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Alexander Of Hales (where did Volta come from?)
I just cut and paste the article, thought it might be of use to those thinking of taking the juicy odds for Septimus in the Ark. Might be better to keep the cash in your pockets.
As of October 1 I become a journalist for international racing.[/color:1fet48tm]
You have time to practice some restraint then Miles.
The rest appear to be one-paced stayers
You should watch ALL THE GOOD win at his last start. It was a most impressive turn of foot. It appears to be a stark jump in his ability based on his previous runs. He has hit peak form but the question is can he hold that form until the first tuesday in November?
Feel like I jumped into a tub of boiling water!
Dosage does get the blood boiling, especially you Miles.
Slow down its just a conversation, and we can agree to disagree about the value of dosage. I did write in capitals "it’s only a guide".
I did not venture into the common knowledge as it is freely available and does back up my claim that the Hussler will not stay two miles.
Hussonet’s Australian stakes winners
Dirty – BTC Vo Rogue Plate 1350m
Huiskes – TRC Elwick Stakes 1100m
Husson Lightning – VRC Maribyrnong Plate 1000m
Reaan – MRC Blue DiamondStakes + the Preview 1200m + 1000m
Rios – WRC Wellington Guineas + Bonecrusher 1500m + 1400m
And Weekend Hussler – Ascot Vale 1200m, Oakleigh Plate 1100m, Randwick guineas 1600m, Newmarket 1200m, George Rider 1500m, Caulfield guineas 1600m all Group One races and Group Two Memsie 1400m and his last start Makybe Diva stakes 1600m in 1.38 and change on a good surface. Your average maiden winner can beat that time so that tells the story of how it was run.
Now don’t get cross with me I think he is a superstar………. The way he is going he will surpass the brilliant Lonhro and maybe even Sunline but he will have to prove that first.
Now you prove to me that there has been a Melbourne Cup winner or a stayer in Europe or the USA that can win the premier sprint races (Newmarket and Oakleigh Plate) in the nation as well.
The immortal Makybe Diva herself one first up over 1400m but even she would not place in the Oakleigh or the Newmarket.The Chile runners of Hussonet I note have won Derby’s times three, and one Oaks winner also numerous sprinters but not one Cup winner that I can trace.
As Hussonet was only an moderate runner you must ignore him and go by his parentage to get a true guide anyway.
Sal the second dam Not on Friday won group two 1600m so the staying ability will be all down to Helissio. Can his influence get the two miles?
A false favorite for you Spitfire, well he is high up in the betting.
Weekend Hussler in the Melbourne Cup.
As Sal says, the female influences (and not just the tail female line) in a pedigree are given no weight at all in determining a horses ‘likely distance requirements. So that’s 50% of a horse’s pedigree written off before you’ve even got started [/color:y0084tfu]
As in the explanation above
SADLERS WELLS is classic/solid, his sire Northern Dancer was brilliant/classic and his sire Nearctic brilliant.
The change in the classifications down the sire line was influenced directly by the mare’s.
This is proof enough that the ladies have a signifigant influence !
FAIRY BRIDGE must have had a greater influence in sadlers Wells than the great Northern Dancer. NATALMA more than Nearctic.
Even if the dams evaluation is concluded through the men in her pedigree her ability to pass on the dominant genes is undeniable.
Sal, I agree completely with your concerns about the female input.
But for all the short comings of the dosage system I have found it to be reasonably accurate when predicting distance aptitude."As Hussonet is not a chef-de-race himself"
Hussonet has been a fantastic sire, but like many of the worlds best sire’s he has not been classified a "chef de race" as yet.
And how, exactly, does a stallion become a "chef"?
Venusian, in laymans terms it is much like this as I understand it.
You put big rocks, little rocks and sand into a machine.
If the product coming out the other end is all sand then you have a crusher (chef de race).
If the product comes out big rocks, little rocks and sand then there has been no real change in the product from the ingredients.Many of the great sire’s produce quality black type performers but do not generally change the input the mare has contributed in relation to distance aptitude. In this case the mare’s influence is recognised as more potent in relation to distance aptitude, conversley the sire has had little impact.
A "chef de race" like SADLER’S WELLS classic-solid by NORTERN DANCER brilliant-classic, shows that the majority of mares that mated with SADLER’S WELLS returned progeny that were 2000m – 3200m performers no matter what the mare’s influence (a speed mare was still likely to produce classic-solid performing offspring).
There are many that defy this pattern but it must be a signifigant number of progeny to be influenced for a sire to become a chef.
The sire can have a certain influence to his direct progeny only to be proven some what a different influence as a broodmare sire, hence the dual classification.I used to grapple with the classification of sire’s and the seaming lack of respect placed on other better sire’s until the penny dropped and I understood the fundimentals of the system.
REMEMBER IT IS ONLY A GUIDE
Line breeding, dosage etc are no use in predicting quality. That is the job of your eye and most champions have that undetectable will to win that makes them great and unfortunately or fortunately, that is the great unknown no matter the size of your wallet.
