 250/1, 12.5k result.
Time will tell if Schiaparelli deserved my admiration, but I am confident that his best is soon to come and just maybe, the decision to miss Australia will be regretful.
The agony might turn to ecstasy.
Schiaparelli among entries for Irish Field St Leger
If this eventuates and he tackles Profound Beauty and Changingoftheguard then a good result could = Melbourne Cup.
This quote from Wikipedia
There is presently a bonus prize of AUD $500,000 offered to any winner who subsequently wins the Melbourne Cup in the same year.
Just for interest the following ballot numbers.
BALLOT HISTORY
2008 3 Ballots
2007 7 Ballots
2006 7 Ballots
2005 1 Ballot
2004 6 Ballots
2003 2 Ballots
2002 1 Ballot
2001 10 Ballots
2000 6 Ballots
1999 1 Ballot
1998 8 Ballots
1997 0 Ballots (22 Acceptors)
1996 8 Ballots
1995 0 Ballots (21 Acceptors)
1994 4 Ballots
1993 4 BallotsJust read on the betfair forum that a top 8 finish in the Caulfield Cup guarantees a line-up in the Melburne Cup (so long as you’re entered).
Is that true?
If it is, it makes a nightmare of trying to work out who’ll end up running in the race.
The prize money is paid back to tenth place in the Melbourne cup = true.
The statement on betfair forum = nonsense.
The winner of the following, if any should be a nomination and a first, second, third and final acceptor for the 2009 Emirates Melbourne Cup, shall be exempt from any ballot on this race:
– 2009 VRC Saab Quality
– 2009 AAMI Victoria Derby
– 2009 Crown Mackinnon Stakes
– 2009 MVRC Cox Plate
– 2009 MRC Caulfield Cup
– 2009 Doncaster Cup (UK)
– 2009 Irish St Leger (IRE)
– 2009 Tenno Sho (Spring) (JPN)
– 2009 Arlington Million (USA)
– 2009 San Juan Capistrano (USA)
– 2009 ARB Australian Stayers ChallengeHope this clears any confusion Gerald
I will watch this race with interest.
Eastern Anthem holds the key to Schiaparelli coming to Australia. What I’m not sure of is whether a win of flop will help the hosiery named gallop-er come "down under".
I’m leaning towards a flop but?????
Snoop, can you give an indication of how often the Handicapper will issue a penalty for the Melbourne Cup, and when we will find out about them? For instance, would
Vigor get a penalty for the Makybe Diva performance[/color:1ks9nmrl]
, or will it be ignored as it was only over a mile (I think).
Also, there are races the winners of which are excluded from the MC ballot.
Can you confirm that they are only excluded from the ballot between horses carrying the same weight, rather than getting an automatic entry into the race?[/color:1ks9nmrl]
1) VIGOR won a weight for age race so no penalty, this race excludes the winner from the Caulfield Cup ballot only.
2) The winner of a race with a ballot entry is automatically exempt from the ballot of said race, the weight allocated is irrelevant.
Net result VIGOR will run in weight for age races to avoid any further weight penalty and hope he wins a race with a ballot for the MC. The CC winner however (handicap) will attract a penalty, usually 2kgs and capped at 3kgs.
SPEED GIFTED will be hoping for a penalty to ensure his place in the Feature races. (I would expect a penalty between 0 and 1kgs for his win in this race).
The penalties are usually declared within a few days of the race and I will post any issued.
In Cup news from the weekend racing in Oz.
VIGOR was extremely impressive when he won the Makybe Diva stakes over 1 mile in smart time. Three wide in running, surged to the lead in the straight, headed and then battling with the very smart mare TYPHOON TRACEY to win by a nostril.
MASTER O’REILLY
(MC $24 Betstar)[/color:21up8dhz] third and
C’EST LA GUERRE
(= $11 favorite Betstar for MC)[/color:21up8dhz] fourth put in eye catching runs.
Now while the win was excellent, the time was good and the weight VIGOR has been allotted in the Melbourne cup is light (51kgs), history suggests that the late closing horses in this race are better performed than the winner from a MC point of view. The Cox Plate or Caulfield Cup is a better guide for the winner. Note VIGOR was an eye catching runner when third at his 1st start this season at 6f.
VIGOR is a second to none chance in the Caulfield Cup. Should now be favorite IMO. (Edit is now $6 favorite for CC, $15 for CP and $13 for MC with Betstar)
[/color:21up8dhz]
The other performance to black book wasSPEED GIFTED
1st up over 1700 metres (1m + 100 metres).
An easy 2 length winner in H/cap class, the effort had Melbourne Cup hope written all over it. (Edit $10 for CC, $34 for CP and $13 for MC with Betstar)[/color:21up8dhz]Looked in the archive. I don’t understand why this story isn’t part of Schiaparelli’s file.
Actually it is. I just needed to click on Archive.
Schiaparelli’s target is a moving target ATM. He is entered for so many top races, the Godolphin team have all bases covered. Yet his page on the Godolphin site has no reference to his medium term plans, just the entry for Doncaster 11/9. I have been following his page daily and am reasonably sure he will run in this race of 2 1/4 miles and not the Foy.
It would seem unlikely to then drop back to the 1 1/2 mile Arc or the Caulfield Cup. So the fork in the road would be MC or Cudran.