Past Melbourne Cup winners dosage – consider a mile and a half horse is considered the correct type. I use 1-9 to indicate at which end of the scale they sit. (ie sprinter 9 and miler 1 are close in distance where as sprinter 1 and miler 9 are well apart)
2007 Efficient = stayer 2
2006 Delta Blues = middle distance 7.5
2003 – 2005 Makybe Diva = miler 6
2002 Media Puzzle = middle distance 5
2001 Ethereal = miler 6
2000 Brew = middle distance 7We can go on but you will not find a sprinter
Weekend Hussler = early sprinter!!!!!
Yeats = stayer 2
Septimus = stayer 1SCHIAPARELLI = middle distance 5
My latest info is that the Arc is more likely for schiaparelli.
Septimus’ staying pattern could be deceiving
What is decieving is the handicapper did not apply a penalty to Septimus because he questioned the quality of his opposition in the St Leger.
A Group One race………..they are never just a walk in the park.
Septimus did it with all the authority of a great thoroughbred. I am happy he didn’t recieve a penalty because he already has 58kgs and that is a big enough impost in the Cup anyway.Aiden playing mind games to make sure the quarantine officials give him permission to train him how he likes at ballydoyle. All reports suggest it worked beautifully.
He’s Melbourne bound alright, just look at the markets. Someone bet 65k to win a million dollars at centrebet in Australia. That sort of money does not get placed on a hunch!
Septimus will not need a turn of foot if he is in front six furlongs out and can maintain full speed to the finish. The hurdle is that the fast early pace takes its toll on the dour types. It usually takes most of their speed just to reach the front and then they become sitting ducks for the swoopers.
On the face of it he does look to have some staying blood in his veins.
But when applying the dosage figure on "TesioPower" he comes up a sprinter. For those who are not familiar with dosage then the following link will be very helpful.http://www.chef-de-race.com/main_menu.htm
Briefly it is what a sire passes to his progeny not what the sire himself was able to do on a race track.
Hussonet, the sire of Weekend Hussler is by Mr Prospector a brilliant-classic infuence while Hussonet’s dam sire Raja Baba has passed brilliant-intermediate speed to his progeny.
Weekend Husslers dam is by Helissio a son of Fairy King who like Mr Prospector is rated brilliant-classic. Helissio’s dam sire slewpy transmits brilliant speed.
At Talaq, his grandam sire won the Melbourne cup in 1986 but he has passed intermediate speed to his progeny, this is at the core of why Weekend Hussler will not stay two miles. The only genuine staying influence is the third dam’s sire Grosvenor. He is rated classic-solid but this is well back in the pedigree.
Although his dosage suggests he is a sprinter it is only a guide as some horses defy their dosage figure. It is however most often very accurate and the horses that defy the dosage do not go completely opposite.Summary
2000m he is likely to win on class alone.
Group One Cox Plate 2040m I would have little confidence but it may be possible.
2400m Caufield Cup – I am a Maldivian fan and have backed him to beat the Hussler.
3200m Melbourne Cup as I said lay him all dayI Study the overseas entries, then rate them, then watch for signs that they may seriously be considering the Cup.
SCHIAPARELLI had not been sighted in any news and had not raced, yet the Godolphin team paid up for him for the Cup at the first declaration stage.
I was well aware of his credential’s, how well related he is, and a high class mile and a half horse in Europe is more the type to win the Melbourne cup than the genuine European stayers.
For example ROGAN JOSH the 1999 winner, who’s career wins of thirteen, has four 1400m victories included. He won a Group One 2000m race three days before the Melbourne Cup Victory. This is not unusual amoung Cup winners.Would SEPTIMUS win a Group One 2000m race?
Does he have enough turn of foot?He certainly can grind the life out of his opponents, that’s for sure, but the Cup will be run quite differently to what he is used to.
I use YEATS as the example, he ran seventh, and he is of equal stature to SEPTIMUS.
Champion dour type stayers, over the years, have come but failed to win. They often run well but are not ideally suited. I have lost many times betting on them. Conversely I would hate to see an Aussie stayer try to win a 3200m race in Europe, it could be ugly..SCHIAPARELLI has what it takes to win in my oppinion. I rate him as he has a race record superior to POP ROCK and runs on the pace like DELTA BLUES.
The local favorites I don’t like!
EFFICIENT is being trained to European methods. No disrespect to Lloyd Williams and Co but they lack the expertise of the European Trainers.
WEEKEND HUSTLER is bred to sprint, and he is very good at it, but he has never raced beyond 1600m and will not run the 3200m. He is the best lay bet of all time for the Melbourne Cup.
Godolphin have previously run more than one entrant in the Cup. In 2001 Give The Slip was well clear 1 furlong out and would have won if not for the international jockey running him in the soft section of the straight. Marienbard was the main hope of the Godolphin stable that year.
Aiden however refuses to run Septimus against Yeats. I watched Septimus win the St Leger with ease but was concerned that he was slowing considerably in the last furlong……….A melbourne Cup winner will have to be doing his best work on the line……..that’s a given…….The stayers go hard a long way from home in your part of the world but don’t appear to have much top end speed. You will need a pace maker to apply pressure to the locals 10 furlongs out to utilize that stamina.Cormack15, that is the info I have been searching for…….. Will check the race results……it’s 11.37 pm in Aust.