I thought it was a given that Schiaparelli was Cadran bound? I’m 99% sure they mentioned running in ‘the big one on Arc weekend’ after he won a Group 2 in France a fortnight ago.
I knew he was entered but thought his current form warranted a trip to the Melbourne Cup where the $3.3 million Aussie was on offer for the winner.
The Cadran is worth about 143k Euro’s (240k Aussie) to the winner I think.
Maybe they want to test his stamina for the Ascot Gold Cup next year?
The race has changed these days, international runners have come and now our best horses are running because of the Aussie trainers pride.
Light weight chances were all the rage 15 years ago, now it takes a great horse at the top of their game to win. I could not be confident a horse with less than 52 kgs will get a run. This year is different, less entries, early injuries and false entries (horses that were never intended to run ie Maldivian) pave the way for a light weight chance. However the top weight is only 58 kgs so this evens out the chances. The answer is a 51 kgs horse could be in the mix come November, but he/she will have to be at the top of their game.
It now is a punters race, good horse, good form = good result. The lack of 2 mile races in Australia is a concern.
While the winning record of European stayers is not great, the placings all the way back to eight show how it is only a matter of time before a string of Northern Hemisphere winners occurs.This year the Cup will go abroad IMO.
Snoop, you shouldn’t have said that last bit – I feel guilty now. I wasn’t kidding when I said I’m the worst tipster here. I made a profit in Dec, Jan, Feb and April, but that was down to 1 horse, 1 horse, 1horse and 2 horses.
You only tipped me one horse so this fits in well with your average. Realistically your research makes perfect sense. King of Rome will not have the sort of prep that I would like but at those odds he is more than worth a few dollars just in case. It’s all good!
May as well give me a few more tips so the average is attainable
Schiaparelli is drifting like he is in the biblical Ark, in the modern Arc.
Surely he is bound for Australia…………surely!
King of Rome is @ 70/1 with the TAB Australia for the Caulfield Cup.
80/1 for the Melbourne Cup.
Excellent research Gerald, he has 54kgs so will get a run for sure.
I can find nothing he is entered for anywhere (France, Germany or the USA) so either they have no set plan, he has had an injury concern or Melbourne is the only plan
Only negative is someone is prepared to lose big on him at 100/1 for both races on betfair. No money has come for him in the Caulfield Cup and only $69 in the Melbourne Cup.
Will speck him in the doubles just in case your hunch is correct.
cheers
Is there any interest in the Melbourne Cup or am I just posting my own thoughts.
Right now? Probably not. You can’t blame the TRF audience for choosing the Irish Champion, Prix du Moulin, St Leger, Arc and pre-season NH talk over the Melbourne Cup.
Of course you are pointing out the obvious, the interest may grow as the race gets nearer.
I can’t help myself, I study furiously to find the winning chances early so as to get great odds for my doubles bets.
Last year I had "All the Good" to win the CC – MC double for 180k and this year I have loaded up on Schiaparelli. While the numbers sound big the outlay is modest when the multiplied odds are 806/1, but getting the double is quite a challenge. Only five times have I been able get both legs to win a handy profit and twice through misfortune I have missed the huge payload. Schiaparelli is the right type to get the double, is racing extremely well and still has scope for improvement IMO. The MC is his best chance and I have three of the favorites in the Cox Plate into Schiaparelli.
The betting in the UK suggests he will not run in the Arc, the betting suggests he is Melbourne bound.
Time will tell.
The South Australian trained 2008 VRC Victoria Derby, and 2009 SA Derby, winner
Rebel Raider is out of further spring racing after a bone chip
in a rear fetlock joint was discovered after trackwork on Wednesday.
Co-trainer Leon Macdonald confirmed on Thursday that an operation was required and that would mean that the four-year-old Reset entire would miss the spring, and he was doubtful about an autumn campaign as well after Rebel Raider not adapting to the Sydney way of the racing in his 2009 autumn racing.
Macdonald said that the injury was noticed after Rebel Raider’s trackwork on Wednesday and subsequent x-rays showed the bone chip. It was expected that surgery would be undertaken to remove the chip.
“I do not think that there is any doubt that he will recover fully from it, especially being a hind leg, but it has just come at a bad time,” said Macdonald on Sport 927.
“There is still a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and the Melbourne Cup, we all know that, but you do not very often get into a race where you think you might have a chance,” he said.
Macdonald said that if Rebel Raider had ‘run and won well’ then an international campaign would have been considered.
But that this would now be also on hold with Macdonald saying that the horse would have had to prove himself before any such campaign. Connections were considering a possible trip taking in the Dubai World Cup meeting in Dubai, and then onto England.
Rebel Raider was quoted at $21.00 for the BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m), and he was second equal with Viewed and Efficient (NZ) on $14, behind Irish mare Profound Beauty on $11.00 for the Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m).
His opening race of the spring was in the listed Penny Edition over an unsuitable 1400m on August 22nd, with a third the result, and that will be the extent of this year’s campaign. Already a dual Group 1 winner after his Victoria and SA Derby wins, Rebel Raider also has the Group 3 Sires’ Produce over 1600m, and listed Chairman’s Stakes over 2000m, both at Morphettville, to his credit.
Overall Rebel Raider’s race record to-date is 16 races for five wins and four placings, with stakes of $1.3m.
